2016 NFL MVP Odds: Why Tom Brady is a Lock to Win
Every year the race for the NFL MVP award is an interesting one to follow. Whether it’s due to amazing numbers, dominant performance or a player’s impact on his team’s extraordinary success, the MVP usually is pretty darn deserving.
Through the first half of the 2016 NFL season, it looks like we might have a clear front-runner. The weird part? It’s probably a guy who has played in just four games.
Tom Terrific For MVP?
It’s odd to imagine New England Patriots star quarterback Tom Brady winning the league MVP award, seeing as he sat out the first four games of the year due to suspension and his team even went 3-1 without him.
However, the Pats have been an unstoppable force ever since his return, notching big wins over the Bengals, Steelers and Bills while easily dispatching the Browns in Brady’s initial game back.
Tom Brady for MVP is astonishingly a landslide thus far, and it’s not just about wins, numbers or performance. It’s all of the above.
Halfway through the NFL season, and it would appear that the MVP award is Tom Brady’s to lose. https://t.co/jkMguwl4cE
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 7, 2016
Through just four games, Brady has been unflappable, producing 12 touchdowns against zero turnovers during a 4-0 run. Brady has been playing on another level than even he is accustomed to, as well, with a ridiculous 73% completion rate and three games with over 300 yards passing.
Even crazier than Brady’s numbers and team success during this short span is that he still has another eight games to go in order to prove this isn’t just a tiny blip on the NFL MVP radar. In eight additional games, it boggles the mind to wonder what Brady could do to enhance his already growing 2016 NFL MVP odds.
Top NFL MVP Contenders
Of course, some may suggest Tom Brady winning the 2016 NFL MVP award isn’t (or won’t be) a walk in the park.
Perhaps Brady will slow down, or maybe he hasn’t played enough games or understandably, a four-game stretch isn’t selling everyone on Brady claiming the MVP honors just yet.
That all makes sense, plus it’s fair to say Brady is far from the only NFL player who has been crushing skulls and taking names in 2016.
Here’s a nice list of quality NFL MVP contenders we all need to consider, accompanied by their latest NFL MVP odds, per Bovada:
- Tom Brady, QB, Patriots +125
- Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons +550
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys +750
- Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys +1200
- Derek Carr, QB, Raiders +1200
- David Johnson, RB, Cardinals +2000
Of this group, the two contenders that feel the most serious are Ezekiel Elliott and Derek Carr.
Both of these guys have their teams at the top of their divisions, with Dallas sitting pretty in the NFC East at 7-1 and the Raiders just earning a huge win over the Broncos to take over first place in the AFC West at 7-2.
Carr is fresh off a huge 500+ yard game in week eight and has put up strong numbers over the course of the season while putting the Silver and Black back on the NFL map.
It’s tough to shrug all of that off, but it’s just as difficult to ignore Zeke, who is on pace to vie for the league rookie rushing record and also carry the Cowboys back into the playoffs.
You could make a case for some of these other guys, but Carr and Elliott have both been impressive and have their teams in about as good of shape as Brady has his Pats.
Right now, with week nine about to be in the books, this feels like a three-way race, with perhaps Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott barely on the outside, looking in.
2016 NFL MVP Prediction
We can really only lean on what we know now. Right now, Vegas loves Tom Brady the most when it comes to the 2016 NFL MVP odds, largely because he’s been immaculate since returning, clearly has a chip on his shoulder and has his team looking like the top Super Bowl contender in the entire league.
The big question is two-fold: can the likes of Carr, Elliott and the others keep putting up numbers while helping their teams remain elite playoff contenders? And will it be enough to dethrone Brady if he also keeps piling on big numbers?
It’s a fair question, but one thing is probably certain: we can probably forget about guys who are all numbers right now. David Johnson, Philip Rivers and the like have been great, but they aren’t in a great spot to get to the playoffs and aren’t realistic threats for the league MVP.
That has us looking at Zeke, Brady and Carr.
Elliott has been awesome, and not just for a rookie. He’s been a madman by all accounts, as he leads the entire NFL in rushing yards (891) and has scored seven touchdowns en route to an amazing start for a Dallas team that looked to initially be in trouble after losing star quarterback Tony Romo (back) before the season began.
Carr can’t be quickly dismissed, either, as he has Oakland back in the playoff discussion for the first time since they lost the Super Bowl in 2002.
That’s a potential playoff return for the first time in 14 years, while Carr also ranks 5th in passing yardage and has put up a remarkable 17:3 touchdown to interception ratio during the magical run.
Of course, as impressive as both Elliott and Carr have been, it only takes one look at Brady’s mere four-game stretch to notice why he jumps out the most.
Not only does he have zero turnovers or zero losses, but he has nearly as many passing scores as Carr and has his team is just as good of positioning. The pace he’s on is scary, too, because if he keeps going at his current rate, he’ll easily put up the type of numbers (4,000 yards and 36 TDs) one would get in a full 16-game season.
Elliott is defying the loss of Romo, a rookie quarterback in Prescott and an inexperience rookie year. Carr is defying long odds and over a decade of losing. Brady, on the other hand, is defying a four-game ban, the entire league, father time and all of his doubters.
A lot of people would love to see Brady crumble under the pressure and the Patriots to go away, but it hasn’t happened yet and judging by how he’s played, it won’t be happening anytime soon.
It’s still early and a lot can happen, but the first half of this season has shown us a lot. It’s shown us that Ezekiel Elliott and Derek Carr are both legit and that the Oakland Raiders and Dallas Cowboys are viable Super Bowl contenders – potentially.
Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford & Derek Carr are nice stories. But Tom Brady will unanimously win NFL MVP playing just 12 games.
— Jason Smith (@howaboutafresca) November 4, 2016
It’s been impressive, but Tom Brady showed us that in half the amount of time it took them to. And the scary part? It really does feel like he’s just getting started.
Pick: Tom Brady wins the 2016 NFL MVP award
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