2016 PGA Championship Odds and Prediction
The big names come out on Thursday, as the 2016 PGA Tour rocks on at Baltusrol Golf Club in New Jersey for the 2016 PGA Championship.
The Big 3 (Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy) aren’t the top favorite here, as Dustin Johnson marches into the PGA’s next big major tournament as hot as anyone has been in some time.
Johnson will come in guns’a blazin’, having won the U.S. Open and placed inside the top-5 in each of his last four runs. If you’re not taking DJ to win his second major of the year, you at least need to lay some cash on him placing high.
Dustin Johnson hasn’t placed outside of the top 10 since May.
• 3 pic.twitter.com/6zWKUHc2Hu
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 26, 2016
Of course, as hot as Johnson is, he’s not alone in a severely stacked golfer pool with an insane 97 of the world’s top-100 golfing talents. It’s going to be a bombs away event, too, with the Baltusrol Golf Club length putting driving on full display.
That may favor the mashing Johnson, but he will certainly have his work cut out for him. Let’s take a look at the top favorites, some interesting sleepers and who should ultimately exit New Jersey with the 2016 PGA Championship title:
Top PGA Championship Favorites
- Dustin Johnson +800
- Rory McIlroy +850
- Jason Day
- Jordan Spieth +1600
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out who the favorites are for the PGA Championship, as this four-pack of golf’s top talents should come to work this weekend.
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 27, 2016
Johnson enters as the favorite, as his long ball game fits the course and he’s been about as on fire as it gets. Again, even if he doesn’t take first, he’s very likely to be in the mix down the stretch.
We can’t write off his top competition, which is the nasty trio of Day, McIlroy and Spieth. Spieth has the most playable odds going into Thursday, but his skill-set isn’t likely to dominate at a course like this. He’s still in play just because he’s amazing, though, and those odds aren’t bad for a guy who easily could be favored.
McIlroy is the guy to really watch out for here, as he’s been lurking for much of the year, seemingly just biding his time. He’s taken first at this event twice before, two, so even through he hasn’t won it at this exact course, this is a spot he clearly loves to shine. He has not been elite overall in 2016, but this could be a good place for him to rise up.
Day was a weekly favorite for a good stretch this year, as he’s really been on a tear since last summer and does have two wins in 2016. He’s been just fine since winning The Players Championship, too, sticking inside the top-27 in each of his last three runs. The course changes, but he should be up to the task of defending the title he won at this event last year.
- Phil Mickelson +2000
- Adam Scott +2800
- Bubba Watson +3500
- Brooks Koepka +5500
- Jason Dufner +8000
Some would say Mickelson is a favorite going into Thursday, but his odds suggest he’s closer to a high level sleeper. It’s tough not to suggest so, too, especially considering the guy hasn’t won a tournament all year. Maybe this is where his luck changes, though, seeing as he won the PGA Championship at this very course back in 2005.
We needn’t rule out the likes of Scott or Watson, either, as both have solid odds, yet betting on them offers you some payout upside, as well. Watson is forever the lightning in a bottle, unorthodox sleeper, and he often doesn’t logically seem like the play. That being said, the odds are fun and after four straight finishes outside of 37th place, he may simply be due.
If you don’t want to throw caution to the wind so much, stick with Adam Scott, who owns two solid wins in 2016 and has remained on the radar lately with four top-20 finishes in his last six tries. His elite play has tailed off, but he hasn’t missed a cut all season. Scott is definitely in the mix to make a run late this weekend, but even if he’s not your pick to win, he needs to be bet on to last until the end.
Koepka and Dufner feel like fun fliers, seeing as Dufner won this thing in 2013 and Koepka has been red hot with finishes at 2nd, 2nd and 13th in his last three runs. He hasn’t won yet in 2016, but he’s getting alarmingly close. Dufner, meanwhile, does have a win and heated up a bit in his last appearance with an 8th place finish at the U.S. Open.
PGA Championship Prediction
This is a very deep and star-studded tournament, as the 2016 PGA Championship wraps up the major tournaments for the season. Every top golfer in this thing is going to be out for blood, and for very different reasons.
The top guys we like the most have already been touched on, while we emphasize that the guy you end up picking should be able to drive the heck out of the ball and also survive some hiccups.
This may be a spot where Bubba Watson’s unorthodox game comes to life, and this just feels like a spot where a quality golfer pretty much comes out of nowhere. His odds don’t support that, as he’s still a borderline favorite at +3500, but those are very playable and offer some payout upside, as well.
What I love about Watson is he can crush the ball and when he gets in a groove, there’s usually no stopping him. He’s regressed when compared to his career best 2015 run, but he still has a win this year and three top-10 finishes. Better yet, the dude hasn’t missed a cut all year and has had serious success at this event before (second in 2010).
This is a loaded field that can truly go any way. However, if you want a mixture of course-fitting talent, betting upside and logic, Bubba Watson just might be the play.
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