2016 PGA Tour: Open Championship Odds and Prediction
The Open Championship returns to the Royal Troon for the first time since 2004, as some of golf’s top talents go at it for the top prize.
The British Open is one of the top golf tourneys of the year, marking the third of four huge majors on the PGA Tour. Everyone will be out for blood in this one, as a strong field combats the top four golfers per Bovada – Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
Of that group, only McIlroy (2014) has a title at the British Open, possibly breathing new life into one of the most storied pro golf events.
Let’s take a closer look at where our golf bets should be going for Thursday’s initial tee off:
Top British Open Favorites
- Dustin Johnson +800
- Jason Day +850
- Rory McIlroy +1000
- Jordan Spieth +1100
- Adam Scott +2000
- Sergio Garcia +2000
- Justin Rose +3000
- Rickie Fowler +3300
- Phil Mickelson +4000
- Martin Kaymer +4000
Dustin Johnson leads the way in a seriously jammed up talent pool for the 145th Open Championship. Johnson sports the best odds per Bovada after winning the 2016 U.S. Open and also finishing inside the top-5 in each of his last three tournaments.
Johnson is clearly ablaze right now and has found his touch. Even if you don’t think he’ll make it back to back wins, you need to bet on him to crack the top-5 or top-10.
Johnson does face a big wall of elite golfers, of course, with Day, McIlroy and Spieth rounding out that formidable top-four.
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) July 12, 2016
McIlroy actually won here recently and could be a viable threat to do so again. Just keep in mind he hasn’t won yet in 2016 and overall has not been at his best. He’s cracked the top-15 in three of his last four tournaments, though, so he could be working his way up the ladder to his first win of the year.
Day and Spieth are right there with McIlroy, but both would be eyeing their first ever British Open win. That’d be a nice feather in the cap for both guys, who have equally enjoyed successful 2016 runs. Spieth owns two wins and three top-5 runs on the year, and he also arguably should have won the Masters. He’s a legit threat, per usual, while Jason Day enters as the world #1 golfer. Day also has two wins and has remained at an elite level with an 8th place finish at the U.S. Open.
There is a ton of competition after that heavy-hitting four-pack, and Scott and Garcia carry the next best odds. Scott was the hottest golfer for a second there this year, but he’s since cooled off with no better than a 12th place run in each of his last six tourneys. He’s still been cracking the top-20 with regularity, though, so he remains a threat.
Garcia is trending the other way, as he hasn’t been in a ton of tourneys in 2016 but has found success lately with a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson and also finished 5th at the U.S. Open. The 36-year old is far from a lock to register another win at such a competitive major, but he’s certainly in the mix.
Rose, Fowler and Kaymer look like viable threats, but of the remaining favorites its the ageless Phil Mickelson we need to consider the most.
Mickelson won the Open Championship back in 2013 and is still hunting for his first win of the year. He’s registered two top-5 runs in his last five tries, though, so he could be trending in the right direction. Mickelson also fared well the last time the British Open dropped down at the Royal Troon (tied for third), too.
- Hideki Matsuyama +6600
- Andy Sullivan +8000
- Brandt Snedeker +9000
- Danny Lee +12500
- Ernie Els +14000
- J.B. Holmes +25000
- Kevin Na +25000
- Smylie Kaufman +40000
- Todd Hamilton +200000
Let’s get two things straight: the favorites boast the best British Open odds for a reason and this field is insanely crammed with talent. The guys we just got done dissecting probably offer up the most likely shot at nailing a winner, while picking the right sleeper could be tough in such a big, talented tournament.
That being said, we’ve got nine guys here worth considering for a variety of reasons – the least of which isn’t their interesting odds.
The guy with the funnest odds is actually a former winner – Todd Hamilton. He’s only participated in one tourney this year, but as a former British Open winner he gets to take part in this huge major. He’s not actually a threat, but he did win here in 2004 and with insane +200000 odds, a fun $100 bet could be in order (a Hamilton win would return a ridiculous $200,000 at Bovada.
While Hamilton isn’t the most logical sleeper, there are still a ton of guys to consider. Matsuyama is one guy that makes a ton of sense. Matsyama bombed at the U.S. Open, but had otherwise been inching toward his second win of the year, finishing 11th or better in four of his previous five runs.
Andy Sullivan is a popular sleeper going into this week’s major, as he won three times on the European Tour last year and has wormed his way inside the top-30 in four of his last six runs this year.
Ernie Els is a moderate sleeper, just because he’s crushed it at the British Open in the past. Els even finished 5th in his last tourney (Quicken Loans National) and has won this event twice before (2002 and 2008). He probably isn’t winning, but there are worse dark horses to give a try.
If you’re looking for talented sleepers, look no further than Smylie Kaufman and Danny Lee. Kaufman has much more playable odds of the two (by a mile), but both could be interesting bets. Kaufman comes in hot after finishing 10th at the Quicken Loans National and has a win and four top-10 runs under his belt in 2016.
Experts are much higher on Lee, though, as he has better odds and went on a solid run in May. He’s at least making cuts at a strong rate, too, successfully advancing in his last seven tries. He’s bumping up the experience bar with a whopping 20 tournaments under his belt in 2016 and he’s got two top-10 runs to show for it.
2016 Open Championship Prediction
Trends may be the deciding factor when trying to predict the 2016 Open Championship winner, as American-born players have won nine Open tourneys since 2000 and the Royal Troon specifically has a 54-major winning streak going to American players.
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) July 12, 2016
That’s a tough pill to swallow for non-American threats, but it’s going to be very difficult to look away from the main favorites and some of the interesting non-American sleepers.
Ultimately, we’re probably looking at either Jason Day or Dustin Johnson.
Johnson is the hotter of the two, but no other golfer has been more impressive over the course of the last two years. Day should hit the ground running and be in top form for the British Open, and he’s our pick to win.
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