Last night was a fun ride in daily fantasy basketball, so long as you paid up for the right studs. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry were a tad underwhelming, but if you confided in Russell Westbrook and/or DeMarcus Cousins, you were rather pleased.
If you got both, you may have taken down a big NBA DFS GPP. To do so, you probably needed some quality daily fantasy basketball value picks. We plugged some that paid off, with Derrick Rose, Jeremy Lamb and Jae Crowder all working out nicely.
The aim remains the same for Tuesday night, which gives us one less game (6) than Monday. Let’s scour each position to see which value plays are worth our time if we want to pay up for studs like Anthony Davis and/or James Harden:
Note: We’ll be shifting over to FanDuel’s pricing today, as they seem to have better overall value on this slate. Most of the picks still apply to both FanDuel and DraftKings, however.
Two things to get us rolling here: this is a weird slate and our daily fantasy basketball value picks are for GPP tourneys specifically.
Seriously, Chris Paul is the most expensive point guard on this slate and he hasn’t been truly elite for a while now. His Clippers are also at risk of playing limited minutes if they blowout the Nets (like they should) tonight.
After that, you’re looking at Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday and George Hill. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
They’re all fine enough, but diving down at one PG spot makes sense at FD tonight, and that’s where guys like Frazier, Delly and Augustin could come in.
Frazier’s run has been rock solid. He just hasn’t been doing anything with it. Maybe it’s Jrue breathing down his neck – who knows. But if he’s starting and getting 30+ minutes and facing the Lakers, we need to consider him.
Delly is a little less reliable, but he’s also a good $1k cheaper, at home and sporting some possible revenge against his old squad. I’m not sold on him going off here, but he could and even if he doesn’t, 20-25 fantasy points sounds about right.
For the risk of Frazier and Delly, I’m not sure we’re not better off just plummeting for Augustin. He’s slated to start again tonight against the Spurs in San Antonio:
That could easily be bad, since the Spurs are favored by a -13 spread and Orlando (1-5) is brutal on the road. He’s still starting, can shoot and is getting around 25 minutes. If he can start the game hot and the Magic don’t get trounced, he just might be the play of the night.
It’s James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the shooting guard pecking order, and then it falls off a cliff.
Stacking those two wouldn’t be a terrible idea if you can find a way to afford it, while there actually is an argument for fading both.
Regardless, if you need to take a dive at shooting guard, there luckily are options. The beautiful part is we’re not even touching on Eric Gordon, Lou Williams or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope here.
Instead, let’s focus on Clarkson, who has been the better play up against Lou lately and got over 30 minutes of run in his last game. Facing a bad Pelicans defense, he should be able to get his and looks like a must-play with whatever stud SG you’re using.
You could make a case for Redick, too. He is insanely scoring dependent, but he’s now averaging 15 real points per game on the year and has safely reached 16+ actual points in 8 of his last 12. He’s a tricky play because he can turn up completely lame or get hot and still offer nothing outside of his shooting. At $4.3k, though, the risk could be worth it.
Ditto for Lamb, who has been awesome lately (30+ fantasy points in B2B games) and is even cheaper. I do question how long he can play this well, and what his exact role/run will be. I’d prefer to use him in a starting role, but he’s a solid bench scorer in a GPP setting, regardless.
There is also Smith, who cannot hit the broadside of a barn right now (1 for his last 22!), but with Iman Shumpert banged up, he’s slated for ridiculous run. Perhaps he finally sinks some deep balls tonight. At this low price, he’s a fun gamble.
Small forward is stacked tonight, as pairing Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James could be the best play, while Gordon Hayward also deserves some consideration.
Punting SF probably isn’t wise, but if you do, Hill and Ingram could be the targets. Both are getting great run due to injuries on their respective squads, and they’ll be facing each other in one of the best matchups on the night. I don’t love either of them, but if they’re out there on the floor, they can get hot or fall into stats.
Ariza isn’t a punt, but he could easily end up matching Hayward or even Kawhi if he’s on tonight. He can hit the outside shot, rebound, pass and when he’s feeling it he can be a steals monster. I’m not sure that happens on the road against the Jazz, but it could.
Ideally, we’re fading these three guys. Of this trio, Ariza is the guy to use.
Anthony Davis is a machine and Blake Griffin could make for a fine pivot off of him. Beyond that, power forward is wide open, as Kevin Love feels a bit pricey and LaMarcus Aldridge is tough to trust as a Spur.
That drops us down to Booker and some cheaper options. Trusting Booker probably isn’t realistic, but he’s at home and the Nets don’t have a ton of options. You’re hoping for a hot start here, and/or Brooklyn not getting housed.
I’m not sure you can safely bank on either, which makes Frank the Tank the best play here. He’s not going to blow up, but he’s topped 10+ actual points safely in six straight games and will be at home. If he can hit on 30 fantasy points, we’ve struck gold.
The other guy is Nance, who double-doubled in over 30 minutes in his last game. We probably need Julius Randle (questionable) to sit to really trust him, and he’s not the best scoring forward out there. He hustles and if the run is there he might have enough to crush his value, however.
Nance is definitely in play if Julius sits, but Kaminsky is the surer thing.
Center is a big bowl of blah tonight, as you can’t trust guys like Brook Lopez, Nikola Vucevic or Pau Gasol and even the perceived stud (Andre Drummond) hasn’t been amazing this year.
DeAndre Jordan ($6.7k) might be as high as I want to go price-wise at this position tonight, and as the day goes on, I’m warming up more and more to Capela.
I don’t love a date with Rudy Gobert in Utah, but Capela easily topped 30 fantasy points in this same matchup in Houston a week ago. He cab rack up easy buckets, rebounds and blocks, and he’s getting great run. There really isn’t a massive argument against using him.
Then again, you could get the same production and save $1k if you use Tristan Thompson. He’s not as offensively gifted as Capela, though, so he needs to get a ton of rebounds or grind his way to a double-double somehow. I don’t trust him, but the price is solid.
I’m not sure why we need to gamble with Thompson when a similar player like Biyombo is waiting to be used. His date against Pau Gasol isn’t that scary, but if Orlando gets housed (and they probably will), his value could lose its luster quickly. That being said, he can explode with rebounds and blocks and if this stays a game, he’s going to crush his price tag.
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