Kirk Cousins and the Top Daily Fantasy Football Value Picks For Week 11
Week 10 in daily fantasy football was all about the elite running back, as David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell all were more than worth their price tags at DraftKings.
Fading the stud runners was a mistake, especially with the top wide receivers being relatively hit or miss.
Whatever you did in week 10, we hope you made out okay. Moving onto week 11, there is still another chance to take advantage of some sweet values at DK.
Let’s see which value picks make the most sense this week as we take a look at each position:
- Russell Wilson – Seahawks ($6.1k)
- Dak Prescott – Cowboys ($6k)
- Kirk Cousins – Redskins ($5.8k)
- Blake Bortles – Jaguars ($5.4k)
Russell Wilson is back, folks:
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2016
He torched the Bills and Patriots over the last two weeks and his recent tear is starting to feel like what he did last season. If that’s even remotely the case, you need to jump on him at this price point.
Wilson does face a Philly defense that contained the Falcons in week 10, but this game is in Seattle. I expect fireworks out of Wilson and at this price, even a modest game could have him paying off.
I don’t love Prescott’s matchup with a solid Ravens defense this week, but the rook has churned out 20+ fantasy points in four straight games. He seems borderline matchup proof and Dallas is at home, so at this price it’s tough to knock him.
That might be even more the case for Captain Kirk this week, as he’s at home against a Packers defense that simply is not showing up to play right now. Cousins is on a nice roll with 18+ fantasy points in seven of his nine games in 2016.
Not only did Marcus Mariota obliterate this defense last week, but Cousins has defied far tougher matchups and tends to play some of his best football in D.C.
Last, but possibly not least, is an uber cheap Bortles. Bortles is not a good NFL quarterback, but he can put up numbers, as evidenced by three straight 19+ fantasy point outings. This week he gets a truly terrible Lions defense that ranks just 31st against quarterbacks. Whether he torches them early or shreds them late while playing from behind, Bortles feels like a lock to produce in week 11.
- Doug Martin – Buccaneers ($5.4k)
- Theo Riddick – Lions ($5.1k)
- Frank Gore – Colts ($5k)
- Todd Gurley – Rams ($5k)
- Jeremy Hill – Bengals ($4.4k)
- Ryan Mathews – Eagles ($4.2k)
- James Starks – Packers ($4.2k)
Unlike what we saw a week ago, there is a ton of value to get excited about at the running back position in week 11. It all starts with Doug Martin, who finally returned from injury last week and put up a solid 11 fantasy points.
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@TBBuccaneers) November 13, 2016
The Muscle Hamster looks like an even better play this week, as his role should only grow as he gets healthier. A date with the Chiefs in Kansas City isn’t ideal, but you’re paying for 50+ yards and a score. I think he can safely get that, if not a lot more.
Riddick and Gore can be tossed together, as they’re about the same price and feel like two of the safest fantasy running backs in the business. Gore lacks explosiveness, but he has been insanely reliable with 10+ fantasy points in eight of nine contests this year. He even fared well against the Titans team he faces this week, as he dropped 19 fantasy points on them just three games ago.
Riddick tends to shrink against tough matchups, but he can be really explosive at DK due to their love for reception points. He’s produced three 20+ fantasy point outings on the year and is back to full strength after dealing with some injuries. In week 11 he gets the Jaguars, who rank just 24th against running backs over their last four outings.
Todd Gurley has been a strong value pick for weeks now, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t really capitalized on it. It’s tough when his quarterback play and blocking are so shoddy, but he also hasn’t had a ton of amazing matchups. This week he faces a middling Miami defense at home in a spot where he could finally erupt.
Gurley has at least been pretty stable, too, with 10+ fantasy points in six of nine contests. At this price, you can pay for that safety and hope for his best game of the year.
Hill, Mathews and Starks all can be hit or miss, but they’re all quite cheap and offer some upside. Hill has a strong role again and has poured in 10+ fantasy points in three straight weeks, Starks is Green Bay’s only healthy running back and Mathews randomly got Philly’s starting gig back last week and dominated (32 fantasy points). We can’t bank on that happening again on the road against the Seahawks, but the role and price demand we at least consider him this week.
- Randall Cobb – Packers ($5.9k)
- Doug Baldwin – Seahawks ($5.7k)
- Marvin Jones – Lions ($5k)
- Cameron Meredith – Bears ($4.1k)
Running back is the spot to pay down at in week 11, as wide receiver doesn’t offer a ton of attractive value picks.
Randall Cobb could blow up with a favorable matchup against the Redskins, but we need to keep in mind how much the Pack spreads the ball around. He could blow up, but he also is sharing the wealth.
Doug Baldwin might not torch the Eagles, but we probably didn’t think he’d crush the Patriots last week, either. He tends to have his best outings at home and that’s where he’ll be in week 11, at a discounted price.
Marvin Jones is just a solid talent that feels too cheap this week. This is a guy who once dropped 200 yards in a game this year, so if he’s going to get back on track, this could be a great time to buy low in NFL DFS contests.
Meredith might be the top wide receiver value pick of week 11, as Alshon Jeffery is out with a four-game ban and he’s now elevated to Chicago’s #1 wide receiver spot. He and Jay Cutler haven’t displayed amazing chemistry to this point, but perhaps they will now.
This hail mary score isn’t a bad start:
— The Big Lead (@thebiglead) November 13, 2016
- Jordan Reed – Redskins ($5.9k)
- Zach Miller – Bears ($3.8k)
- Martellus Bennett – Patriots ($3.7k)
- Julius Thomas – Jaguars ($3.5k)
Rob Gronkowski has a chest injury and sounds doubtful to suit up this week. Naturally, that really opens up the tight end position.
We’ll mention Reed just because he’s a good price for what now looks like the most expensive tight end on this week’s slate. He’s also facing the Packers at home – a defense that got absolutely destroyed by Delanie Walker in week 10.
With The Gronk likely out, we also need to look at Bennett, who has a three-score game to his name this year and might do this to a bad 49ers defense:
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2016
Zach Miller and Julius Thomas are also worth a look, as Jeffery’s suspension likely opens up more work for Miller and Thomas gets a tasty matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks dead last against tight ends in 2016.
Both of these guys are certainly worth a look, but our two favorite tight ends on the week by far and Reed and Bennett. Bennett saves more money, but it’s actually Reed who looks to represent more value.
- Arizona Cardinals ($3.1k)
- Miami Dolphins ($2.9k)
- Baltimore Ravens ($2.5k)
DraftKings usually prices the best defenses up quite a bit, but there is actually some solid value at team defense in week 10. Arizona disappointed against the Niners last week, but they still have immense upside and in week 11 draw a weak Minnesota offense that is really struggling.
If you want to save cash, consider the Dolphins or Ravens. Miami feels like the safer pick, as they actually were awesome last week (17 fantasy points) and get a beautiful matchup with Case Keenum and the Rams.
Baltimore shouldn’t be ignored just because they’re visiting the Dallas Cowboys, as they’re dirt cheap and have been really strong for most of 2016. They probably won’t dominate this game, but they could limit the points and rack up some sacks and turnovers in what could be a tight game.
That does it for our look at the top value picks in daily fantasy football this week. Hopefully a few of these picks help you win big money in week 11. Regardless, we wish you luck in your NFL DFS leagues!
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