Top Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Buys at DraftKings For 3/4
Friday night is an amazing night for daily fantasy basketball at DraftKings for two huge reasons: we get a sweet 10-game slate and DK finally got the prices right.
I half expect Oprah to pop out and tell us to look under our seats. Seriously, it’s not a stud-laden night at all (no one priced over $10k), but even beyond that it’s almost like DK’s employees all got together and finally agreed, “let’s actually assign prices that match up with player value”.
It’s a crazy idea, but it happened and it could set us up for a beautiful night of DFS action. That, or we get swirled up in all of this value and we piece together the sparest rosters we’ve ever seen. That’s possible, but things open up due to some injuries right off the bat, while Kevin Love has already been ruled out (rest).
There is a ton of value in the $6-8k range, but in case you did want to stack the few elite options on tonight’s slate, we’re doing to dig deep and see where the real value lies. Let’s get to it:
PG: Jeff Teague – Hawks ($5.9k), Emmanuel Mudiay – Nuggets ($5.4k) and Elfrid Payton – Magic ($5.2k)
We could dumpster dive for guys like D.J. Augustin or Isaiah Canaan here, but I don’t feel like tonight’s slate demands risks like that. Instead, why not opt for Teague, who is a good price and could even be quite contrarian with people being off of him after getting benched against the Warriors. He’s facing the Lakers, too, so yeah.
Holy cow, Batman. Mudiay can score a bit, huh? One of the more atrocious shooters in the league, Mudiay erupted in his last game, hitting 10 shots en route to 22 actual points (39.5 fantasy points). While that’s a bit of a fluke, he’s still at home tonight and he gets the Nets. The Nets! No Danilo Gallinari means those shots remain, too, so I love the value/upside here tonight.
I’m digging Frid these days, as all that talk of Brandon Jennings rendering him useless is starting to fade. Payton has been pretty strong lately with 34+ fantasy points in two of his last three contests and at least 22+ fantasy points in five straight games. He’s fairly reliable at this cheap price, plus he’s at home against a bad Suns team that he scorched for 40 fantasy points earlier this year. I like THAT.
Crazy GPP dive: Brandon Jennings – Magic ($3.6k)
Jennings is not getting great run these days but the Magic are at home and the Suns are awful. They’re also on the second game of a back to back, furthering the chance of an upset. It’s a big risk operating only on game flow like that, but for a GPP I’ve seen worse logic.
SG: Andrew Wiggins – Wolves ($6k), Monta Ellis – Pacers ($5.8k), Brad Beal – Wizards ($5.8k), Evan Fournier – Magic ($5.8k), Zach Lavine – Wolves ($5.6k), Gary Harris – Nuggets ($4.6k), Devin Booker – Suns ($4.5k) and Kyle Korver – Hawks ($4.4k)
Wiggins has been pretty weak lately (just 20 and 22 fantasy points in last two games), but he’s usually good for around 20 actual points and 30 or so fantasy points. At just $6k he’s kind of at that “he’s seriously this cheap?” range. He can blow up at any time, we know that, and he also gets a weak Bucks defense. He did well against them (34 fantasy points) last time out, so I don’t fear the value here.
As you can see, there is quite a bit of value to be had at shooting guard tonight. Which is great, because there really isn’t a sure-fire elite option on the docket. That being said, I am well aware that pretty much all of these guys are risky plays.
They all warrant consideration, though, as Ellis can get hot at any time, Beal has fared well in two games against Cleveland (33 fantasy points per outing), Fournier was on a torrid run before hurting his wrist (he’s due back tonight), Lavine is getting monster minutes, ditto for Gary, Booker just dropped 34 points on the Heat and Korver gets the Lakers.
That’s a run-on sentence to be sure, but it’s also loaded with a bunch of “he might be good” nudges. Just note the value associated with SG tonight and keep all of these guys in mind, as they are somewhat safe and can help open up your roster quite a bit.
Crazy GPP dive: Nick Young – Lakers ($3.1k)
Swaggy P is almost the mininum and he’s at home against the Hawks, who will probably crush the Lakers. Kobe Bryant is also iffy (shoulder) and Lou Williams (out) and Jordan Clarkson (knee) also could open up minutes.
SF: Joe Johnson – Heat ($5.7k), Mirza Teletovic – Suns ($5.6), Matt Barnes – Grizzlies ($5.4k) and Robert Covington – 76ers ($5.4k)
Iso wrecked two games ago and then showed us all last night (15.75 fantasy points) why he can’t be trusted. Personally, I’m looking at Gordon Hayward, Giannis, PG-13 or Melo at small forward tonight. Heck, maybe all this value shopping will convince me to spend on tonight’s most expensive guy (Bron Bron). So for those reasons, I don’t love Johnson. He is facing Philly, though, and he could take on a bigger role if Dwyane Wade (fingers crossed) sits this one out.
Fearza is the man, as he’s rocked it off the bench for the Suns, topping at least 10 actual points in 10 straight games. I would much prefer to see him get way more run and add a ton of other stats to the mix, but his scoring is quite reliable. I don’t love the price, but he can blow up and can even add good rebounding numbers if the minutes show up tonight.
Matt Barnes is a throw-in for two seasons: he’s getting good run with Marc Gasol done for the year and he’s pretty cheap. A matchup with Utah isn’t exactly ideal, but he’s a good value play if he can get his jumper going (he was brutal last time out).
I’d rather just go with Covey, though. Covington has been supremely hit or miss pretty much all year, but he wrecked in his last game (38 fantasy points) and also posted a strong 35 fantasy points versus Miami earlier this year. His run and price is what draw me in, though, as he’s a guy who can do a lot of different things (namely steals) and if his outside shot is falling, he can kill for you.
Crazy GPP dive: Jakarr Sampson – Nuggets ($3.1k)
This isn’t safe in the least. Like, Swags and BJ are way, way safer. But this isn’t totally crazy either, since Sampson has seen starts and 23+ minutes in his last two games. Thanks to Gallo being sidelined, he could be in play.
PF: Kenneth Faried – Nuggets ($6k), Julius Randle – Lakers ($5.9k), Marvin Williams – Hornets ($5.8k), Markieff Morris – Wizards ($5.4k), Myles Turner – Pacers ($5.4k) and Tristan Thompson – Cavs ($5.1k)
It’s all about role with Faried, although I’m slightly concerned that he’s not fully himself (he didn’t look right in his return from a back issue). Hopefully he’s looking and feeling better, though, as he’s a good price and faces the Nets. The Nets! He happened to wreck them pretty good (44.8 fantasy points) the only other time he faced them this year.
I also like Randle and Marv a bit and they’re right around the same price. Randle starts and gets around 30 minutes, plus he’s facing a bad rebounding Hawks team at home tonight. He should chase a double-double and return solid value. Williams is a little shakier but tonight he’s got a big game against the Pacers and he’s posted a solid 32 fantasy points per game in two previous meetings with them. Hopefully he can hit a trey bomb or two to enhance his value, but I like him just fine either way.
Kieff remains a terrific value play, as he went nuts two games ago and should continue to start. His matchup with the Cavs will be interesting with no Kevin Love, so perhaps he can snag some extra rebounds. Washington has been playing pretty well and actually housed the Cavs last time they played at Quicken Loans Arena, but this pick is obviously all about the price. Turner is the same price and feels a little safer, so you could pivot to him or even pair them together.
TT should start with Love out and that should put him in line for 30+ minutes and a chance at a double-double. He is not a reliable source of offense, but we know he can help on the glass and with defensive stats. Let’s hope he’s cooking with gas tonight.
Crazy GPP dive: Mike Scott – Hawks ($3.3k)
Scott already has a decent benching scoring role good for about 15 minutes, but in a potential blowout against L.A. he could see way more run.
C: Alex Len – Suns ($5.7k), Nikola Jokic – Nuggets ($5.7k) and Robin Lopez – Knicks ($5.6k)
Lensanity continues, as the Suns star forward/center scored in double digits for the sixth straight game last night. He’s been very good as a DFS player in general, too, with three straight 30+ fantasy point efforts. Tonight he faces Orlando, who aren’t always very good at defense and he happened to drop a cool 45 fantasy points on them last time the Magic and Suns faced off. I don’t need 45 fantasy points from him at this price, but given how hot he’s been, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility, either.
Jokic is super hit or miss, but he remains a very viable GPP play. I’d say he’s fine for cash but Michael Malone has been the bane of my existence this year due to his shaky rotations. If Jokic gets the run he deserves, though, he can smash this $5.7k price tag to bits. Also, he gets the Nets at home. The Nets!
That’s the last time I scream out the Nets, I promise. We have one more here in Lopez, who is another hit or miss option but can hit very big at times. He has double-double potential if he can just get his run (29+ fantasy points in four of last six games). He’s gotten enough minutes in three meetings with the Celtics, and has also poured in about 28 fantasy points per contest. I’d take even that, but if he can get me 33-35 fantasy points, I would be indebted to him.
Crazy GPP dive: Joffrey Lauvergne – Nuggets ($3.2k)
Michael freaking Malone, I tell ya. We never know for sure what the Nugs are going to do at center, plus it’s entirely possible Jokic gets in foul trouble early against Brook Lopez. One way or another, Joffrey could end up playing 20+ minutes and wrecking.
That does it for Friday night’s top DFS value plays under $6k at DK. We post this well before the games, so be sure to stay on top of the latest news and injury buzz. With that, we hope a few of these guys can help you win big tonight. Good luck!
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