We had enjoyed a good 2-3 weeks with our daily fantasy football optimal lineup. Then week 11 happened.
Charcandrick West got hurt, the Eagles defense imploded, Tom Brady got shut down and Adrian Peterson couldn’t destroy the Packers. Rob Gronkowski was a total spare, too, which was probably the worst of it, as we’ve paid up for him twice in the past three weeks and haven’t found any success.
In week 12 we’ll leave Rob Gronkowski for the masses to decide on. We’ll look elsewhere at tight end, stack up on elite wide receivers and fade expensive quarterbacks to the sun. It’s all about upside mixed in with value we can’t possibly pass on in our week 12 daily fantasy football optimal lineup:
QB: Russell Wilson – Seahawks ($6k)
Everyone is going to be all over cheap guys like Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown this week, so the idea here is to pick a bit of a contrarian play that could go off, but few people will be into. Ownership projections likely have Wilson being owned a little over 1% this week, even after a nice 3-touchdown outing in week 11. Wilson finally woke up from his season long slumber last week and was pretty on fire, and now this week he gets a Steelers defense that has been middle of the pack or worse against the pass. Wilson is at home, too, where he’s specifically been at his best in 2015. I don’t know if he blows the hinges off, but Pittsburgh has given up the fifth most passing yardage on the year, so it’s a solid shot.
RB: Chris Ivory – Jets ($5.8k)
I just love Ivory this week, as he mashed the Dolphins to bits last time out, and that was in South Beach. He’s been a bit of a dud lately, but he’s really at his best in New York and this is a great matchup for him. I don’t know if he drops 166 rushing yards on Miami again, but I think 80 total yards and 1-2 scores can be done and would suffice.
RB: Alfred Blue – Texans ($4.5k)
I like Blue a lot because he’s the exact same price as Thomas Rawls, a running back a lot of people will be all over. A big thing in DFS (any sport), is people tend to reflect, rather than project. Rawls is coming off a monster performance and Blue has just been OK, so he’s less likely to be owned a lot. It’s Blue that has the better matchup, though, as he gets a bad Saints defense that has allowed the 29th most production to running backs on the year. Blue got a ridiculous 24 touches last week and if he’s ready to roll (he’s probable), then I’m sticking with him.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – Texans ($9.1k)
I think it could be fun to pull a contrarian move (oddly) and actually use Julio Jones here (he’s expected to be lower owned) because he has the worse matchup by far. Even so, I can’t see how Nuk sucks against an awful Saints defense, so I have to get in on that insane ownership percentage. If he doesn’t crush, it will be quite the shocker.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. – Giants ($8.7k)
Same story here for ODB, who dropped a solid 7-79-1 line on the Redskins in their last meeting. This is a great matchup for him and he’s still at value with this price, so there’s little reason to not pay up for him. In fact, considering the price, if you’re picking just one elite receiver to use, he’s probably going to be it.
WR: Dontrelle Inman – Chargers ($3k)
Inman has a solid matchup against a beatable Jaguars pass defense, while it’s beyond obvious that San Diego can’t run the ball this year. He’s starting and has a solid role, so it’s all about making the most of his targets. He’s been a bit of a spare so far, but at the minimum price at DK, he’s worth the gamble.
TE: Jimmy Graham – Seahawks ($4.8k)
Graham is still very talented and my goodness is this guy DUE. He hasn’t had a truly elite game in four weeks and hasn’t even scored since week three. That’s the bad news. The good news is Seattle did finally get their passing game going last week, Graham plays his best in Seattle (13 fantasy points per game) and draws a Steelers defense that is quite sluggish against tight ends. Sluggish, as in 30th on the year against the position. Graham is a nice pairing with Wilson and like Wilson, should be a nice contrarian play in week 12.
Flex: LeSean McCoy – Bills ($5.3k)
It might be silly to go against my Chiefs defense below, but Shady is really all the Bills have going for them. Here’s the logic: he’s put up less than 10 fantasy points just one time all year and is riding a nice three-game streak of 20+ fantasy points. Buffalo’s offense hasn’t even been crushing it, either. He just is so involved as a runner and receiver that he feels like a can’t miss play. I doubt the Bills score more than 20 points this week, but there’s a good chance he gets one of their scores.
Def: Kansas City Chiefs ($2.8k)
I don’t think I can use another defense in week 12. KC has really turned it on and has now produced four straight 10+ fantasy point outings. They’ve smothered some solid offenses en route to a sick four-game winning streak and this week they get the Bills, who aren’t exactly an elite offense. If the Chiefs can shut down LeSean McCoy, it’s going to be a really long day for Buffalo.
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