Week 11 was a disaster in daily fantasy football. Most of the big names came up remarkably short, while three of the biggest performances of the week came from guys less than 10% of the field used.
Doug Martin and Thomas Rawls both rushed their way to 200+ total yards, while Buccaneers rookie passer Jameis Winston tossed a ridiculous five touchdowns.
Winston was so good in a week where everyone was so bad, that the likes of Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Derek Carr couldn’t even combine to reach his touchdown total.
And while Martin and Rawls each put up over 200 rushing yards a pierce, Adrian Peterson, Chris Ivory, Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman couldn’t even combine for that many yards on the ground.
Yeah, it was a frustrating week. Our top picks from last week naturally suffered a bit, as Philip Rivers could only guide his Chargers to one lousy field goal on his home field, Marshawn Lynch didn’t even play, the aforementioned Freeman got hurt and Jason Witten was ignored in Tony Romo’s return.
On the bright side, Carson Palmer went nuts against his former team, Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant were both respectable, the Seahawks and Panthers were good defensive plays and Greg Olsen once again was a terrific play.
It was a mixed bag, but in week 12 we’re going for the A+, all around. We still have a MNF game to be played this week, but with none of our picks still rolling, it’s on to next week:
I’m not saying A-Rod is all the way back after a solid week 11 performance, but something needs to be said about a 200+ yard and 2-TD game with no turnovers against a solid defense on the road. Rodgers hasn’t been perfect over the last several weeks, but he’s been just fine for fantasy purposes, producing 22+ fantasy points in each of his last three contests. At home against a Bears team he has routinely destroyed, there’s little reason to fight him in week 12.
As enticing as Rodgers is, I think Palmer is a guy I want to use a little more this week. Palmer is fresh off of a huge 4-TD outing in week 11 and has now put up at least 18 fantasy points in every single game this year. In seven of them he’s kept that number at 20+. He’s been a real problem for opposing defenses and this week he draws the 49ers, a team he torched for 311 passing yards and two scores earlier this year.
RB: Todd Gurley – Rams ($7.5k) and Adrian Peterson – Vikings ($7.3k)
Gurley’s yardage has been erratic (below 100 yards) in each of his last three contests, but he continues to salvage value by getting a touchdown (has scored in five straight games). He’s on the road against the Bengals and it’s possible his o-line issues and non-existent passing game hurt him, but he also could pay off with 60 total yards and a touchdown. He’s still a solid price and with Devonta Freeman (concussion) possibly out this week, he’s shaping up as the top option at the running back position this week.
Peterson is nothing to scoff at, as he still got you 13 fantasy points last week despite being held in check and losing a fumble. He does go up against a stingy Falcons run defense in week 12, but where they dominate in rushing yardage, they bend in touchdowns allowed. Peterson probably won’t bust out for 200+ yards in this one, but he could get close to 100 and score 1-2 times in a huge NFC clash.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – Texans ($9.1k) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($8.7k)
It pays to go elite at wide receiver some days, as Hopkins officially declared himself matchup proof by burning Darrelle Revis and the Jets this week to the tune of 5 catches, 118 yards and two scores. Not much more needs to be said about this guy. He’s obviously expensive, but he can crush any matchup and a showdown with a horrific Saints pass defense is about as tantalizing as it gets this week.
ODB is right up there in the discussion with Nuk, yet he’s considerably cheaper and carries just as much upside. Beckham Jr. has been steady as an elite option with 20+ fantasy points in each of his last three games and it’s unlikely that stops against a very beatable Redskins secondary in week 12. He and Hopkins are very much worth the price and could be fun to pair together this week.
TE: Rob Gronkowski – Patriots ($7.9k) and Tyler Eifert – Bengals ($5.8k)
Gronk needs little selling. He’s a total beast most weeks and the second a matchup is a mild advantage, you need to take advantage of it. Denver as a whole has been good against the pass in 2015, but they haven’t bee quite as dominant against the tight end position. Gronkowski may not have his biggest game of the year, but he should return value off this still solid price.
Eifert is probably the best pure value at the position in week 12, he continues to score touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. He had a mega dud in week 10 but bounced back this past week with his fourth multi-score game of the year. He won’t be a total lock to get two touchdowns again this week, but he’s a big part of what the Bengals do and can score at any time. Against a Rams defense that has slipped considerably against tight ends, he’s going to be a terrific play.
DEF: Arizona Cardinals ($3.9k) and New England Patriots ($3.5k)
I’ll be the first to tell you that these aren’t necessarily the two “best” defenses in the league right now. Arizona just gave up 31 points in a tight win last week and haven’t even topped 10 fantasy points as a unit since week five. I think they can do that against Blaine Gabbert this week, however.
The Pats also can be scored on, but they have gotten stingy against the run again and will be facing the young and inexperienced Brock Osweiler. Advantage: Bill Belichick.
Hopefully these daily fantasy football picks work out better than half the guys we suggested in week 11. No matter who you use this week, good luck in all of your leagues!
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