Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football: Picking the Optimal Lineup
Week six is going to be a very interesting week for me personally in daily fantasy football. Jamaal Charles is out for the season and obviously off the table, more guys are on bye and some of the best options many would consider (Drew Brees, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman) are no longer in the mix because they played on Thursday night.
This could mean a contrarian squad or a balanced roster with some good contrarian calls has a ton of success this week. Even so, I have a good idea as to who I like this week and who is safe/risky. Last week I probably felt somewhat confident, but the feeling is definitely different in some regard. The less variables around to disrupt how you view the field, the better your chances of success. Hypothetically, at least.
Why? Because I had been fading Freeman anyways. I didn’t want to pay up for a banged up Julio Jones. And I wasn’t going to use Drew Brees or Matt Ryan at quarterback. Perhaps fading Freeman seems foolish (I did try him a couple times last week and I did use him in the only TNF game I entered) but come on – who saw this coming!?
But I digress.
Last week we had some success in spots, but we ended up switching all of the lineups as guys like Martavis Bryant and Marshawn Lynch didn’t even play, while Malcom Floyd suiting up rendered Dontrelle Inman useless (he didn’t record a catch). We got burned by Jamaal Charles getting hurt, Jimmy Graham stinking up the joint and Mike Evans being spare yet again. Other than that, our picks all worked out.
The problem? So did everyone else’s. This is the downside of GPP leagues, my friends. If you want to win big, you gotta nail the best contrarian plays. That’s why this week we’re actually going to scale it back and focus on one daily fantasy lineup that embodies all three of our lineup philosophies. We’ll enter it in a GPP and a 50/50 and see how it holds up:
QB: Andy Dalton – Bengals ($5.7k)
Why get cute? Dalton has been an elite fantasy quarterback and is still priced like he’s a scrub. He’s cheaper than Sam Bradford, Marcus Mariota and so many others, yet he’s got a high ceiling and high floor. He’s proven that through five straight solid games. He is on the road against a supposedly strong Bills defense, but Buffalo has been getting torched through the air all year. Even in a losing effort, Dalton will come through at this insanely low price.
RB: Matt Forte – Bears ($7.1k)
I’m not messing around with value at running back if I don’t have to. Considering Le’Veon Bell is $8.5, getting someone like Forte at this price is a bargain. He’s a lock to get targets in the passing game and every game Cutler has appeared in he’s been fine to great. I have zero concern over his workload or ability to produce.
RB: Arian Foster – Texans ($7k)
Ditto for Foster, who said this week he’s “over the mental aspect” of his groin injury. It’s true that he hasn’t looked amazing, but he got a ridiculous 28 touches last week and now he’s facing a Jaguars defense that just gave up 38 points to the damn Buccaneers. More specifically, Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin scored on them three times and Jax also gives up a lot of receptions to RBs. I’m loving Foster all around in week six.
WR: Julian Edelman – Patriots ($7.6k)
If it’s not broke, don’t try to fix it. Edelamn is a PPR machine and DK is all about reception value. The Pats will want to lay it on thick against the Colts, too, so he could get a score or two, as well. He’s a little pricey, but his reliability is worth it.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals ($7k)
Much the same for Fitz, who is less targeted than Edelman but is more likely to score and is super efficient so far in 2015. He also gets a banged up Steelers secondary. It’d be a shock if Fitzgerald does a face plant this week.
WR: Dwayne Harris – Giants ($3.1k)
Here’s your top contrarian sleeper of the week. Odell Beckham Jr. and Reuben Randle are both banged up and Victor Cruz is probably still out. That makes Harris, who has 11 catches and a score over the past two weeks, a killer value play.
TE: Tyler Eifert – Bengals ($4.9k)
Let everyone else chase the upside of Rob Gronkowski this week. While I feel good about Gronk, it’s worth noting his matchup is not amazing (Indy has allowed 0 touchdowns to tight ends) and he’s on the road. Eifert is too, but he’s absurdly under-priced and faces a Bills pass defense that gives up production through the air like crazy. He’s too good of a value to ignore.
Flex: C.J. Anderson – Broncos ($4.5k)
Here’s our second contrarian play. There’s no denying Anderson has been absolute trash all year. It’s been documented. The dude was supposed to be an elite fantasy running back and he still doesn’t have a single touchdown or any game with 50+ rushing yards. Disgusting, I know. But all of that suggests people won’t be strongly considering him this week, when he goes up against the league’s very worst run defense in the Cleveland Browns. If Anderson poops the bed in week six, it’s whatever. But it’s a chance worth taking at this price.
DEF: New York Jets ($3.1k)
I like to either get a middle of the road value at defense that is safe and reliable, or aim high and use one of the cheapest defenses on the board. I’ll take the Jets here, as their price is strong and they’re at home against Kirk Cousins. Cousins tossed a bad pick-six to lose last week and he is pretty likely to have a bad game here. That, and New York has one game below 8 fantasy points on the year.
This daily fantasy football roster embodies all the three styles we’ve been working on this year: safety, upside and contrarian. It’s got some risky plays, but they’re calculated, while it also has some very safe plays and some serious upside across the board. Try it out at DraftKings along with us this week and see if we can’t win the big bucks!
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