Week 7 Daily Fantasy Football: Piecing Together the Optimal Lineup
Our week six daily fantasy football optimal lineup didn’t win the big bucks, but if you used it (or portions of it), chances are you still cashed out.
The only true misses from last week’s optimal NFL DFS lineup were Doug Baldwin (7 fantasy points) and the Buffalo defense (6 fantasy points).
We certainly expected more out of Baldwin at home against a beatable Falcons defense, but Seattle scored on the ground, rather than in the air.
You could really give the Bills as a win, too, since anything over 5 is usually a win for a defense, while Jamaal Charles (12) and DeAndre Hopkins (16) weren’t elite, but definitely held their own and helped out a pretty stacked roster.
Tyrod Taylor (20 points) wasn’t as good as Drew Brees (or Case Keenum!), but he held a strong roster together as Lamar Miller (35 pts!), Coby Fleener (25) and Odell Beckham Jr. (44!) all went nuts for us.
If you would have somehow kept the core of our NFL DFS optimal lineup and simply subbed Charles and Baldwin out for guys like Terrance West and maybe Jarvis Landry, you could have won big.
It was nice to see our optimal lineup do well last week, but with each passing week we get a stronger hold over the craziness of the NFL. Let’s see what our perfect NFL DFS roster looks like for week 7:
QB: Andy Dalton – Bengals ($6k)
We’re shaking it up a bit this week. Usually we just do the main slate, but we liked some value in the TNF game and also want to get Odell from the London game.
If you don’t want those games, perhaps find a way to figure out this roster without those games.
Starting off, we love Dalton this week. He’s at home against a bad Browns defense, might get Tyler Eifert back and has been super underrated all season. The Bengals probably need to punch in touchdowns more, but he’s been just fine as a DFS option, putting up 21+ fantasy points in four of his six contests on the year.
The best part of Dalton is his price, combined with his dual threat upside. He can kill defenses with yardage or score with his arm or legs, so he’s a fantastic value and a perfect GPP play in week seven.
RB: Matt Jones – Redskins ($4.2k)
This looks like a good week to drop down at running back. Not only did we see value running backs go nuts last week, but the pricier RBs this week have logic working against them.
Jones is a great price, gets a beatable Lions defense and has put up 20+ fantasy points in two of his last three outings. There is some risk here, but he’s a perfect NFL DFS GPP play and seems to be gaining serious steam.
RB: Jay Ajayi – Dolphins ($4.5k)
Ditto for Ajayi, who went absolutely nuts last week (200 yards and 2 scores). Some may pivot away from him, thinking either a matchup with the Bills is too ugly or that there is no way he can pay off two weeks in a row.
Both could very well be the case, but let’s remember in 2015, that few thought Devonta Freeman would continue putting up massive numbers.
Jay Ajayi has been selected as the AFC Offensive Player of the Week. pic.twitter.com/j08ufgGU71
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 19, 2016
I don’t love the matchup here for Ajayi, but he was insane in week six and at this price, you have to go back to the well and hope for the best.
WR: Julio Jones – Falcons ($9.2k)
This week feels like a great time to sell out at wide receiver, and with so much killer value elsewhere, it only makes sense to go out and get Julio Jones.
This guy is pretty much matchup proof, especially after dropping 130 yards and a touchdown in Seattle last week. In week seven he returns home to take on a Chargers defense that is without top corner, Jason Verrett. If Jones doesn’t enjoy a massive outing, it’ll be quite a shock.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. – Giants ($8.9k)
The same goes for ODB, who has finally gotten back on track the past two weeks. He is playing with a ton of fire in his belly and something tells us he’s going to want to put on a show for the folks in London.
The Rams can be a tough defense to face, but their pass defense has not been great. Last week they got burned by Marvin Jones and on the year they’re really just a middling unit.
The real key is Beckham’s solid price and recent form. He’s red hot at the moment and we’re banking on it staying that way this week.
WR: A.J. Green – Bengals ($8.6k)
I see no reason to deviate from the top wide receiver studs in week seven, as Green has been relatively quiet lately and should be a prime candidate for a massive outing.
It only helps that Green faces a bad Browns defense that continues to be in the bottom-5 against both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Joe Haden or no Joe Haden (he sat out last week), I love Green and the stacking of him and Dalton provides extra upside for this NFL DFS optimal roster.
TE: Jack Doyle – Colts ($2.5k)
I really like Gary Barnidge in this spot, as well, but why get cute when Doyle has performed well and is the minimum price?
Indy likes to utilize their tight ends and with teammate Dwyane Allen (ankle) likely out this week, Doyle is a prime candidate to have a big role in the passing game.
Dwayne Allen will miss some time with ankle injury https://t.co/Rve94wgZow
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 18, 2016
Doyle has already proven his worth this year, scoring twice in the season opener and again last week. He’s a risk, but with an insanely cheap price tag and an enhanced role, he’s a calculated one.
FLEX: Ty Montgomery – Packers ($3k)
Montgomery is the top guy we want out of this week’s Thursday Night Football game. He was ridiculously involved last week (13 touches) due to injuries in Green Bay’s offensive backfield and with Eddie Lacy now likely out this week, he could be just as involved again – if not even more.
I think Ty Montgomery is the Packers player you want this week more than Knile Davis w/ Eddie Lacy out. Just a hunch, but he could be better
— Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg) October 19, 2016
His role and price are the keys here, as Montgomery doesn’t need much to pan out, yet is coming off a week six where he registered 19 fantasy points despite losing a fumble and not even scoring. Perhaps this week his role is just as strong and he can find the end-zone.
DEF: Patriots ($2.9k)
Normally I wouldn’t condone using a defense against a great Steelers offense, but with Ben Roethlisberger (knee) on the shelf, this is a great spot to target the New England defense.
Not only are the Pats already a strong defense (5+ fantasy points in 4 of 6 contests) but they get Landry Jones, who just isn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback.
I don’t see Landry Jones having to tell his teammates “Don’t panic” as particularly encouraging news. #Steelers
— David Todd (@DavidMTodd) October 19, 2016
Jones’ presence should limit Pittsburgh’s offense in terms of points, while we can probably expect a few sacks and maybe 2-3 turnovers.
Luckily New England isn’t even expensive this week, so you get a stable defense with a plus matchup at a discount. It’s the perfect way to cap our week 7 daily fantasy football optimal lineup.
Love/hate our optimal lineup this week? Have some changes you think we should consider? Got an NFL DFS optimal lineup of your own you want to share? Have a daily fantasy question for us? Whatever it is, feel free to tell us all about it in the comments below!
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