Adjustments are key in daily fantasy football. Some may look at last second “tinkering” as a bad thing, as you can second-guess yourself or read too much into injuries, roles, matchups or other data.
You can be watching ESPN or roaming on Twitter and soak up the wrong info, and on and on. It also can help you make a decent lineup into a dream team.
That almost happened for us in week seven, as an Antonio Gates injury and less than encouraging word on Christine Michael’s role had us switch up our optimal lineup quite a bit.
It worked out in the end, as we placed in a big GPP (just $7) and also won in H2H and 50/50 games with a final score of 190.14. That was still about 100 points off of the best score we saw at DraftKings, though, so we were lucky to get what we did.
Even so, we got burned by Larry Fitzgerald (barely over 6 points) and probably should have rather gone with Lamar Miller over Doug Martin (although 25 is nothing to get upset over). Our other complaint was that T.Y. Hilton went nuts (over 30 points), yet our guy, Donte Moncrief, was fairly spare with just 11 points.
In the end, only one of our picks had under 11 fantasy points, though, so chances are if you used that lineup you made out pretty well.
Let’s see if we can do it all again in week 8:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick – Jets ($5.2k)
I like Philip Rivers and some other guys, but why get cute with it? Fitzmagic hasn’t dipped below 14 fantasy points all season and has gotten faithful DFS hamers 20+ fantasy points the past two weeks. This week he gets a Raiders pass defense that has gotten carved up routinely and ranks just 26th against quarterbacks in fantasy football. Fire up the beard.
RB: Chris Johnson – Cardinals ($4.6k)
Johnson’s role has never been safer after he dominated the Ravens to the tune of 122 rushing yards and a TD last week. I’d like him to get catches (weird that he doesn’t) but he’s a lock for 15+ touches most weeks and still has the burst to get some big plays. This week he’s especially a terrific value as he faces the Browns, who just don’t stop fantasy running backs.
RB: Jonathan Stewart – Panthers ($4.1k)
Stewart has produced two nice fantasy days in a row now and is still criminally under-priced. He seems to really be rounding into form at the right time and Carolina is at home on Monday Night Football. I doubt he gets shut down by a bad Colts run defense in front of the nation.
WR: A.J. Green – Bengals ($7.6k)
Green is a total stud when he’s on and he had the past week (bye) to rest up and focus on demolishing the Steelers. Pittsburgh usually doesn’t stop him (or anyone) so he’s worth paying up for in week 8.
WR: Eric Decker – New York Jets ($5.3k)
Decker has been dealing with a bruised knee, so here’s your early warning that we could end up shaking this week’s lineup a little if he’s out or limited. I like him for now, as I really like Fitzpatrick and obviously his WRs are likely to do well, also. Oakland hasn’t given up a ton of TDs to receivers (just 2!), but receptions and yardage is there for the taking. Decker has a bruised knee but should be fine and last week was his first game with below 10 fantasy points on the year.
WR: Brandon Marshall – New York Jets ($7.6k)
Marshall ended a ridiculous run of four straight 22+ fantasy point outings, and he would have had a 5th (and possibly a Jets win!) if he hadn’t dropped an easy go-ahead touchdown late last week. That was a bummer, but he’s been killer all year long and if I like Fitz it’d be silly not to use his #1 target.
TE: Tyler Eifert – Bengals ($5.3k)
Rob Gronkowski already played, so you’re going to have to put in some thought about tight end in week eight. I like Eifert for several reasons, but the two most obvious are that he can score 1-2 times in any game and the Steelers don’t cover tight ends well. They’re just 29th in the league in points given up to the position and Eifert is $1.2k cheaper than Greg Olsen, so it’s an easy decision. Ladarius Green is obviously in play if Antonio Gates sits (I might pivot to him if Decker is out) but the Ravens are second against TEs on the year, so that’s a tad scary.
Flex: Todd Gurley – Rams ($6.3k)
Gurley feels like a great Flex play, as he’s been a monster for three straight games and now he gets a bad Niners defense at home. I’m not sure any other running back is hotter right now, yet he remains a killer value. Everyone will own a piece of him in our GPP, but that doesn’t have to be a bad thing.
Def: Arizona Cardinals ($4k)
Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown? Who cares? Arizona’s defense has regressed a bit, but this is a matchup they shouldn’t blow. Their recent sketchiness is enough to have me seriously consider the Seahawks ($3.7k), but for now I’m liking AZ.
Be sure to check back just before Sunday’s games get going to see if we updated any changes to the week 8 DFS optimal lineup!
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