Week 9 Daily Fantasy Football Preview: Sleepers, Busts and More
Another week of Daily Fantasy Football goodness has arrived, as an ugly TNF game is in the rearview mirror and we have a full Sunday of NFL action to help erase that memory.
On top of that, we can win some fat cash if we can find a way to combine the right sleepers, chalk and contrarian plays, while also avoiding the risky picks that other DFS gamers might be high on.
For all of that, read on in this week’s Daily Fantasy Football preview:
Week 9 NFL DFS Sleepers
- Nick Foles, QB, Chiefs ($5.2k)
- Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles ($3.9k)
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($3.1k)
- Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers ($3k)
- Saints Defense ($2.3k)
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2016
Do we trust Nick Foles this week? No, but he subbed for a concussed Alex Smith last week and dropped in 16 fantasy points in limited action. Facing a suspect Jaguars defense at home, this could be one of those crazy GPP plays to consider.
Sproles isn’t so much a sneaky sleeper as he is a cheap guy with a nice role. The Eagles seem pretty done with Ryan Mathews and judging by Sproles’ 20 touches (17 fantasy points) in his last game, he’s going to be a fun value play to target in daily fantasy football leagues in week nine.
The same might go for San Diego receivers, Inman and Gates. The Chargers are insanely banged up across the board these days, which could thrust both Inman and Gates into major roles in week nine. Neither are exactly safe against, but they’re both very cheap and could have fine roles.
New Orleans is one more sleeper play to consider in NFL DFS leagues, seeing as they draw a bad Niners offense. The Saints are never a defense to feel confident about, but this is a matchup to give them a try if you’re feeling lucky.
Players to Avoid
- Derek Carr, QB, Raiders ($6.3k)
- Mark Ingram, RB, Saints ($4.8k)
- Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders ($7.7k)
- Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars ($3.2k)
- Packers Defense ($2.7k)
Carr and Cooper were a monster pairing last week, but using them in back to back weeks is not going to be suggested. Not only is it tough to put up career performances in succession, but facing an elite Broncos defense in a huge divisional clash just clouds their upside.
Both Carr and Cooper could still pan out just fine, but keep in mind that Denver ranks #1 against quarterbacks and #1 against wide receivers on the year. Odds are that impacts Carr and Cooper greatly in this one.
Rolling with Mark Ingram could be problematic this week, as well, seeing as he got benched after losing a fumble last week. He has an amazing matchup with a bad 49ers run defense, but his role is now very much in question with the Saints planning on also utilizing backup runner, Tim Hightower. Needless to say, it’s going to be very difficult to trust Ingram.
Consider Julius Thomas tough to trust, too. Not only does he have a brutal matchup with a Chiefs defense that ranks 6th against opposing tight ends, but he also hasn’t really blown up since a 17-point fantasy outing in week one. His ceiling in this matchup is likely 10-11 fantasy points and it’s quite likely he’ll end with far less than that.
Green Bay started the year off with a pretty solid defense, but they’ve fallen apart lately due to a slew of injuries. That banged up unit comes in at a value in week nine, but you can’t feel great about them against Andrew Luck and a Colts offense that certainly can score the ball.
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers ($7.8k)
- Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs ($4.4k)
- Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers ($8.9k)
- Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers ($6.2k)
- Chiefs Defense ($3.5k)
A-Rod doesn’t have a running game or a full stable of healthy wide receivers, yet he’s put up 27 and 33 fantasy points the last two weeks. This week he’s back at home against the Colts, who rank 28th against quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Yeah, Rodgers is going to be highly owned.
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLfantasy) November 5, 2016
Ditto for West, who figures to see a monster role with both Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware out this week. West came on in relief of Ware last week and piled on 8 fantasy points in less than a full half of play. Given his price, talent and role, owners will be all over him this week.
Brown is the most expensive wide receiver at DraftKings this week, but rightfully so, as he might get Big Ben back under center and also faces a Ravens secondary that ranks 28th against the wide receiver position in 2016. Brown also dropped in 22 fantasy points in his last game without Ben Roethlisberger, so he looks good to fire up, regardless.
Olsen has a bad matchup with the Rams by the numbers (11th against tight ends), but he was a dud last week and Carolina may target him heavily here to get him going. He’s also a good price on a slate where he’s hands down the best TE talent. He might not explode, but he’ll still be highly owned.
Kansas City is probably the most popular defense this week for two reasons: they’re facing a bad Jaguars offense and they have been amazing with 10+ fantasy points in four of their last five games. The odds of Blake Bortles destroying them aren’t great, so fire them up with confidence.
- Cam Newton, QB, Panthers ($7k)
- Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders ($4k)
- Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants ($8.8k)
- Eric Ebron, TE, Lions ($3.1k)
- Lions Defense ($2.5k)
Going contrarian can either be pivoting off a popular elite play, using a stud few will be high on or simply going with a player that comes of as random.
Newton starts off our week 9 contrarian picks, seeing as he’s got amazing upside and is projected to be owned just 5-8% this week. The Rams are not a cakewalk opponent, but Newton has two 30+ fantasy outings in 2016 he always carries the dual threat upside to go nuts in any matchup. He could very well do that this week and he’ll probably end up being low owned.
Murray is another interesting pick, as he’s a good pivot away from popular cheap options like Darren Sproles or Charcandrick West. He also has been productive, with games of 12 and 20 fantasy points lately. Some will look at his week 9 date with the Broncos and be scared off, but the reality is Denver’s run defense ranks just 22nd over the last four weeks. With Murray at home in a huge SNF game, it is very likely he meets (or even crushes) his perceived value.
ODB could be a monster value/contrarian play this week, as he’s a reasonable price for what he can do (44 fantasy points just two games ago) and many will be off of him due to a tough paper matchup with the Eagles. Philly is not an ideal date, but Beckham can be matchup proof at times. He’s also a very interesting pivot away from Antonio Brown, which could end up being a huge deal if ODB thrives and Brown has a mediocre outing.
Ebron is another interesting pivot, as he’s just $100 more than a very popular sleeper in Antonio Gates. Ebron has a way tougher matchup on the road with the Vikings, but the Lions should be throwing the ball a lot against a Minnesota defense that is just middle of the pack against tight ends over the past four weeks.
Sticking with that game, why not consider a cheap Lions defense? Given how awful the Minnesota offense has looked, its plenty logical to think this could be a dream date for a Detroit defense that has managed to pour in at least 5 fantasy points in four of their last five games. Detroit isn’t safe and they don’t possess a ton of upside, but this actually might not be a bad spot to try to save salary with them.
That does it for our week 9 daily fantasy football preview. Hopefully our insight helps you win some serious cash this week!
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