Wells Fargo Championship Preview With Odds and Pick
The 2016 Wells Fargo Championship promises to be an interesting stop on this year’s PGA Tour, as Phil Mickelson eyes his first ever win in his 12th try at Quail Hollow Club.
The tourney starts off with some big names exiting early, as Smylie Kaufman and Dustin Johnson have both already been ruled out due to injury. That’s massive news, too, considering Johnson had the second best odds going into the event (14/1) and Kaufman was a viable sleeper with fun betting odds (90/1).
With this year’s Wells Fargo Championship opening up a bit, further onus will be placed on the leading favorite, Rory McIlroy, who took the event last year with a tourney record 61. That being said, a fairly stacked field should come to play, as 8 of the world’s top-12 golfers will be at hand.
Let’s break down the odds, the main favorites and interesting dark horses to consider for when the players hit the green this Thursday:
Best Wells Fargo Odds
- Rory McIlroy (+400)
- Rickie Fowler (+1400)
- Adam Scott (+2000)
- Henrik Stenson (+2200)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
- Justin Rose (+2500)
- Phil Mickelson (+2800)
- J.B. Holmes (+2800)
There is little argument needed to buy into McIlroy, who despite a sluggish 2016 campaign remains arguably the most gifted pro golfer in the world. He also won this event with a blazing run in 2015 and has really been amazing here, finishing inside the top-10 five times in six tries, hoisting two titles and finishing second in another. He owns this tourney and Vegas knows it. Hopefully golf bettors do, too.
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 4, 2016
For every favorite there are quite a few challengers, and that’s especially the case in a stacked field. Fowler stands out as the most obvious threat, largely because Dustin Johnson is out and Fowler has been amazing for much of 2016. He doesn’t have a win yet this season, but has placed inside the top-10 five times and did win here back in 2012. We’ve picked him a few times to win this year and he’s come close. This may be a great spot for him to finally get the job done.
Fowler isn’t the only potential ace in the hole, as Scott has been a beast in 2016, carrying two wins and four top-5 finishes into the Wells Fargo Championship. He had solid success at this event years ago, but he’s slowed down a bit recently and also hasn’t been able to make the cut in his last three tries here. He probably gets past it this time, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to win.
Holmes has won here, but he’s right there in the middle of things with guys like Matsuyama, Rose, Reed and Stenson. The guy to really consider is Mickelson, as he has fun odds considering how good he’s been at Quail Hollow Club. The guy is ageless, having made all of his 11 cuts here, along with an impressive five top-5 runs. Is it finally his time?
- Jamie Lovemark (+5000)
- Justin Thomas (+4000)
- Bill Haas (+6600)
- Webb Simpson (+10000)
- Lucas Glover (+15000)
This is a very busy player pool, which is going to make it very tough to thin things out. Needless to say, we can already see a bunch of contenders we like, and there are also a good amount of guys who could be sneaky sleepers. Of that second grouping, we like Lovemark, Thomas, Haas, Simpson and Glover the most, and for very different reasons.
Lovemark came close to taking first last week and he’s looked good lately. He is 0-2 for cuts at Quail Hollow but has been otherwise sound on the year, cracking the top-10 an impressive five times. Coming in with a place of 18th or better in three of his last four tourneys, he’s a sleeper to watch.
Thomas is among the more talented pros and the 23-year old is enjoying a stout 2016 showing with one win and three top-5 runs under his belt. There’s little evidence specifically pointing to this tourney being his second first place finish, but his stellar play promotes the possibility and his odds offer up nice pay potential.
The payout looks even better with Haas and Simpson. Haas has been very strong throughout 2016 and has even finished inside the top-5 two times before at this event. He’s been a mixed bag lately, but he’s made it past four cuts in a row and has shown enough thus far to promote optimism this weekend. Simpson is a little more interesting, as his odds carry more upside and he’s actually had even more success at the Wells Fargo Championship. Simpson tied for second place here in 2015 and routinely golfs at Quail Hollow for practice. He knows the course and could be back to finish what he started a year ago.
The other stable sleeper to consider is Lucas Glover, who won back in 2011 and tied for second in 2009. He has three top-four runs at this event, to be more specific, and he’s also enjoyed a stable 2016 run, where he’s made 9 of 14 cuts. He hasn’t cracked a top-20 in eight tourneys, but he’s made four straight cuts and loves playing here. He’s certainly a big name to watch considering he upside his odds have to offer.
Looking for an insane sleeper? Consider someone with the worst possible odds. Past champion Derek Ernst fits the bill (500/1 odds), as he won pretty recently in 2013. He’s been pretty brutal in 2016, but at least found a way to crack the top-40 in his last event. He’s the exact opposite of a stable bet, but success here in the past is enough to consider a mild bet on such ridiculous odds. Keep in mind, even a $50 bet on +6000 odds would net you a whopping $30,000.
We’re going with Phil. Buying into the top favorite has rarely worked this year and we’ve been swinging and missing on Fowler for longer than we care to admit. Something feels right about Phil this time, as he’s had a ton of success at this event and obviously knows and feels this course extremely well.
He could disappoint, but his odds offer a solid payout and he certainly has the experience and talent to get the job done. His chief competition remains McIlroy and Fowler, but we like him to get his first title here, and on the year.
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