AFC Betting Preview: Texans vs Jets Odds, Pick and Predictions

By Rick Rockwell in NFL on December 12, 2018

In the first of two Saturday games this week, the Houston Texans head east to take on the New York Jets in a big game for the Texans who are trying to capture the AFC South division.

The Jets have long been out of contention, but they’re looking to play spoiler and want to see their rookie QB battle against this rugged Texans defense. Kickoff inside Metlife Stadium is at 4:30 PM ET.

Texans vs Jets Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of Live Odds feed:

Betting Data Houston Texans New York Jets
Current S/U record 9-4 4-9
2018 Home 5-2 2-4
2018 Away 4-2 2-5
2018 ATS 6-7 5-8
2018 ATS Home 3-4 2-4
2018 ATS Away 3-3 3-4
2018 O/U 5-8 8-5
2018 O/U Home 3-4 4-2
2018 O/U Away 2-4 4-3

Houston vs New York AFC Game Preview

Since the Texans have come into the league, the Jets have gone 5-2 against them. However, the Texans have won the last two meetings. The last time Houston played in New York was 2012 and the Texas won 23-17.

Houston (9-4) is 4-2 on the road and coming off a disappointing loss to the Colts by a score of 24-21. It ended the Texans’ 9 game winning streak. Houston fell flat on offense as they could only muster up 315 total yards. Even worse, QB Watson led the team with 35 yards rushing. Houston looks to get back on track with a juicy matchup against the inferior Jets this Saturday.

New York (4-9) is only 2-4 at home on the year, but they did end a 6 game losing streak by winning in Buffalo this past weekend. Rookie QB Sam Darnold returned from his foot injury and the team is looking to develop him more. Will the Jets pull off the upset or will the Texans come into town and win as expected?

The Texans opened up as the clear-cut favorite with most online betting sites. Houston started off as a 6.5 to 7 point favorite with these internet sportsbooks. Since then, the spread has come down slightly and the Texans are now favored by 6 points. The Over/Under opened at 42.5 total points with most NFL betting sites. The O/U has come down slightly to the current total of 41.5 points.

Free NFL Spread Bet and Game Prediction: Texans -6

I expect the Texans to get back on track this weekend. Specifically, I see the Houston rushing attack producing on Saturday. Houston has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL as they average 136.8 ypg. Against the Colts last weekend, the Texans only tallied 89 rushing yards on the day. Lead running back Lamar Miller had just 33 yards rushing.

This weekend, Miller and company will get at least 120 rushing yards on the day as the Jets give up 132 rushing ypg and 25.4 ppg. Miller has 909 rushing yards on the season and he could possibly break the 1,000 yard mark on Saturday with a big performance.

The Jets defense allows 259.4 passing ypg, which is 6 yards more per game than what Houston averages. With that said, I expect QB Watson to have a solid outing and get at least 250 passing yards on the day. He will definitely win the QB battle against Darnold who has 12 TDs and 15 INTs on the year.

The Texans defense does give up 280.5 passing ypg, but they only allow 88.2 rushing ypg and 19.9 ppg. So, they definitely clamp down on opposing offenses and force them to become one-dimensional.

Against the Jets, I see Houston taking away the running game and forcing Darnold to beat them. This will allow Watt and Clowney to dictate the game, which surely favors Houston.

I believe Houston will win this game outright. However, I don’t like their -260 moneyline as it provides no betting value. The Jets at +220 odds is rather low in my opinion considering the disparity in talent. They’re not even worth a flyer.

The Over/Under should be avoided because these two teams combine to score 45.6 ppg and may eclipse that if the defenses don’t show up. Or, the Texans could hold New York to 10 points or less and win by two touchdowns. I’m not comfortable with this NFL wager either. The smart play is Houston covering the 6-point spread at -114 odds.

I believe the Texans can win this game by more than 7 points. So, any spread under a touchdown is very appealing.

The Jets are 2-4 ATS at home this season, 4-9 ATS following a divisional game, 0-3 ATS this year when playing against teams with a winning record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall games, 1-5 ATS following a SU win, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on Saturdays.

The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC, 5-1 ATS versus teams with losing home records, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Houston is 11th in the league for sacks. I expect Watt and Clowney to pick up a few sacks this weekend. I don’t see the Jets offensive line holding up against this defensive front. Darnold has struggled against top defenses this season as the Jets lost against the Jaguars, Vikings and Bears by a combined score of 92 to 39. I expect that trend to continue this Saturday.

Offensively, I see Houston scoring at least 27 points and capitalizing on play action against the Jets due to a solid rushing attack on Saturday. Take the Texans to cover the spread and win by a score of 27 to 17.

Texans vs Jets Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Texans (-260) and Jets (+220)
  • Spread: Texans -6 (-114)
  • Over/Under: 41.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Texans 27 – Jets 17
Pick: Texans -6
-114

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Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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