On Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers will continue their march toward the Super Bowl by playing on the road for a second straight weekend when they head to Massachusetts to take on the New England Patriots.
The Chargers were able to defeat the Ravens last weekend and look to pull off another upset this week. The Patriots are coming off a bye week and look to head back to the AFC title game once again.
Will New England take advantage of playing at home by winning this game or will the Chargers end the Patriots dynasty? Kickoff inside Gillette Stadium is at 1:05 PM ET.
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The following odds are courtesy of live odds feed:
|Betting Data||Los Angeles Chargers||New England Patriots|
|Current S/U record||13-4||11-5|
|2018 ATS Home||2-6||6-2|
|2018 ATS Away||8-1||3-5|
|2018 O/U Home||3-5||2-6|
|2018 O/U Away||5-4||3-5|
The Chargers and Patriots have played against each other 41 times, with New England holding a 24-15-2 record. The Patriots have won 4 straight against Los Angeles and 6 out of the last 7 overall games. New England is 2-1 all-time in the playoffs against the Chargers.
The Chargers (13-4) dominated the Ravens for 3 ½ quarters last weekend before almost allowing Baltimore to stage a furious rally and win the Wild Card game. This is something that can’t happen on Sunday against the Patriots because Tom Brady will succeed in a comeback just like he did in 2007 against the Chargers in the playoffs.
It’s a loss that LA quarterback Philip Rivers still talks about and has waited over a decade to avenge. Can the Chargers pull off another upset and get revenge against the Patriots? LA is 12-17 all-time in the playoffs and haven’t made the AFC Championship game since they lost to the Patriots in the 2007 title game.
The New England Patriots (11-5) are coming off a bye week and look to extend their impressive 34-20 postseason record. New England finished off the season on a strong note as they won their last two games by a total of 62 to 15.
Albeit, those two games were against the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. Nevertheless, the Patriots went 8-0 at home this year and they look to remain undefeated at Foxboro. Can New England head to their 8th straight AFC Championship game?
The New England Patriots opened as a 5 point favorite over the Chargers at most internet sportsbooks. Since then, the spread has slowly come down to the current line of -4 for New England with most online betting sites. The Over/Under can’t seem to make up its mind as it continues to bounce back and forth between 47 and 46.5 total points with most football betting sites.
As great as it would be for two new teams to play in the AFC Championship game, it’s hard to imagine that the Patriots will lose at home. At 8-0 on the season, New England has been a much better team on both sides of the ball.
Additionally they’re 10-3 in their last 13 overall playoff games, which makes me even more confident that they will win. With that said, I do believe that the Chargers will keep the game within 4 points and cover the spread.
Los Angeles bounced back last weekend against Baltimore and showed that they have the toughness on both sides of the ball to be a contender in the AFC. They’ve extended their road record to 8-1 on the year, which proves they have the ingredients to go into Gillette Stadium and win. But, having the ingredients and actually doing it are two different things.
New England finished as the #8 passing team in the league at 266.1 ypg. They were 4th in scoring with a 27.2 ppg average and 5th in rushing with 127.3 ypg. Their offense averages 393.4 total ypg, which is good for 5th in the NFL. So, the Chargers will have a tough challenge to try and stop New England’s offense at home.
The Chargers are 9th in rushing yards (105.8) and passing yards allowed (227.9 ypg). They’re also 8th in scoring as they allow 20.6 ppg. They’ve improved over the season as their top defender Bosa got healthier.
Last weekend against the Ravens, Bosa and Ingram wreaked havoc all game long on the Baltimore offense. They will need to do the same thing this weekend in order for the Chargers defense to get off the field.
The winner of this game will be the team that can establish a strong running game. The Patriots averaged 127.3 ypg and the Chargers (15th overall) averaged 117.1 ypg. Moving the chains on the ground will allow the offense to control the clock and keep the opposing team’s offense on the sidelines.
Last weekend, the Chargers mustered up 89 yards on the ground against the Ravens. This weekend I expect the Chargers to have more success. New England allows 112.7 ypg and the Chargers allow 105.7 ypg. Both teams have talented backfields, but I like the combo of Gordon and Ekler over White, Michel and Burkhead.
Another area that I feel the Chargers have the advantage is with the wide receiver group. Los Angeles can roll out 3-wide receiver sets that include Allen, Williams and Williams, which will be tough for the Patriots to matchup against. New England doesn’t have another receiver other than Edelman.
The Chargers are 5-1 ATS as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in road games this year, 4-1 ATS versus teams with winning records, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall games. The Patriots are 3-3 ATS after winning 3 or more games, 3-2 ATS versus winning teams, and only 4-4 ATS when a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
I believe the Chargers have the team to go into Foxboro and win the game. But, until someone actually knocks off the Patriots at home in the playoffs, it’s hard to bet against them. With that said, I feel really good about the Chargers covering. I’m taking New England to win by a late field goal, but Chargers to lost by less than 4 points (-107).
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