On Saturday, the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs open up the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. The Colts will play a second straight playoff road game as they head to Kansas City and their raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs look to continue their dominant play at home by defeating the Colts and advancing to the AFC Championship. Will the Chiefs offense score another win on the year or will the Colts find a little road luck and upset another AFC betting favorite?
Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 4:35 PM ET.
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The following odds are courtesy of live odds feed:
|Betting Data||Indianapolis Colts||Kansas City Chiefs|
|Current S/U record||11-6||12-4|
|2018 ATS Home||3-4-1||4-4|
|2018 ATS Away||6-3||5-2-1|
|2018 O/U Home||4-4||3-5|
|2018 O/U Away||4-5||7-1|
The Colts and the Chiefs have played against each other 25 times, with the Colts leading the series 16-9. Saturday’s Wild Card game will mark the 5th time these two teams have played against each other in the playoffs.
Currently, the Colts are 4-0 against Kansas City in the postseason. No playoff win was more intense than when the Colts came back from a 4-score deficit to beat KC in the 2013 NFL playoffs.
Indianapolis (11-6) comes into this Divisional Round playoff game having won 5 straight games including their Wild Card matchup against Houston last weekend. Indy was a slight road underdog, but would go on to win 21 to 7. The game wasn’t even as close as the score indicates.
Indy dominated on both sides of the ball for all four quarters. With that Wild Card win, the Colts improved their all-time postseason record to 23-23. Can the Colts pull off another upset and get to the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 2014 playoffs?
Kansas City (12-4) has been one of the best teams all season long. They had a much needed bye week during the opening round of the playoffs and look to take full advantage of playing at home this weekend. There are a few coaches and players that remember the loss to the Colts 5 years ago and hope to get revenge on Saturday.
KC will need to exercise their postseason demons in order to beat the Colts this weekend. The Chiefs are 1-9 in the playoffs in their last 10 postseason games. Can the Chiefs overcome their past and fulfill their promising future?
The spread for this game has seen some movement since the opening of -6 points in favor of the Chiefs. Throughout the week, the spread slowly came down to -4.5 before rising back up to -5 points at most online betting sites. The Over/Under hasn’t seen much movement at all after opening at 57 points. Most football betting sites have the O/U still at 57.
The surging Colts hope to ride their momentum into the Divisional Round of the playoffs and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, which isn’t an easy thing to do. However, Indy is 4-0 all-time in the postseason against the Chiefs and they do have enough talent to hang with KC at home.
For the Colts to win, they will need a near-perfect game from their defense to slow down the Chiefs offense that is one of the best in the league. KC was #1 in total yards at 425.6 ypg, #3 in passing at 309.7 ypg, #16 in rushing at 115.9 ypg, and #1 in scoring at 35.3 ppg.
The Colts have improved greatly over the last few years on defense, but will they be able to stop all of these weapons on KC’s offense?
If Indy can’t slow down the Chiefs, then they will have to score more points and make this a game where the team to get the ball last will win it. And, I think that’s how they will cover the spread, but fall just short of winning outright.
The Colts average 27.1 ppg in the season and have the 6th ranked pass offense at 278.8 ypg. They get a sweet matchup against the 31st ranked pass defense that allows 273.4 ypg. I fully believe that Andrew Luck will be able to duel with Mahomes all game long.
In fact, Luck might have more success as the Colts defense only allows 237.8 ypg against the pass. Luck had awesome passing numbers this year, but Mahomes surpassed him in every major category as he will be this season’s MVP. With that said, I fully expect Luck to match Mahomes’ output in this game.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts won this game as they’re the hotter team right now. For now, I’m only willing to wager on the Colts +5 spread (-104) and not their moneyline of +195.
The Colts are 6-3 ATS in road games this year, 6-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, 5-1 SU following a divisional game, 9-4 ATS when playing against teams with winning records including 5-0 this year, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall games, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against the Chiefs, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at KC.
The Chiefs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 overall games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 0-2 ATS in their last 2 playoff games, 3-4 ATS versus the AFC South, 1-2 ATS in January games, and 0-3 ATS when playing teams with winning records in the second half of the season.
I like the Colts to have a chance at winning this game, but falling short due to a late-game FG by the Chiefs. KC 30 and the Colts 28.
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