Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns betting prediction

By in NFL on
5 Minute Read
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns Pick – Cleveland (-168)
BetOnline Logo

The Arizona Cardinals hit the road to face the Cleveland Browns in an interconference NFL battle on Sunday afternoon. All eyes will be on he Cardinals as they try to stay unbeaten, the last remaining team in the NFL in 2021 that hasn’t suffered a loss.

Cleveland believes it is one of the league’s best teams as well, even though they’ve already suffered a pair of losses. They’ll try to knock off the unbeaten when the action begins at 4:05 PM Eastern Time on Sunday afternoon at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Arizona Cardinals +3 (-107) +148 Over 49.5 (-107)
Cleveland Browns -3 (-113) -168 Under 49.5 (-113)
Betting Data Arizona Cardinals Cleveland Browns
2021 Record 5-0 3-2
2021 Home 2-0 2-0
2021 Away 3-0 1-2
2021 ATS 4-1 3-2
2021 ATS Home 1-1 1-1
2021 ATS Away 3-0 2-1
2021 O/U 2-3 3-2
2021 O/U Home 1-1 1-1
2021 O/U Away 1-2 2-1

Arizona Cleveland Preview

As two teams coming from different conferences, the Browns and Cardinals don’t get to face each other very often these days. They do have some history from when the two franchises competed in the old NFL. The series stands in favor of Cleveland with 33 wins against Cleveland’s 15 with three ties.

Arizona stands as the last remaining NFL team and they’ve had to beat some solid squads to get to that point. They’ve knocked off NFC West rivals Los Angeles and San Francisco to put an early stranglehold on the division. Third-year quarterback Kyler Murray is the early favorite for MVP honors with his hot start.

The Browns record may not look great at first glance, but it improves when you remember their two losses were on the road to tough AFC West squads (Kansas City and Los Angeles.) Either one of those games could have gone either way. Many experts even talked about the Chargers-Browns game last week as a possible AFC Championship preview.

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

For most of the time since the point spread line was posted last week, it has been the Browns as a 2 1/2 point favorite. But the late movement went just a bit in Cleveland’s favor. At the current time, the Browns are three-point favorites at home.

It’s been a bit surprising to see how the over/under line has dropped so significantly, especially considering the Browns just gave up 47 points in their last game. Instead, the over/under, which began at 54, plummeted all the way down to 49.5.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have won the last four times these teams have played, dating all the way back to 2007
  • Arizona has also covered the spread in three of their last four meetings
  • The home team has won the game between Cleveland and Arizona in six of the last seven meetings
  • Since 1985 in this series, the over has done better than the under, to the tune of a 6-2-1 mark
  • The underdog has won the game outright in two of the last three games in this series

Arizona Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in four of their first five games to begin the year
  • Not only have they won their first three games of the year on the road, but Arizona has also covered the spread in all three of those games
  • The under has been the correct bet in two of the three games Arizona has played on the road this season
  • The Cardinals have won five of their last seven games played against the AFC North
  • Arizona has covered the spread in five straight games in the month of October
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 67 percent of their games as an underdog since 2019
  • They’ve also covered the spread at the same rate of 67 percent in road games over that same time span
  • Arizona has covered the spread only 29 percent of the time when playing a team with a winning record over the past three years

Cleveland Browns Betting Trends

  • The Browns have won both of their home games to start the year, covering the spread in one of them
  • Going back to last season, the Browns have covered the spread in five of their last seven games
  • Cleveland has covered the spread in six games in a row played against NFC teams
  • On the flip side, they have now failed to cover the spread in their last five games against the NFC West
  • The Browns have covered the spread just 33 percent of the time in games played in October since 2019
  • Cleveland has not fared well as a favorite against the spread over the past three years, covering with a record of 9-13
  • They are also just 7-10 against the spread at home since 2019
  • Cleveland has covered the spread just 40 percent of the time against teams with winning records since 2019

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

The Browns enter this matchup in a situation similar offensively to what they faced against the Chargers last week. They like to run the ball and run it very well, and the Cardinals don’t stop the run very effectively. Arizona is just 31st in the NFL in opponents yards per rush, but game script has helped them avoid too many issues.

That could certainly change on Sunday. Cleveland will stay dedicated to the run with their withering one-two punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That could put the Cards on their heels and slow their pass rush. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, coming off his best game of the season, will be glad for it.

On top of that, Chandler Jones, by far the Cardinals best pass rusher, is expected to miss the game with COVID-related issues. Jones has 5 sacks and 14 QB bits; the next highest totals on the Cards are 2 and 6, respectively. Look for Mayfield to stand in the pocket a little more comfortably on Sunday.

The Browns defense was riding high until they were slapped around by the Chargers. Now they face a Cardinal team with a similar approach: a mobile quarterback, talented receivers spread all over the field, enough of a running game that you have to respect. Can they pick themselves off the mat for another battle?

One thing that could help is that the Cardinals will be missing starting center Rodney Hudson with a rib injury. The former Raider has been crucial to stabilizing the line this season. That could mean that Kyler Murray might have to move from the pocket a little more than usual, although he’s good in that mode as well.

It’s a surprise to see the over/under dropping, because it appears both of these offenses will be able to do what they do best. This is the best team that the Cards have faced (yes, that includes the Rams), and the injuries likely lead to their first loss. But Murray and the offense will allow them to cover the small spread.

Pick: Cleveland
Odds: -168
$100 Could Win You...$159.52

Arizona vs Cleveland Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Arizona +148, Cleveland -168
  • Spread: Arizona +3 (-107), Cleveland -3 (-113)
  • Over/Under: 49.5 (Over -107, Under -113)
  • Prediction: Cleveland 28, Arizona 27
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

View all posts by Jim Beviglia
Email the author at: [email protected]