Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Odds, Pick, and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on December 4, 2018

On Saturday, college football fans and military personnel will get to enjoy the 118th meeting between the Army Black Knights and the Navy Midshipmen. Army has won the last two games in this rivalry and looks to win their 10th game of the season. Navy has been abysmal all season long and is hoping to pull off the big upset against their longtime rivals. Kickoff inside Lincoln Financial Field is at 3 PM ET.

Army vs Navy Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of Live Odds feed:

Betting Data Navy Midshipmen Army Black Knights
Current S/U record 3-9 9-2
2018 Home 3-3 6-0
2018 Away 0-6 3-2
2018 ATS 5-7 6-4-1
2018 ATS Home 3-3 2-3-1
2018 ATS Away 2-4 4-1
2018 O/U 7-5 6-5
2018 O/U Home 4-2 2-4
2018 O/U Away 3-3 4-1

Army vs Navy Rivalry Game Preview

Prior to Army’s 2 straight wins, the Midshipmen had won 15 straight games over the Black Knights. That winning streak propelled Navy to an all-time record of 60-51-7 against Army. This rivalry first began in 1890 and has many memorable moments along the way. Who will win the Commander in Chief’s trophy this Saturday?

Army (9-2) comes into this matchup having won 7 straight games and enjoying their best season in over two decades. The Black Knights haven’t lost since they played Oklahoma in their 4th game of the season. If you recall, Army lost in OT to the Sooners, who are now the 4th seed in the country and playing in the CFP. Army’s defense continues to excel as does their rushing attack. Will they dispatch of Navy this weekend?

Navy (3-9) narrowly lost to Tulane in their last contest. It was the 8th loss in their last 9 games, which further cemented their disappointing season and a basement finish in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen played better over the last three games of the season, but weren’t competitive at all against better teams. Can they dig down deep within themselves to play their best game of the year against Army this weekend?

For most online betting sites, Army opened as a 7-point favorite. Throughout the week, the line barely moved as most sportsbooks still have the Black Knights favored by 7 points. The Over/Under opened all over the place. Depending on which football betting site you use, the O/U opened anywhere from 42 to 50 total points. Currently, the majority of internet sportsbooks have the O/U at 41 total points.

Free NCAAF Sports Bet and Prediction: Army -7

This game will come down to which team can successfully run the ball better and which defense will stop the run. On the year, Navy has averaged 288.9 rushing ypg and Army has averaged 303 ypg. Neither team passes the ball much, but Army does seem to have an advantage here.

Black Knights QB Hopkins has 895 passing yards with 6 TD and 3 INT. Former Navy QB Lewis had 398 passing yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs on the year. His poor play allowed Abey to take back over the starting QB spot last month. However, Abey hasn’t done much better as he finished with less yards than Lewis. If the game comes down to a throwing contest, I like Army to win.

As for rushing the ball, both teams excel in this aspect of the offense. It starts with each team’s QB as Navy’s Abey has rushed for over 300 yards and 14 rushing TDs. Army’s Hopkins has over 780 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. From there, each team has a dangerous running back. Navy’s RB Perry has tallied 1,035 yards and 7 TDs, while army’s Woolfolk has tallied 823 yards and 14 TDs.

Both teams can score off their running games as Navy averages 26.3 ppg and Army averages 30.8 ppg. However, there’s a big difference in the defenses. Army’s defense has played at a high level all year long as they only allow 18.7 ppg. They also only give up 301.3 total ypg, 194.8 passing ypg, and 106.5 rushing ypg. Navy allows 34.9 ppg, 438.3 total ypg, 249.3 passing ypg, and 189 rushing ypg.

I really like Army in this game as I believe they have a defense that will hold Navy’s run game in check. The Midshipmen don’t have a passing QB that can beat Army with his arm. However, I do think that Hopkins can have a solid passing game for Army in this matchup due to Navy’s poor pass defense. I also believe that Army can run all over the Midshipmen.

I don’t like the moneylines in this game as Army’s moneyline of -275 offers no value. And, I don’t see a scenario where Navy wins. The O/U is hit or miss in this game because Army could score 30+ points all by themselves or this game could be much lower in score like last year when Army won 14 to 13.

For me, the smart play is Army winning by more than a touchdown. The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS following a Bye Week, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 December games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Navy, 6-3 ATS this year, and 4-2 ATS when a favorite. Navy is 2-4 ATS after a Bye Week, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 December games.

I don’t see Navy having a lot of success against the Army defense, where the Black Knights will move the ball up and down the field on the poor Midshipmen defense. I believe Army could win by double digits and recommend taking the spread with confidence.

Army vs Navy Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Army (-275) and Navy (+230)
  • Spread: Army -7 (-104)
  • Over/Under: 41 total points (-110)
Prediction: Army 27 – Navy 17
Pick: Army -7
-104

$100 Stake Could Win...

$196
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