The Buffalo Bills, fresh off their second win of the season, head south to take on the resurging Houston Texans. Both teams come into this contest with two wins and hope to move one game closer to leading their respective AFC divisions. Once again, the Bills are staring down the barrel of being a double digit underdog for the 4th time this season. Will Buffalo pull off another upset or will Houston protect their home field? Kickoff inside NRG Stadium is at 1 PM ET.
|Betting Data||Buffalo Bills||Houston Texans|
|Current S/U record||2-3||2-3|
|2018 ATS Home||1-1||0-2|
|2018 ATS Away||1-2||1-2|
|2018 O/U Home||1-1||1-1|
|2018 O/U Away||1-2||1-2|
Since 2002, the Texans and the Bills have played 8 times overall. Each team has come away with 4 wins apiece. Their last meeting was in 2015, which the Bills won 30-21. However, the Texans have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head games.
Buffalo (2-3) is coming off a last second FG win over the Tennessee Titans at home. Buffalo does have an impressive road win on the season when they shocked the NFL by beating the Vikings in Minnesota. So, they do have the potential of pulling off another upset this weekend in Houston. With that said, it’s going to be tough considering the Texans are starting to get healthy and fulfilling their potential.
Houston (2-3) has won their second game in a row and it was another OT thriller as they defeated the Cowboys 19-16. Two weeks ago, the Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in OT. The Texans appear to be getting healthier and hitting their stride on offense. Watson and company are now making the plays that they weren’t able to make earlier in the season, which is resulting in wins. Can the Texans make it 3 straight wins and put themselves back into the conversation of winning the AFC South?
Depending on which sports betting site you are looking at, this spread has been all over the place. From an opening of 9.5 and moving all the way up to 11 points at some sportsbooks, the spread has finally settled at -10 for the Houston Texans with most betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 40.5 total points and remains unchanged with most sportsbooks.
The Bills are the perfect example of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde as they’ve been blown out in their 3 losses by a total score of 100 to 23, but also have won 2 games over top teams by a score of 40 to 18. You don’t know which team will show up. However, if the last three weeks are any indication, you can expect a tough Bills defense to show up on Sunday.
The Bills might have the worst offense in the league, but they have one of the most rugged defenses in the NFL. Over the last 3 weeks, the defense has given up 312 total ypg and 16.6 ppg. In that span, they held the Vikings to 292 total yards and 6 points, and the Titans to 221 total yards and 12 points. Furthermore, it was the Packers in Lambeau that put up 423 total yards and 22 points, otherwise the Bills defensive numbers would be vastly improved.
However, Buffalo will have a tough test this weekend as they play against the Texans who are averaging 440.4 total ypg and are 3rd in the NFL in total offense. Buffalo comes into this contest with the 10th ranked passing defense at 234.6 ypg and the 12th ranked rush defense at 96.2 ypg. They also lead the NFL in sacks with 22 and have forced 8 turnovers in the last 3 weeks. During that same span, the Texans have turned the ball over 5 times.
For Buffalo to have any chance at winning this game, they will need to prevent Houston from scoring touchdowns and just holding them to field goals. Additionally, they will need to get pressure on QB Watson and force turnovers.
For the Texans, if their duo of JJ Watts and Clowney can continue their pressure and add to their combined 8.5 sacks then they will make Buffalo’s QB Josh Allen’s life miserable.
Both teams have struggled to run the ball and both teams feature top rush defenses. Whichever team can establish the run should be able to win this game. However, it’s more important that Buffalo gets the running game going than Houston because they have a rookie QB who will be under constant pressure every time he drops back.
Buffalo is 7-3 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 10 games during October, 10-5 ATS when the Over/Under is between 35.5 and 42 total points, both 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the AFC South. The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, 2-9 SU in their last 11 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games against the AFC East, and 11-17 ATS against AFC opponents.
Houston might come away with the win this weekend, but they won’t cover the double digit spread. I expect the Bills to come in with an aggressive, tough defense to slow down that Texans offense. I also expect the Bills to keep focusing on the running game and getting the ball to McCoy out of the backfield. Last week, Houston gave up 7 receptions and 30 yards to Ezekiel Elliott out of the backfield. Two weeks ago, they gave up 9 receptions for 63 yards and 2 TDs to Colts’ RB Nyheim Hines. They’re prone to giving up receptions and big plays to pass catching RB’s, which bodes well for McCoy and the Bills this weekend.
One final matchup to watch is the Bills top DB Tre’Davious white against Houston’s top WR DeAndre Hopkins who leads the NFL with 594 receiving yards.
Take the Bills and the +10 points. If you are feeling really frisky, go with the Bills moneyline of +400 as it’s worth taking a flier on due to the team’s success over the last 3 weeks.
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