Boise State vs Oklahoma State – NCAAF Prediction for September 15th

by Rick Rockwell
on September 11, 2018
6

Minute Read

On Saturday, college football fans will be treated to an exciting Top 25 matchup as the #17 Boise State Broncos travel to Stillwater, OK, to take on the #24 Oklahoma State Cowboys. These two teams feature high scoring offenses, which means there will be plenty of action and fireworks all game long. Kickoff inside Boone Pickens Stadium is at 3:30 PM ET.

Betting Data Boise State Broncos Oklahoma State Cowboys
Current S/U record 2-0 2-0
2018 ATS 2-0 1-1
2018 ATS Home 1-0 1-1
2018 ATS Away 1-0 0-0
2018 O/U 2-0 1-0
2018 O/U Home 1-0 1-0
2018 O/U Away 1-0 0-0

Broncos vs Cowboys Top 25 NCAAF Game Preview

This is the first time that these two heralded football programs will play each other. Many of us wish it would’ve been on the blue turf, but Stillwater will be the scene of early season fireworks that could have potential New Year’s bowl implications.

Boise State (2-0) is coming off a huge victory over UConn by a score of 62-7. Now, the Huskies are not known for their football program, but Boise State also embarrassed Troy the first week of the season by a score of 56-20. The Broncos are firing on all cylinders and I expect them to come into Stillwater this weekend and put on a show against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State (2-0) has also put up stellar numbers in their first two games of the season. Last weekend they destroyed South Alabama Jaguars by a score of 55-13. OK State is a tough football team at home and they will definitely be up for the challenge this weekend. Can the Cowboys tame the Broncos on Saturday?

The spread opened at -2.5 points for the Cowboys, and it has gone up slightly to 3.5 points. The Over/Under has opened at 63.5 total points.

Free NCAAF Spread Pick and Game Prediction

This is definitely an exciting matchup between two teams that have never played against each other before. Not to mention, they both have early season aspirations of climbing up the Top 25 ranks and contending for not only their conference championship, but also a coveted CFP spot.

Boise State is the road team and looks to keep their offense rolling along. In the first two games, BSU has averaged 59 ppg, 617 total yards per game, 361.5 passing ypg, and 255.5 rushing ypg. Granted, UConn and Troy aren’t Top 25 programs, but they’re much better than the two powder puff programs that OK State played.

BSU is led by quarterback Brett Rypien who has looked great this season. He has 667 passing yards and 7 touchdown throws in two games. Sean Modster has stepped up to be the top receiving target with 241 yards and 2 TDs on 13 catches. BSU also has a top notch rushing attack with Mattison leading the way. So far, the Broncos’ top RB has 171 yards and 3 rushing TDs on 25 carries. He hasn’t had to do much since the passing game has been incredible.

For OK State, QB Taylor Cornelius has 728 passing yards and 6 TD passes on the year. He also has 3 picks, which should be a concern for OK State considering he threw them against South Alabama Jaguars and Missouri State. The Broncos are a Top 20 defense and only getting better. They’re giving up 286 ypg and holding teams to 13.5 ppg. This is going to be tough sledding for Cornelius as BSU allows just 163 passing ypg.

The Broncos have given up 123 ypg on the ground, but OK State’s Justice Hill isn’t lighting up the scoreboards yet. He does have 3 rushing TDs, but he hasn’t faced a defense like this in a while. Without Mason Rudolph as QB, I find it hard to believe that OK State’s offense will operate smoothly against the BSU defense. I believe the Broncos will win the turnover battle, which should be the difference in this matchup.

OK State hasn’t been tested yet, but BSU did play a solid Troy football team on the road. This is the same team that beat LSU last year. The Broncos are poised, have a veteran QB, a solid running game and a great defense. OK State has question marks on both sides of the ball.

BSU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, including covering two large spreads this year. They’re 11-1 SU in their last 12 games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 SU in their last 6 road contests. They’re 3-0 ATS as an Underdog over the last few years and 9-3 SU in their last 12 non-conference games.

OK State does have some solid numbers against the spread, but I would like to point to a 5-4 ATS in last 9 games during September, 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games on 6 days or less, 11-11 ATS on Saturdays, 11-10 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite, and 20-24 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3 points.

I believe that Boise State is too balanced on offense for OK State to handle. The Broncos can also keep pace with the high scoring Cowboys who are averaging 56.5 ppg. Additionally, Boise State has a better defense, which they ranked higher than OK State in every major 2017 defensive category. This year, they’ve returned most of their starters and have picked up where they left off last season.

I like BSU in this game as I believe this will be Boise State’s coming out party in 2018. Look for the Broncos to not only cover the spread, but I’m picking them to win the game outright.

BSU vs OK St. Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline, 5Dimes
  • Money lines: Boise State (+135) and Oklahoma State (-155)
  • Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5 (-104)
  • Over/Under: 63.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Boise State 37 – Oklahoma State 33
Pick: Boise State +3.5
+135

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