Boston College vs Purdue – NFL Pick for September 22nd

by Rick Rockwell
on September 19, 2018
6

Minute Read

On Saturday, the undefeated Boston College Eagles head west to Indiana to take on the winless Purdue Boilermakers. This game will be a good road test for the #23 ranked BC Eagles who are looking to continue their rise through the rankings. It will also be a great opportunity for the Boilermakers to turn their season around with a big upset. Kickoff inside Ross-Ade Stadium is at 12 PM ET.

Betting Data Boston College Eagles Purdue Boilermaker
Current S/U record 3-0 0-3
2018 ATS 3-0 1-2
2018 ATS Home 2-0 1-2
2018 ATS Away 1-0 0-0
2018 O/U 2-0 2-1
2018 O/U Home 1-0 2-1
2018 O/U Away 1-0 0-0

Boston College Eagles vs Purdue Boilermakers Game Preview

The Eagles and Boilermakers have not played against each other prior to this Saturday’s matchup.

The Boston College Eagles (3-0) come into this matchup undefeated and looking pretty impressive on the offensive side of the ball. Their fast start has them ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since November 30, 2008. That year, BC went all the way to the ACC title game before losing to Virginia Tech. Will BC be able to maintain their course and make a run at the ACC’s Atlantic Division crown in 2018?

The Boilermakers (0-3) are trying to prevent their first 0-4 start since 1982 when they finished the year at 3-8. This is the first time Purdue has faced an AP Top 25 team since 2011 when they took on Illinois at home. The Boilermakers were able to beat Illinois in that contest, and they’re hoping to upset Boston College this weekend as the university celebrates homecoming and their 150th birthday.

The spread opened with BC favored by 7 and it has held steady at that line. The Over/Under opened at 65 points and has come down to 63 total points.

Free Sports Bet and NCAAF Game Prediction

The surprising BC eagles appear to have an offense that’s poised to do big things in the ACC this year. However, before they can take flight in their conference, the Eagles need to win this road game at Purdue. Despite Purdue’s record, they’re still a team that BC can’t afford to overlook.

I think the biggest matchup for this game is Purdue’s run defense versus BC’s rush offense. The Eagles are averaging 577.3 total yards per game with 285.7 ypg coming on the ground. It’s a big reason why they’re scoring 52.7 ppg and trouncing the competition. Purdue is giving up 156 rushing yards per game, which bodes well for BC and their top RB AJ Dillon who already has 432 yards and 4 rushing TDs in 3 games.

The other bad news for Purdue is that even if they can slow down the running game, their defense has been prone to giving up 319 ypg through the air. BC’s QB Anthony Brown has the arm talent to take advantage of this weak pass defense as he’s already accumulated 629 yards, 9TDs and zero interceptions this year. I believe BC’s overall balance and talent on offense will be too much for this Boilermaker defense to handle.

As for Purdue’s offense, they’re less balanced than BC as they tend to throw the ball more despite having a decent running game. Purdue averages 325.7 passing ypg with David Blough throwing for 694 yards so far. Unfortunately, he only has 3 pass TD’s and 1 interception. Additionally, he’s going up against a solid BC defense that’s only giving up 176.7 ypg through the air.

Last week, BC gave up 214 yards to Wake Forest’s QB Hartman. However, they did force 2 interceptions and held him to 20 completions on 45 attempts. Despite their success, they do need to keep Purdue’s Blough in check because he can go off. Although the Boilermakers lost last weekend to Missouri, Blough threw for 527 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 pick. So, he has the potential for a big game.

Ultimately, I believe BC has what it takes to win this game. However, I am concerned about the spread being listed at a TD on the road. BC has gone 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big 10, but they have gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. They’re also 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Unfortunately, Purdue is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against non-Big Ten teams. But, they’re 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with winning road records. So, the ATS is a bit challenging to go with.

I’m also not excited about the Over/Under for this game. With that in mind, I’m going with BC and their money line of -255. Normally, I don’t go with lines this big, but I feel good about the Eagles winning this game. They went on the road and beat Wake Forest last weekend and I think they can get another road win this weekend at Purdue.

I believe BC has more talent on their team than Purdue. Offensively, BC has more balance and a stronger running game. Defensively, BC allows only 23 ppg while Purdue only scores 27.7 ppg. Furthermore, Purdue allows 30.3 ppg and BC scores 52.7 ppg. Take BC to win this game outright 37 to 30.

Boston College vs Purdue Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Boston College (-255) vs Purdue (+215)
  • Spread: Boston College -7 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 63 total points (+100)

Prediction: Boston College 37 – Purdue 30

Pick: Boston College
-255

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