Boston vs Milwaukee Game 3 – NBA Pick for April 20th
As the series shifts to Milwaukee, the Bucks (0-2) have a lot to do if they want to get back into this series. For starters, they will need to clean up their turnover problem as the Bucks gave up the rock 15 times, which led to 21 points for Boston. That’s 35 turnovers in the first 2 games of this series.
Another area that needs fixed in a hurry is their free throw shooting, as Milwaukee went 7-of-17 for Game 2. Lastly, Milwaukee’s bench also needs to play better. In Game 2, they were outscored 41-25 by Boston’s bench.
The Celtics took Milwaukee’s best shot of the series, which was in Game 1 when the Bucks sent the game into overtime on a last second three-point shot. However, the Celtics were able to pull away in OT and win by 6. For the series, Boston has won by an average of 10 ppg and is getting contributions from several different players.
The Celtics bench is averaging 34 ppg compared to Milwaukee’s bench only scoring 24 ppg. The Celtics also are rolling out at least 5 players per game averaging double digits in points. Boston is winning the turnover margin at 11 per game compared to Milwaukee at 17.5 per game. Also, Boston has a big advantage in second chance points as they have outscored the Bucks 42-13.
For Boston to win, they need to just keep playing the way they have in the first two games. For Milwaukee to win, not only will they need to address the issues above, but their defense needs to play better as well. They’re giving up nearly 10 points more per game than their season average of 107 ppg, they’re giving up way too many second chance points, and they need to hold Boston’s backcourt in check.
For the series, Boston’s starting backcourt of Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown are averaging 48 ppg, 8 assists per game, and 8 rebounds per game. Brown put up a career playoff high of 30 points in Game 2. Milwaukee’s starting backcourt of Snell and Bledsoe are only averaging 12 ppg, 5.5 assists per game, and 8 rebounds per game. If it wasn’t for the efforts of The Greek Freak (32.5 ppg) and Middleton (28 ppg), Milwaukee wouldn’t even have a chance.
On the season, Boston went 28-13 on the road and 28-13 ATS. The Bucks had a home record of 25-16, but went 13-25 ATS. Milwaukee scored 106.8 ppg at home and gave up 105.8 ppg. The Celtics averaged 102.7 ppg on the road and gave up 100.2 ppg.
Boston has scored 116.5 ppg this series and covered the spread in both games. Milwaukee has averaged 106.5 ppg.
I like the Celtics getting 6.5 points in this contest. I see this game being a close one. With the way Boston has played in this series so far, and Milwaukee’s terrible record against the spread at home, the value is with the C’s getting points.
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