Brewers vs. Marlins MLB Picks For September 16th

by Kevin Roberts
on September 16, 2017

The Milwaukee Brewers got one step closer to locking up the NL Central title on Friday night, as they exploded for 8 runs in the 8th inning to take down the Miami Marlins. That series-opening win moved the Brew Crew into second place in the division, where they sit three games behind the Chicago Cubs.

There is still work to be done for the Brewers, but they look to put in the work on Saturday night when they again take on the Marlins. This “technically” goes down as a road game for Milwaukee, but it literally isn’t, with the lingering impact of Hurricane Irma forcing what would be a Miami home game to Miller Park.

The Marlins did give the Brewers a tough game initially on Friday, as the two road a 2-2 tie late into the game. Milwaukee’s power ultimately showed up in an easy win, however, and the Brewers will hope to carry that momentum throughout the rest of the weekend.

Zach Davies (17-8, 3.67 ERA) gets the all as he looks to continue a strong 2017 season, while the Brewers as a whole try to move past the terrible news that star pitcher Jimmy Nelson has been lost for the season.

Miami (1-9 over their last 10 games) has their own demons to exorcise, as Hurricane Irma has thrown them off their game a bit. They will lean on southpaw Adam Conley (6-7, 5.23 ERA) to help them snap out of their funk.

On paper, the Brewers look like the obvious play, as top sports betting sites like Bovada are handing them a solid -150 line to get the ball rolling. Let’s dig deep into this matchup to see if we should take the free money with Milwaukee or find another bet:

Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
VS
Miami Marlins (+130)
Total: 9

Miami offers some interesting value here and it will be interesting to see if their powerful bats can liven up in a second crack at Miller Park Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour and Marcell Ozuna were all rather quiet in game one of this series, but if they can show up, the Marlins offer solid value as road underdogs.

The best bet on the table here could be the Over, as the current Total of 9 at Bovada doesn’t seem at all out of reach. These two teams combined for 12 runs on Friday, and that was with Miami barely doing their part. The pitching is a little more steady this time around with Davis toeing the rubber, but collectively the Over figures to be in play due to the power on both sides, as well as the park.

The real play is going to continue to be backing Milwaukee, however. Davies has been rather strong lately – specifically in run prevention – as he’s given up 2 or fewer runs in a staggering six straight contests. Davies is looking at a lot of power in a park where he’s posted a weak 5.86 ERA, but his recent form makes him a solid bet.

Milwaukee’s bats have been chipping in lately, too, as the Brewers have won three straight and claimed 6 of their last 10 games. The Brewers clearly realize now is the time to strike, as the Cubs and Cardinals are pecking away at each other and series against both teams still await them on their schedule.

Losing to the Marlins isn’t an option here, but narrative aside, the Brewers just look like the better bet. Adam Conley plays a huge hand in that, as Miami’s left-handed hurler has been no stranger to the long ball in 2017 (15 home runs in 17 starts) and typically gives up a good amount of contact. None of that is a good look for him in a volatile park against a lineup that loves to go deep.

The splits favor Conley here, as the Brewers struggle with efficiency in general and certainly have a tough time connecting against lefties. That being said, Conley isn’t the type of pitcher you want to back and the Brewers have too much going for them at home. The value isn’t through the roof, but it’s worth attacking. We’ll take the Brewers at home tonight at -150.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to Win (-150)
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