The NFC South kicks off the season with a huge divisional matchup as the New Orleans Saints host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All eyes will be on Brady and the Bucs to see if they will become Super Bowl contenders as many pundits predict.
The Saints have won three straight against the Buccaneers and hope to continue that trend this weekend. Tampa Bay looks to begin the “TB 12” era with a big divisional win and to make an emphatic statement that they’re real contenders in the NFC.
The Saints and Bucs have played against each other 56 total times. New Orleans leads this series with an all-time record of 35-21. New Orleans has won three games in a row in this divisional rivalry and are 13-5 against the Bucs over the last nine years.
Tampa Bay (0-0) enters the 2020 NFL season with high expectations and plenty of excitement. The franchise had a historic offseason by bringing in Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski along with Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy to name a few.
Many pundits are predicting the Bucs to contend for the NFC Championship, with some actually picking Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl.
New Orleans (0-0) has won the NFC South division the last three years in a row and are the odds on favorite to win the division this season as well. The Saints have gone 3-1 against the Bucs in their last four home games and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at New Orleans.
The spread opened with the Saints favored by 3.5 points at most NFL betting sites and remains at this mark for most sportsbooks. The Over/Under opened at 49.5 total points with most online betting sites and remains unchanged.
Head to Head Betting Trends
The Saints are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS in last 10 meetings.
The O/U is 5-5 in last 10 matchups.
The Saints are 3-0 ATS in last three games.
Tampa is 0-3 SU in last three meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends
7-4 ATS when an Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
13-16 ATS in last 29 games
4-13 SU in last 17 games against New Orleans
2-7 SU in last nine games at Saints
1-4 ATS in last five NFC South games
2-4 ATS in last six games during September
The Over is 12-2 in last 14 overall games
The Over is 10-0 in last 10 NFC games
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends
11-4 ATS in last 15 overall games
12-3 SU in last 15 overall games
7-2 SU in last nine home games vs the Bucs
1-4 ATS in last five home games
0-6 ATS in last six Week 1 games
The Over is 12-6 in last 18 games during September
The Over is 5-2 in last seven NFC South games
Free NFL Pick: Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)
In 2019, both the Bucs and the Saints averaged over 28 ppg. Keep in mind Tampa Bay did that with Jameis Winston at QB as he also threw 30 interceptions on the year. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown 30 interceptions in the last four seasons combined.
For the Saints, I expect this team to continue as one of the best offenses in the NFL. Last year, New Orleans was in the Top 10 for total yards, passing yards and points per game. They bring back an even better offensive roster with the additions of WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Ty Montgomery.
For the Bucs, it could take time for the team to gel since there wasn’t a preseason. However, with Brady at the helm, and so much talent on the offensive side of the ball, this unit could come out firing in Week 1. Brady hasn’t had this much firepower since he had Randy Moss in New England over a decade ago.
For this matchup, I’m taking the Over 49.5 total points. I believe the Saints will be firing on all cylinders and Tampa will have to air it out to keep pace with New Orleans on the scoreboard.
In the last 10 head to head meetings, these two teams have averaged a combined total of 49.9 ppg. In the last three meetings, these two teams have combined to score 49.33 ppg.
These two teams have combined to go over 49 total points in three of the last four meetings and in four of the last six games played at New Orleans.
Furthermore, the Saints have seen the Over go 5-2 in their last seven divisional matchups. The Over is also 12-6 in New Orleans’ last 18 games during the month of September.
For the Bucs, they’ve seen the Over go 12-2 in their last 14 overall games and a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 NFC games.
Everything is shaping up to be a shootout in the Bayou on Sunday.
As for the winner, I believe the Saints will pull out the victory. They have one of the most complete rosters in the entire league while the Bucs have many new faces on both sides of the ball. I’m taking the Saints to win 30 to 27, but fail to cover the spread.
Bucs vs Saints Betting Recap:
Moneylines: Tampa Bay (+155) vs New Orleans (-175)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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