Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints NFL Game Pick

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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Pick – Buffalo (-225)
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The Thanksgiving NFL action wraps up with a nonconference battle between the Buffalo Bills and the hosting New Orleans Saints. Both teams have struggled in recent weeks and will be hungry for a victory to right their respective ships.

Each team is battling for playoff positioning, with the Bills having fallen out of first in the AFC East and the Saints trying to cling to wild card hopes. It all goes down on Thursday night, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 PM at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) -225 Over 45.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110) +195 Under 45.5 (-110)
Betting Data Buffalo Bills New Orleans Saints
2021 Record 6-4 5-5
2021 Home 3-2 2-2
2021 Away 3-2 3-3
2021 ATS 5-4-1 5-5
2021 ATS Home 2-2-1 2-2
2021 ATS Away 3-2 3-3
2021 O/U 5-5 6-4
2021 O/U Home 2-3 3-1
2021 O/U Away 3-2 3-3

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Game Preview

We don’t see these two teams play very often, which is natural as they’re from different conferences. They haven’t played since the Saints drubbed the Bills 47-10 back in 2017. On the whole, this series, which began in 1973, stands at 7-4 in favor of the Saints.

Buffalo was anointed by most experts as the team to beat in the AFC after starting the season 4-1. But they’ve since lost three of their last five games, with both their vaunted offense and their much-improved defense struggling. As a result, they now trail New England by a half-game in the AFC East.

The Saints have faced a similar disconnect between how they started the season and what has transpired lately. They stood at 5-2 after defeating Tampa Bay with Trevor Siemian subbing for injured starting quarterback Jameis Winston. But Siemian hasn’t the same success as a starter, as New Orleans has dropped three straight.

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

People haven’t been too bullish on the Saints this week, at least those betting on the game. The point spread started at 4 points but jumped all the way to 6 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come back down to 5 1/2, but that’s still a point-and-a-half in the Bills direction from earlier this week.

The over/under line has been dropping as well after starting at 47. Perhaps the increasing unlikelihood of Alvin Kamara suiting up is putting the downward pressure on it. It dropped as low as 45 before bouncing back up another half-point.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • The Saints have won the last five games they’ve played against Buffalo, dating back to 2001
  • New Orleans also covered the spread in every one of those five wins in a row over Buffalo
  • The last two times that Buffalo defeated New Orleans were both on the Saints home field
  • The average margin of victory for the Saints in the five-game winning streak over Buffalo is a little more than 19 points per game
  • The last two games in the Bills-Saints series both went over the projected points total

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

  • After starting the year 4-1 against the spread, Buffalo is just 1-3-1 in their last five games in terms of covering
  • In their last 20 games dating back to last year, Buffalo has covered the spread 65 percent of the time
  • In the Bills last 14 road games, the over has been the correct wager 71 percent of the time
  • The Bills have covered the spread in their last seven nonconference games in a row
  • Buffalo has covered the spread in 65 percent of their road games since the start of the 2019 season
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 73 percent of their road games over the past three seasons of play
  • Buffalo is 4 games above .500 against the spread as a favorite since 2019
  • Going back to 1993, the Bills have covered the spread only 29 percent of the time in games against the NFC South

New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

  • Saints games have gone over the number four games in a row and six of the last seven
  • Three of the four games New Orleans has played at home this season have gone over the number
  • New Orleans has won 67 percent of its last 12 home games
  • They’ve gone 14-3 in nonconference games over the past several seasons
  • As an underdog since 2019, the Saints have covered the spread 82 percent of the time
  • The Saints have covered the spread in just 45 percent of their home games since 2019
  • New Orleans has only played one Thursday game since the start of the 2019 season, winning that game and covering the spread
  • The Saints have only played one game against an AFC East opponent over the past three years, but they won that game and covered the spread

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

With Alvin Kamara likely set to miss another game and Jameis Winston out for the season, the Saints don’t have an identity on offense. Mark Ingram isn’t the threat catching passes out of the backfield that Kamara is (and Ingram is also banged up.) And Trevor Siemian isn’t the type of guy who can just come out winging on offense and make something happen.

That’s why it wouldn’t be completely shocking to see Taysom Hill getting meaningful snaps at quarterback in this game. His running threat would pressure the Bills defense in a way that Siemian couldn’t. And his passing ability isn’t demonstrably worse than Siemian’s anyway.

Injuries to the Saints’ two starting tackles is also harming their offense. The Bills defense is coming off a game where they were torn up by Jonathan Taylor in every which way. But there just isn’t a threat on the New Orleans side that can do that kind of damage, meaning they should be able to play aggressively as they did early in the season.

The Bills offense has staggered in the last month or so, as teams have devoted themselves to stopping the big play from Josh Allen and company. That has meant a lot of shell coverage and daring the Bills to run the ball. And Buffalo hasn’t shown the inclination to just tee off and rely on the ground.

This would be a good week to test that strategy. New Orleans’ defense is coming off a game where they struggled to handle the Eagles running game. Allen could fill the Jalen Hurts as a possible option threat to keep the Saints honest, allowing whoever is in the game for the Bills at running back to find big holes.

That, in turn, should open things up again for Allen in the air. Although Marshon Lattimore can hang with Stefon Diggs, the other Bills wideouts, and tight end Dawson Knox, should be able to win their matchups quite consistently. Buffalo should get back on track in this one, winning and covering the spread in the process.

Pick: Buffalo
Odds: -225
$100 Could Win You...$144.44

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Buffalo Bills -225, New Orleans Saints +195
  • Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110), New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 45.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Prediction: Buffalo Bills 31, New Orleans Saints 18
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

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Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of fr ...

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