In Week 4 of the NFL season, the undefeated Buffalo Bills head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders in what’s expected to be a highly entertaining matchup.
The Bills pulled off a dramatic win against the Rams last weekend while the Raiders fell to the Patriots on the road. Can Buffalo remain undefeated or will the Raiders get a big AFC upset victory? Kickoff inside Allegiant Stadium is at 4:25PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Buffalo Bills||-2.5 (-120)||-155||Over 52.5 (-110)|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+2.5 (+100)||+135||Under 52.5 (-110)|
|Betting Data||Buffalo Bills||Las Vegas Raiders|
|2020 ATS Home||2-0||1-0|
|2020 ATS Away||0-1||1-1|
|2020 O/U Home||2-0||1-0|
|2020 O/U Away||1-0||2-0|
The Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas Raiders have played against each other 41 times with the Raiders holding the slight edge at 21-20. These two teams last played in 2017 and Buffalo won 34 to 14. The Raiders have 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
Buffalo opened up as a two point favorite with most NFL betting sites. Their spread has gone up slightly to a range of 2.5 to 3 points depending on which sports betting site you use. The Over/Under opened at 49.5 points and has gone up to an O/U of 52.5 total points.
I think this game requires us to throw out betting trends from prior seasons. These two teams are very different than the last time they played (2017). In fact, they’re both noticeably better than last year’s squads.
Buffalo enters this week’s matchup as the 4th highest scoring team (31ppg) and the 2nd ranked passing offense at 346 ypg. QB Josh Allen has been spectacular with 1,038 passing yards, 10 TD throws, 1 INT, and two rushing TDs. He will have the advantage in the quarterback duel against Derek Carr.
The Raiders are giving up 30ppg, 411.3 total ypg, and 247.7 passing ypg. That number could be higher, but they played New England last weekend who put up nearly 250 rushing yards. Buffalo should be able to find success in the air and on the ground against this Las Vegas defense.
Speaking of rushing, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs has 252 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs on the season and he gets a nice matchup against a Bills defense that’s allowing 106 rushing ypg. Yet, they gave up 167 yards to the Rams last weekend, which really bodes well for Jacobs.
However, stopping the run isn’t just a problem for Buffalo as the Raiders are even worse at it. After three weeks, the Raiders have the 29th ranked rushing defense as they allow 163.7 ypg.
This is a good sign for the Bills as they got RB Devin Singletary back on track against the Rams. Singletary finished with 71 yards rushing on 13 carries. He also had four catches for 50 yards. That’s a total of 121 yards from scrimmage. I expect Buffalo to give Singletary at least 15 touches this week as well.
Until someone shows the rest of the NFL how to slow down this Buffalo offense, I just don’t see the Raiders having a chance at winning this game. I believe Buffalo will put up over 30 points again this week and Josh Allen will flirt with a 4th straight 300 yard passing performance and at least 3 TDs.
I’m going with the Bills to cover the 2.5 point spread. I actually think they will win by a touchdown. I expect their defense to bounce back this week and for the offense to keep trucking along. Look for Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Singletary all to have big games as Buffalo improves to 4-0.
If you don’t feel comfortable with the spread then take the Over 52.5 points. Both teams have gone Over in all three of their games this season. Furthermore, they’re averaging a combined 60.3ppg and they’re allowing a combined 55.7ppg.
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