Sunday’s trip to MetLife Stadium will be the second straight weekend that the Buffalo Bills have to travel and play the home team. Last weekend, they opened up the season against the Jets at MetLife. This weekend, it will be the New York Giants returning home to host the Bills.
Can the Giants get a much needed home win or will the Bills sweep both games in East Rutherford, New Jersey? Kickoff inside MetLife Stadium is at 1 PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of our live odds tool:
|2019 ATS Home||0-0||0-0|
|2019 ATS Away||1-0||0-1|
|2019 O/U Home||0-0||0-0|
|2019 O/U Away||0-1||1-0|
The Bills and the Giants have played against each other a total of 13 times. The Giants hold the slight advantage with a 7-6 record. The last time they squared off was in 2015 at Buffalo and the Giants won. The last time Buffalo was at MetLife was in 2011 and the Giants also took the victory.
The Giants are 4-1 against Buffalo in their last five head to head meetings including a three game winning streak.
Buffalo (1-0) pulled of a MetLife miracle last weekend as they were down 16-0 heading into the latter portion of the 3rd quarter. They scored 17 unanswered points, including 14 points in the 4th quarter, and defeated the Jets 17 to 16.
If that Buffalo defense can play as well this weekend as they did last weekend, and contain Saquon Barkley while pressuring Eli Manning, the Bills will come away with a MetLife sweep.
New York (0-1) returns home licking their wounds after losing 35 to 17 at Dallas last weekend. The Giants started off strong, but faded down the stretch. Their defense seemed to struggle with Dallas’ passing attack, which allowed 405 yards through the air.
If New York allows Josh Allen to throw for 300 yards then there’s no chance at winning. They will need to shore up that secondary and get after Allen all game long. Additionally, 11 rushes for Barkley just doesn’t cut it. He needs to touch the ball 25 times a game.
Initially, the New York Giants opened as a +2.5 point home underdog with most NFL betting sites. However, that spread has dropped down to just 1 point depending on which sports betting site you are looking at. The Over/Under opened at 42.5 points and has climbed up to 44.5 total points with most online betting sites.
I believe the Buffalo Bills will come away with another MetLife win on Sunday. That Buffalo defense looks very impressive. After the offense gave up four turnovers in the first half, Buffalo’s defense held the Jets offense to zero points. New York scored on a pick-six.
In the second half, the Jets scored 10 points on offense in the 3rd quarter, but were shut out in the 4th quarter. Buffalo held the Jets to 243 total yards with 175 passing yards and just 68 rushing yards. They will need a similar performance against the Giants this weekend as New York put up 474 total yards against the Cowboys in a loss.
Eli Manning had a strong game last weekend and led the Giants offense with 306 passing yards and 1 TD. The Giants were all tied up with Dallas at the end of the 1st quarter before their defense allowed 14 points in the 2nd quarter as the game quickly got away from them.
The Giants also got away from feeding Barkley as he only had 11 rushes. Arguably the best running back in the league, Barkley should be getting at least 20 rushes and five passes each game. He’s a game changer and a massive threat for the Bills on Sunday.
Offensively, Buffalo needs to build off their 4th quarter against the Jets and try to score more points in the first half of this weekend’s game. Another shutout in the first half could put the Bills in an unfavorable position once again. Look for Buffalo to run the ball more with Singletary and to test the Giants secondary with play action and three wide receiver formations.
The Giants are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games when the spread is +3 to -3, 1-5 ATS as a home under dog, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games during September.
Buffalo is 6-4 ATS and 8-3 SU in games where the spread is +3 to -3. They’re 6-3 ATS and 8-2 SU when listed as the favorite.
Buffalo has the defense to completely shut down the Giants offense and I expect that to happen. I would be surprised if New York scores more than the 17 points they put up against the Cowboys last weekend. It’s all about controlling the line of scrimmage and getting into the Giants backfield. They were very effective doing that against the Jets last weekend.
Offensively, Buffalo has to be salivating over what the Cowboys did to that Giants secondary. Allen could potentially have a career passing game if New York doesn’t fix their pass defense. Additionally, Buffalo will look to run the ball more as they only had 25 attempts last weekend with most of that volume coming in the second half.
Take Buffalo to win the game outright. Covering a one point spread is basically taking a moneyline. However, we get better odds with this 1 point spread than the Bills’ moneyline.
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