The California Golden Bears travel north to Oregon with the hopes of ending a 3 game losing streak within the Pac-12 conference. The Oregon State Beavers hope to get their first conference win of the season by taking advantage of a wounded animal. Will Cal turn their season around or will they continue their slump? Kickoff inside Reser Stadium is at 4 PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline, 5Dimes:
|Cal Golden Bears||-6.5 (-110)||-260||Over 59 (-110)|
|Oregon State Beavers||+6.5 (-110)||+220||Under 59 (-110)|
|Betting Data||Cal Golden Bears||Oregon State Beavers|
|Current S/U record||3-3||1-5|
|2018 ATS Home||0-3-1||1-2|
|2018 ATS Away||1-1||1-2|
|2018 O/U Home||2-2||2-1|
|2018 O/U Away||0-2||3-0|
Saturday’s game in Corvallis, Oregon, will be the 71st time these two schools have played against each other. California holds the advantage with a 37-31 record including winning 3 of the last 4 games. However, Oregon State did win the last matchup in Corvallis, which was in 2016.
Cal (3-3, 0-3 Pac-12) has lost 3 straight games and looks absolutely inept in conference play. Last weekend’s performance against UCLA was a new low for the Golden Bears as they lost 37-7 after committing 5 turnovers. UCLA was the bottom dwellers of the Pac-12 at the time. Now, the Golden Bears will play one of the worst conference teams over the last few years. Unfortunately, Cal has lost 14 straight conference road games. Will this weekend’s matchup be 15?
Oregon State (1-5, 0-3 Pac-12) is coming off a Bye Week after losing 4 straight games. The Beavers have been dominated on both sides of the ball and have arguably the worst defense in the conference. Will they be able to use the Bye Week to take advantage of Cal’s Pac-12 road woes?
Most sportsbooks opened with Cal a 7 point favorite. However, some betting sites like BetOnline have the spread currently at -6.5 for Cal. The Over/Under opened at 60 points depending on the sportsbook. Most betting sites saw some movement in the spread before it settled at 59 total points.
Where did this season go bad for Cal? They started off 3-0 and looked like an improved team. Then came their game against Oregon and it sparked a 3 game losing streak. Last weekend’s loss to UCLA was demoralizing and the Golden Bears need to shake it off before they reach a new all-time low by losing to Oregon State who is one of the worst football teams in all of college football.
Cal can’t seem to get their passing game going as they only average 214.5 ypg, which is lower than even Oregon State. The good thing for Cal is that the Beavers give up 541.3 total ypg and 47 ppg, which means this could really be a “bounce back” game for the Golden Bears. In their 3 Pac-12 games, Oregon State has given up 143 total points for an average of nearly 48 ppg.
On the other side, Oregon State has put up 31.5 ppg, with most of that coming in Garbage time. Cal’s defense has a chance to get some turnovers and gain some momentum going forward. Oregon State has no real threat on offense. However, Cal’s defense has been inconsistent over the last 3 weeks especially against UCLA. Even with that said, Cal only allows 334.2 total ypg with 169.8 passing ypg and 164.3 rushing ypg. So, the Beavers are going to have a tough time moving the ball.
Typically, I would love to go with the spread here, but Cal has been atrocious lately. In their last 7 games as a favorite, Cal has gone 1-6 ATS. Furthermore, Cal is 1-4-1 ATS this year, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games during Weeks 5 through 9.
With that said, I don’t trust Cal to cover a touchdown spread. But, I do trust them to win the game outright, which is why I’m going with their -260 moneyline.
Oregon State is 6-24 SU in their last 30 games, 0-6 SU as an Underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, 2-23 SU as an Underdog, 3-18 in their last 21 games against the Pac-12, 1-8 SU in their last 9 games during October, and 1-10 SU in their last 11 games during Weeks 5 through 9.
Even if Oregon State can keep it close, I don’t expect them to win this game. Cal should be able to bounce back this weekend and pick up a much needed win. They should also finally put that conference road losing streak to bed as well.
Look for Cal to set the tone with their defense and running game this weekend. Oregon State gives up 269.5 rushing yards per game and that bodes well for Cal RB Patrick Laird. Play this one safe by taking Cal’s moneyline.
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