Capitals vs Penguins – NHL Game 3 Pick for May 1st

by Rick Rockwell
on May 1, 2018

Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals is already shaping up to be an exciting contest. The Penguins who are still angry about controversial calls in Game 2, look to regain the advantage in this series by winning at home tonight. Currently, the series is all tied up at 1-1.

In Game 2, Pittsburgh protested a few plays that seemingly gave Washington all of the momentum. There was a Capitals goal that the Penguins felt shouldn’t have counted due to interference. The Penguins had a goal that didn’t count and felt it should have after seeing the review. And, if that wasn’t enough to enrage the team and the fans, Pittsburgh’s defenseman Brian Dumoulin was knocked out of the game due to a questionable hit. Dumoulin is currently in concussion protocol and might not play tonight. The Penguins are also waiting to see if Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin will play tonight.

Penguins’ goalie Matt Murray had a tough Game 2. He gave up 3 goals and had a .903 save percentage. This season, Murray played really well at home going 18-9 SU, 18-9 ATS, and .913 save percentage. Pittsburgh will need Murray to play great as they’ve been outshot by Washington 66 to 58. The Penguins will also need to find some success on their power play as the Capitals have killed all 5 of Pittsburgh’s PP attempts.

For the Capitals, Alex Ovechkin scored his 7th goal of the playoffs, which ties him with Penguins star player Sidney Crosby. Washington’s goalie Braden Holtby stopped 32 of 33 shots for a .970 save percentage. Holtby prevented the Penguins from storming back in the 2nd period as they had 16 shots on net. The Capitals went up 3-0 early in the second before Pittsburgh tried to rally. On the road, Holtby went 16-11 SU, 16-11 ATS and has a .896 save percentage.

I don’t see Washington winning this game. The Penguins are just too dominant at home and have a lot of motivation to get revenge on the Capitals for the Game 2 controversies.

Pittsburgh is 97-34 in their last 131 home games, 9-0 SU in their last nine games after a loss, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The numbers keep getting better for the Penguins. In home games where the total is 5.5 goals, the Penguins are 11-4 ATS. On Tuesday nights, the Penguins are 9-4 ATS. After allowing 4 goals or more in the previous game, Pittsburgh is 28-9 ATS. Since 1996, the Penguins are 36-19 ATS at home against Washington. Over the last 3 years, Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS and 8-4 SU against Washington at home.

Go with the Pittsburgh Penguins to win this game outright. Bovada has a really attractive moneyline for the Penguins right now at -128 and I like the home ice advantage that Pittsburgh has. Plus, Murray at home is a better play than Holtby on the road.


Bet: Penguins moneyline -128

Pick: Penguins

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Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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