Cardinals at Orioles – Free MLB Pick for June 16th

by Taylor Smith
on June 16, 2017
St Louis Cardinals (+110)
Baltimore Orioles (-141)
Total: 9
  • Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Orioles +110
  • The Orioles’ pitching staff as a whole has been bruised and batters lately. Baltimore opens their weekend series with the Cardinals having lost seven of eight overall to fall to below .500 and into fourth in the AL East. Kevin Gausman, who has struggled as much as any starter in baseball this season, will take the mound tonight opposite Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez.

    Frankly, Gausman has been awful. And that’s surprising given the way he pitched down the stretch of last season. He hasn’t been able to find his control at all, which could be problematic against a Cardinals offense that has heated up along with the weather. Gausman lasted just 3.1 innings in his last start against the Yankees and coughed up seven runs on eight hits along with six walks. Three starts ago, Gausman walked five in 5.1 innings against New York.

    Gausman has pitched beyond the sixth inning just twice in 14 starts, and several of the games in which he’s been involved have been high-scoring shootouts. The O’s lost a 14-11 game in Gausman’s second start of the season. The last three games in which he’s pitched have seen totals of 17, 11 and 14 runs scored.

    Carlos Martinez has righted the ship after a rocky start to the year, though run prevention has been an issue for him at times. His home/road splits have been as wide as any pitcher in baseball so far this season. Martinez is 4-1 with a tidy 1.85 ERA at Busch Stadium, compared to 1-4 with a bloated 5.10 mark in five away starts.

    Camden Yards is a home run-friendly park, and it’s going to be hot in Baltimore tonight. Martinez has already allowed eight longballs this season after surrendering just 15 all of last year in over twice as many starts. For his part, Gausman has been taken deep 12 times, five of which have come at home.

    The total of nine runs that Vegas slapped on this game is just too low. The O’s have been slumping lately, but this is a potential get-right spot for them now that they’re back in their home yard. The Cards have been putting some runs on the board lately, though they still managed to lose each of the last three games of their home series with the Brewers during the week.

    Take the over on this game. If you think Gausman can prevent a total meltdown, there’s also some value on the O’s as a home ‘dog on the moneyline at +110.
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