Cavaliers vs 76er’s – NBA Pick for April 6th
The Golden State Warriors offered elite betting value last night, but they did not play well en route to a 20-point loss to the Indiana Pacers.
They were done top point guard Stephen Curry, but head coach Steve Kerr wasn’t game for excuses and called their effort embarrassing.
As someone who vouched for them, I concur.
The defeat dropped me to 65-54-2 on the year with my NBA picks. It’s still been a respectable run, but it looks like today could be my last stop in this spot for some time.
The plan is to cap things off on a high note and I don’t know if I can pass up on the crazy value associated with tonight’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers.
Both of these teams have a lot to play for and enter tonight ablaze. Cleveland has morphed into a very tough team with five straight wins and a 9-1 run over their last 10 games, while the Sixers have literally won each of their last 12 contests.
Philly earns the label of favorite by Vegas tonight (-3.5 point favorites at 5Dimes), but it’s the Cavs who may end up offering too much value to pass up.
Which way should bettors lean in possibly the top game of tonight’s loaded 10-game slate? Let’s dig in to find out:
The Sixers might be a tough team to bet against for some. Obviously they are on an insane tear and wagering against teams on hot streaks feels dicey.
It could be even tougher given the fact that Philly is at home. Not only have the Sixers been a great straight up bet on their home floor (27-11!), but they’re also a blistering 26-7 when favored at home.
The ATS data doesn’t hurt Philly, either. The Sixers have been one of the best teams against the spread (46-30-2) all year and are the best team in the NBA (26-11) against the spread when playing at home.
The production is pretty similar when the Sixers are favored ATS (23-10) in that spot and that’s good for second best in the league.
On the other side, the Cavs don’t normally excite bettors. Cleveland is a middling 20-19 on the road and they have not been impressive ATS.
The Cavs (30-48-1) have been one of the worst teams against the spread in general this year and that hasn’t improved (16-23) when they leave Quicken Loans Arena.
The one caveat? Cleveland seemingly doesn’t like it when Vegas doubts them.
The Cavs own the NBA’s best road record ATS (10-3) and they just so happen to be playing their best ball of the year right now.
In addition, George Hill took a break last night and could be back for this game, while the Sixers are still down their ace in the hole, Joel Embiid.
I think you absolutely have to look at how the Cavs have improved and the fact that they seem to step up their game as road dogs. But the fact that Cleveland gets a crack at the Sixers sans their best player is what makes them a compelling wager tonight.
Philly still has Ben Simmons and a slew of lethal outside shooters. They can push the pace and emerge as victors in a shootout, too, while they already won one meeting at the beginning of March.
The 76ers are red hot, at home and have proven they can beat the Cavs. However, Cleveland didn’t have Kevin Love for that game and Embiid was healthy at the time.
There’s nothing to be taken away from what Philly has been accomplishing. They’re on a sick tear, they’re nasty at home and simply put, they’re a tough out.
However, they’re not the same defensive force without Embiid in the paint and Cleveland still has to put the finishing touches on securing the Central Division and locking down the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
You don’t even need to think about all of that yet. Really, you’re just taking the value and betting the Cavs keep it close. A +3.5 point spread is thick enough to get me to pounce here, while the Cavs at +150 is extremely tempting.
I don’t want to fully bet against Philly in this spot, but I like a close game and a chance at the upset is quite possible. Give me the Cavs with the points.
$100 stake could win.........