Celtics vs Bucks – NBA Pick for April 26th

by Rick Rockwell
on April 26, 2018

Game 6 between the Celtics and the Bucks heads back to Milwaukee where the Celtics look to close out the series and the Bucks hope to protect their home court. Boston holds a 3-2 advantage thanks to their 92-87 win in Game 5 where they were up by as much as 16 points in the 4th quarter before Milwaukee stormed back. The Celtics were able to hold off the Bucks and take the lead in this series.

Neither team shot particularly well in Game 5 as the Celtics finished the game at 42% shooting from the floor and the Bucks finished at 36.8%. Boston also shot only 32.3% from the 3-point line, while the Bucks shot 27.3%. Both teams also underperformed from the free throw line as the Celtics went 24-of-32 and the Bucks went 14-of-20. So, it’s no surprise that these teams combined for only 179 points in Game 5.

That will change tonight in Game 6 as the Bucks are averaging 110 ppg at home in this series, while the Celtics are averaging 97 ppg on the road in this series. For the season, Milwaukee averaged 106.9 ppg at home and gave up 105.4 ppg at home. The Celtics averaged 102.4 ppg on the road and gave up 100.7 ppg on the road for the season.

I expect both teams to hit the century mark in tonight’s game with Milwaukee coming out ahead in this contest. Each team has won on their home court in this series and I expect it to continue for Game 6. Look for Giannis Antetokounmpo to come out more aggressive at home and lead the Bucks. He had a series low 16 points in Game 5 and vows to play better tonight. For the series, The Greek Freak is averaging 25.4 ppg, 8.8 rebounds per game and 7.0 assists per game. He almost had a triple double in Game 5, but fell one assist short. Giannis is averaging 23 ppg at home in the series.

The stellar play of Khris Middleton has been the bright sport for Milwaukee in the playoffs. Middleton led the Bucks in scoring for Game 5 with 23 points. He’s averaging 25 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 3.6 apg in the series. He’s also averaging 23 ppg at home.

For the Bucks to win at home in Game 6, they need their top duo to dictate the game, to cut down on turnovers, and to improve their free throw shooting as they’re 68-for-100 in the series. Also, Milwaukee can’t come out and score only 15 points in the first quarter like they did last game.

In the first 2 games at home, the Bucks stormed out to a 27-12 lead after the 1st quarter in Game 3 and a 24-17 lead after the 1st quarter in Game 4. I expect them to do the same tonight in Game 6 and keep their foot on the gas pedal all night long as they feed off their crowd’s energy.

For Boston, they need to slow down the pace like in Game 5 and play better basketball on the road than they did in Game 3 and 4. Boston’s Al Horford has been the steady hand for the Celtics as he’s averaging 18.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 3.2 apg for the series. His rebounding and points against the Bucks are above his season averages. However, Horford had his two lowest outputs of the series in Milwaukee for Games 3 and 4. So, if Boston wants to win tonight then they will need Horford to lead the charge like he did in Game 5 when he finished with 22 points and 14 rebounds.

The Over is 4-1 in this series and 3-0 when Milwaukee trails in the series. For the Bucks, the Over is 19-3 in their last 22 home games, 9-2 in home games during the month of April, and 16-7 against Atlantic opponents. For Boston, the Over is 8-1 in their last 9 games, 9-2 during the month of April and 21-13 during the second half of the season.

I like the Over in this game as both teams will get back to scoring more points. The Bucks have shot over 50% for the first 4 games and I expect them to get back to that tonight.

Pick: Over 200.5
-105

$100 Stake Could Win...

$195
MONEYLINE
DECIMAL
FRACTIONAL
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