Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Pick – Detroit (+141)
The NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule opens up with an NFC North clash between the hosting Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears. Detroit is a traditional home for Thanksgiving Day action in the NFL and this year the Lions will be trying to pick up their first win of the season in the game.
Reporter: "With this your team's probably last time in primetime this year, what sort of opportunity is there to send sort of a statement?"
Lions coach Dan Campbell: "Are you telling me they're not going to flex us later?"
Chicago is trying to pick itself off the mat after a tough loss against Baltimore in the final moments of their last game. The action kicks off at 12:30 PM Eastern Time on Thursday afternoon from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.
Although it doesn’t often get publicized as much as other matchups, few NFL series go back as far as the Lions and Bears. They first met up all the way back in 1930, and they’ve met every year since, usually twice a season. The Bears lead the series with 103 wins to Detroit’s 75, and there have been five ties.
The Bears actually snuck out to a 3-2 record, even as head coach Matt Nagy was much maligned for his handling of rookie quarterback Justin Fields. As the schedule has toughened, the Bears have folded, losing five games in a row. Fields was hurt last week, leaving veteran Andy Dalton at the quarterback position for this one.
The Lions remain the last team in the league still looking for their first victory of the year. At least they were able to squeak out a tie two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. What’s been frustrating for first-year head coach is how close they have come on occasion, with three of their losses by three points or less.
Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game
Despite the fact that there has been uncertain at the quarterback position for both teams during the week, the spread here has remained relatively constant. It opened up with Chicago as a three-point favorite. After spending time at 3 1/2 points, it dropped back down to 3.
The over/under has seen a bit more movement. And it’s probably not too surprising considering that there could be two backup quarterbacks starting that the line has dropped. After beginning the week at 43, it’s all the way down to 41, which is low for an NFL contest.
Head to Head Betting Trends
Chicago has defeated the Lions in six of the last seven games these two teams have met
The Bears have also done well against the stretch in that span, covering the spread in five of those seven games
The Lions haven’t defeated the Bears at home since back in the 2017 season
The road team has won four of the last six games played in this series
Before these two teams played in October and the line went under in a 24-14 Bears win, the over had been the right bet in this series the previous three games
Chicago Bears Betting Trends
The Bears have won only one of the five games that they’ve played this season
In their current five-game losing streak, Chicago has covered the spread only once
In their last 11 games in the NFL North, Chicago has covered the spread only 27 percent of the time
Chicago has covered the spread only 33 percent of the time when playing as a favorite over the past three seasons
The Bears have covered the spread just 27 percent of the time in games played in November since the start of the 2019 season
They’ve had issues pulling themselves out of bad streaks, as they’ve covered the spread only 25 percent of the time over the last two years in games following two at least two losses in a row
The Bears have covered the spread only 38 percent of the time since 2019 when playing on the road
Detroit Lions Betting Trends
Although the Lions have the worst record in the NFL at 0-9-1, they have a winning record against the spread (6-4)
The Lions have been a good under bet this season, as seven of their ten games have gone under the projected point spread
In the Lions last nine NFC North division games, the over has been the correct bet six times
As a home underdog of three points or less over the past three season, the Lions have covered the spread just 29 percent of the time
Detroit has struggled in November over the past three seasons, covering the spread in 33 percent of their games played that month
The Lions have covered the spread only 37 percent of the time when playing a team with a losing record over the past three seasons
Detroit have covered the spread 45 percent of their home games since 2019
Although they’ve won just one of their last 15 games against the NFC North, Detroit has covered the spread to a record of 8-7 in those games
Free Bet and Game Prediction:
When these two teams played back at the start of October, the Bears pounded the Lions with their running game. David Montgomery’s 106 yards and two touchdowns led a 189-yard attack on the soft middle of the Lions defense. And that’s been a recurrent theme for Detroit, as they’ve yielded more rushing yards per game than all but one NFL team.
The Bears will likely try to do the same in this one. But without Justin Fields in the lineup, the Lions linebackers and safeties will have less of a worry about a read-option. Still, Detroit just doesn’t seem like they can stand up all game long against a sustained Bears running attack.
If they can force the Bears to pass, Andy Dalton isn’t the most feared guy under center. It also should help Detroit that the Bears are thin at receiver, with Allen Robinson banged up and Darnell Mooney banged up. But Detroit needs to keep the game script in a place where the Bears can’t just tee off and run every down.
Ayye @ChicagoBears you see how New England catered the offense to Mac Jones, you see how Philly catered the offense to Jalen Hurts, why can't you do the same? You see how Philly is gonna run it down your throat? Why not do the same with Monty and Herbert? Just asking.
That could be difficult if Tim Boyle is at quarterback. The Detroit second-stringer is coming off a game where he threw for under 80 yards against Cleveland. By contrast, started Jared Goff had one of his best games of the season against Chicago earlier in the year, throwing for 299 yards and two scored.
Detroit has enjoyed success the last two weeks battering away with D’Andre Swift. He has carried for 130 and 136 yards in his last two games as Detroit has relied on him heavily. The Bears defense is a shadow of what it was earlier in the season, with injuries taking away many of their best performers.
If ever there was a week where betting on the Lions could take advantage, it feels like this is it. It will help if Goff can rally and get in the lineup, but even if not, the running game should be able to match Chicago blow for blow. The winless streak ends here as the Lions pull off the surprise.
Moneylines: Chicago Bears -161, Detroit Lions +141
Spread: Chicago Bears -3 (-113), Detroit Lions +3 (-107)
Over/Under: 41 (Over -115, Under -105)
Prediction: Detroit Lions 17, Chicago Bears
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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