Week 4’s Monday Night Football matchup features two AFC West rivals battling it out for first place in the division. The undefeated, high scoring Chiefs will head out to Denver with the hopes of continuing their explosive success. The Broncos look for a home field advantage and some defensive pressure to help slow down the Chiefs’ impressive offense. Kickoff inside Sports Authority Field at Mile High is at 8:15 PM ET.
|Betting Data History||Kansas City Chiefs||Denver Broncos|
|2018 Home record||1-0||2-0|
|2018 Away record||2-0||0-1|
|2018 ATS Home||1-0||0-1-1|
|2018 ATS Away||2-0||0-1|
|2018 O/U Home||1-0||1-1|
|2018 O/U Away||2-0||0-1|
Here’s an AFC West rivalry that will surely provide fireworks and maybe a few punches on Monday Night Football this week. After 116 games against each other since 1960, these two teams don’t like each other at all. For the series, the Chiefs hold a 61-55 record. Kansas City has won 5 straight games against the Broncos and they’ve also won the last 3 games in Denver.
Denver (2-1) has looked better this season than what some fans and pundits thought they would look like. Keenum has helped the offense take a step forward and it’s seen in their average of 392 total ypg. Keenum has also provided the offense with a leadership that it’s missed since Peyton Manning retired. Can the Broncos pull off the upset over the Chiefs on MNF?
Kansas City (3-0) looks like the best team in the AFC after 3 weeks. They lead the NFL with 39.3 ppg and appear to be unstoppable on offense. Second year QB Patrick Mahomes has been tearing up the record books with 13 TD passes in the first 3 games of the season. However, playing at Mile High in Denver can be a bit tricky. Will Mahomes in this offense keep up their high scoring or will they succumb to the change in elevation and an improved Broncos team?
The spread currently sits at -4.5 for the Chiefs, but it has seen some interesting movement since the opening. Depending on which sportsbook you use, the spread shifted from 4.5 to 5 and back down. A few other betting sites had the spread at -4 for the Chiefs, but then saw it rise to 5.5 points before coming down to 5. Since we’re taking the Chiefs spread, it’s important to shop for lines and get the smallest spread you can find. The Over/Under opened at 55 points and has come down to 54.5 total points.
Can the Chiefs keep up their high scoring this week? In short, I believe they can. The Broncos are allowing 365.3 total ypg and 23.3 ppg. Keep in mind, those numbers are against teams like the Ravens Raiders and Seahawks. None of those teams have an offense like the Chiefs.
Furthermore, the Broncos are giving up 287.7 passing ypg, which is right near Mahomes’ average of 298.7 ypg. The Chiefs average 402 total ypg and will look to jump all over the Broncos as quickly as possible. In their first 3 games, the Chiefs have scored at least 14 points in the opening quarter for each contest. If they can do that to Denver on Monday then this will be a tough game for the Broncos to win.
The one major concern with the Chiefs is their defense that gives up 30.7 ppg and 487 total ypg. These numbers are alarming, but it should be noted that they usually come late in the game after the team is already up big. But, if Denver can find a way to score early, they could make this a tight ball game and possibly pull off the upset at home on Monday night.
Denver is 1-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 points to 9.5 points, 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus divisional foes, 3-9 ATS against teams with a winning record, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Chiefs, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, 11-2 ATS and 12-1 SU against AFC West foes, and 3-0 ATS this season.
I like the Chiefs to win this game by a touchdown or more and to cover the spread. The -110 odds for KC’s spread is also appealing considering how well the Chiefs have played in 2018 and throughout the recent years against the Broncos.
KC tight end Travis Kelce has had big games against Denver including 133 yards last year and 160 yards in 2016. The Broncos continue to struggle with defending elite tight ends, so watch out for Kelce to put up big numbers on Monday night.
KC running back Hunt might have tough sledding running the ball against a Broncos defense allowing only 77.7 rushing ypg, but he could definitely do a lot of damage catching passes out of the backfield. Tyreke hill is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and Sammy Watkins is really thriving as the 4th option in this offense. Denver just doesn’t have enough defenders to shut down these weapons.
Take the Chiefs to cover the spread as Denver won’t be able to stop this explosive offense.
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