Chiefs vs Patriots – NFL Pick for Sunday, October 14th
Week 6 of the NFL regular season features a heavyweight showdown between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC’s perennial champion the New England Patriots. The Chiefs embarrassed the Patriots last year on their home turf to start the 2017 season. Can Kansas City do it again or will the Patriots get revenge for their worst loss at home in recent memory? Kickoff inside Gillette Stadium is at 8:20 PM ET.
|Betting Data||Kansas City Chiefs||New England Patriots|
|Current S/U record||5-0||3-2|
|2018 ATS Home||2-0||3-0|
|2018 ATS Away||3-0||0-2|
|2018 O/U Home||1-1||1-2|
|2018 O/U Away||2-1||1-1|
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots AFC Game Preview
The Chiefs and the Patriots have had some memorable games over the last few years. In total, they’ve played against each other 35 times and KC has the all-time advantage with an 18-14-3 record. The teams have split the last 6 games with 3 wins apiece, dating back to 2005. However, the Chiefs have taken 2 of the last 3.
Kansas City (5-0) is coming off an impressive beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs put up 30 points on the league’s top defense and basically held the Jaguars to single digit points until late in the game. However, the Patriots are a completely different team and the Chiefs are going to have to outscore them to win. And, that’s just the way KC likes it.
New England (3-2) has won two straight games after their embarrassing loss to the Lions in Week 3. The Patriots are going to play their 3rd straight home game as the Chiefs come to town. New England put up 38 points in each of the last two games and looks to continue that scoring trend against a terrible Chiefs defense. Can New England hand Kansas City their first loss of the season?
The Patriots opened as a 3.5 point favorite with the majority of sportsbooks. Currently, the line remains unchanged. The Over/Under opened at 58 points with many betting sites and bounced around before settling at the current total of 59 points.
Free NFL Spread Bet and Game Prediction: KC Chiefs +3.5
Despite being undefeated and looking like the best team in the NFL, the Chiefs come into this game as the underdog. I could understand maybe a point or two, but a 3.5 point underdog is rather shocking. Kansas City puts up 35 ppg compared to the Patriots’ 26.6 ppg. And, that’s after New England has scored 38 ppg over the last two weekends.
The Patriots have not faced an offense even close to the caliber of the Chiefs. The Colts have no running game, Miami has no running game, Detroit has no running game, Jacksonville has no passing game and the Texans just started to find themselves last weekend. The Chiefs have balance and weapons all over the field on offense. KC averages 418.2 ypg with 302.6 coming through the air and 115.6 coming on the ground. KC’s Mahomes is the early favorite to win this year’s NFL MVP, which is ironic because he’s going up against last year’s MVP in Tom Brady. Could this be a passing of the torch?
The Patriots are a different team now that they have Julian Edelman back. He brings a balance to the passing game that they were sorely lacking. Additionally, New England has found more balance on offense with Sony Michel becoming the lead running back. Let’s also not forget that the Patriots still have Gronk and a dynamic threat in Josh Gordon who’s coming along nicely.
This game should be all about scoring and that’s what most fans prefer. The two teams combine for 61 ppg and New England is starting to find their rhythm. Last week against the Colts, the Patriots put up 438 total yards, which is more than their season average of 364.8 ypg. That’s in large part due to Edelman back and that the Colts were unable to sustain drives and put points on the board.
This week, the Patriots will be the team trying to keep scoring pace with their opponent. It’s possible that New England hangs in a shootout, but I don’t see them winning by more than a field goal.
The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against the Chiefs. Kansas city is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with winning home records, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-0 ATS this season, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 AFC games, 7-2 ATS and 7-2 SU in their last 9 games as an Underdog.
I expect the Chiefs to put up at least 30 points on the Patriots this weekend and New England to play catch-up all game long. However, I believe this game will come down to New England with the ball on the last drive and Brady leading the Patriots to a last second victory. The Patriots are 19-4 SU at home and 28-4 SU against the AFC over the last 3 years. The Chiefs give up 479.2 total ypg on defense and I see that coming back to finally cost them a win.
Take the Chiefs to cover the 3.5 point spread, but the Patriots to win the game.
Chiefs vs Patriots Betting Recap:
- Oddsmaker: BetOnline
- Money lines: Chiefs (+155) and Patriots (-175)
- Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 59 total points (-115)
- Prediction: New England 35 – Kansas City 34
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