Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Pick and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on October 19, 2018

Minute Read

Week 7’s Sunday Night Football game features two of the conference’s division leaders as the Cincinnati Bengals head out on the road to play against the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams lost last weekend due to last second scores. Which team will rebound from their loss and gain a crucial conference victory? Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 8:20 PM ET.

Bengals vs Chiefs Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Betting Data Cincinnati Bengals Kansas City Chiefs
Current S/U record 4-2 5-1
2018 Home 2-1 2-0
2018 Away 2-1 3-1
2018 ATS 4-2 6-0
2018 ATS Home 2-1 2-0
2018 ATS Away 2-1 4-0
2018 O/U 4-2 4-2
2018 O/U Home 1-2 1-1
2018 O/U Away 3-0 3-1

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Preview

The Bengals and the Chiefs have played against each other 28 times. Over that span, the Bengals have posted a 15-13 record. The Bengals have won 4 straight games over KC including their last trip to Arrowhead in 2012.

The Bengals (4-2) played a solid game last weekend against the Steelers and were in a position to win the game, but gave up a late score and ended up losing to their division rivals. This weekend, the Bengals hope to go into a tough environment and get a huge win.

The Chiefs (5-1) came out on the wrong end of a shootout against the Patriots last weekend. However, their young QB Mahomes proved he has what it takes to be a top-tier QB in the league. In fact, the GOAT Tom Brady made it a point to practically sprint across the field after the game to talk to Mahomes. This weekend, the Chiefs will look to bounce back from their only loss on the season and get a big home win.

Depending on the sportsbook, the Chiefs opened up as a -5.5 to -6 point favorite. However, the line has moved up and down throughout the week and seen a high of -7 before settling back at -6 points. The Over/Under was a bit milder in movement as most betting sites opened at 58.5 before settling at 58 total points.

Free NFL Spread Bet and Game Prediction: KC Chiefs -6

On the season, the Chiefs are already 2-0 at home and have looked unbeatable at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bengals are 2-1 on the road and have played tough football all season long. Unfortunately, they’re playing the best offense in the conference, on the road, in a difficult environment. The thing that should concern Bengals fans and supporters the most, is their secondary.

On the season, the Bengals are giving up 420.2 total ypg and 26.3 ppg. The alarming stat in all of this is that Cincy is giving up 303 passing yards per game and is now going up against an offense that’s averaging 310.8 passing ypg. Mahomes is having an MVP season with 1,865 yards, 18 TDs, and 4 INTs so far. Playing at home against a weak passing defense definitely bodes well for Mahomes and his weapons. One player who should also benefit from this matchup is Tyreke Hill.

At times, Hill looks like the most difficult player in the league to guard. In his game against the Patriots last weekend, Hill had 7 receptions for 142 yards and 3 TDs. On the season, Tyreke has 567 yards and 6 TD catches. He also has a punt return touchdown as well. I expect the Chiefs to put up another 30+ points this weekend and the Bengals desperately trying to keep pace.

Fortunately for Cincy, they’re going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs allow 484 total ypg, 357 passing ypg, 127.8 ypg, and 28.7 points per game. So, the Bengals do have a chance to put up some big numbers. But, will it be enough to win the game?

For Cincy to have a realistic shot at winning, they need to keep the Chiefs offense off the field and the only way to do that is by running the ball. With Joe Mixon back and playing well, the Bengals do have a capable RB who can take over a game. Unfortunately, the Cincy rushing attack is only averaging 89.8 rushing ypg, which is near the bottom of the league. I do believe that Cincy will establish a running game this weekend, but I don’t see it being enough to hang with the Chiefs who could score every time they touch the ball.

The Bengals are 4-7 ATS coming off a division game, 4-6 ATS in their last 10 October games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games during the Weeks of 5 through 9, 7-13 SU as an Underdog, and 1-6 SU as an Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS this year, 7-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 AFC games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 October games, 10-5 ATS when playing teams with winning records, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

I expect the Chiefs to put their foot on the gas pedal and not let up until late in the game. Look for the Chiefs to get out to a big lead before the Bengals score some garbage time points to close the gap. KC won’t be in any threat of losing the game. There’s not a lot of betting value in the Chiefs moneyline of -250, which is why I’m taking the spread. KC has won by an average of 12.5 ppg at home this season and I see them easily winning by a TD in this one.

Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Bengals (+210) and Chiefs (-250)
  • Spread: Chiefs -6 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 58 total points (-105)
  • Prediction: Chiefs 35 – Bengals 28
Pick: Chiefs -6

$100 stake could win...

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