A few days ago I said my short-term goal was to get to 50 wins before I got to 40 losses. I enter Friday night with a chance to pull that off. That’s largely due to the Boston Celtics pulling out a big road win last night and handing me my fourth correct pick in a row.
Things tend to even out with NBA betting. I endured a brutal five-game drought less than a week ago and I’ve turned things around with this hot run. Hopefully, I can completely match it with another win tonight, while also reaching the 50-win plateau in the process.
There will be no shortage of NBA games to pick from tonight, that’s for sure. Friday produces a huge nine-game betting slate and several of the games give bettors something to think about. After all, of the nine games, just one opened with a line greater than -6.5.
Lines could still shift throughout the day, but for the moment, there is a lot of value to be had. One interesting spot resides in Detroit, where the Pistons host the Los Angeles Clippers.
One has to think Blake Griffin will be out for blood in this one. He’s helped the Pistons go on quite the tear (4-0 under his watch) and Detroit is now one game away from the NBA playoffs.
There is also the revenge factor, too. Griffin was dealt by the Clippers just weeks ago despite signing a massive contract this past summer. He will undoubtedly be eager to pay his old team back with a big home win.
Griffin isn’t the only vengeful player tonight, however. Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley were also in that deal (went to L.A.) and will be looking to top their former squad
It’s an interesting situation that’s compounded even more by the fact that both of these teams have playoff aspirations.
Does that mean bettors should back Griffin and the home team, ride with the Clips or target the Total? Let’s break this game down further to find out:
I have to admit, Blake Griffin’s undeniable pursuit of vengeance here has me pretty locked into the Pistons. Aside from his revenge, though, I just love the pricing for a surging team on their home floor in a game they’re fully equipped to win.
Detroit offers solid value as straight up bets (-165 at Bovada) and their best price is an even more attractive -150 at 5Dimes. They’re also looking at a palatable spread, as they just need to win by five to convert this one for bettors.
The Pistons have been an easy team to trust lately. Griffin has added dynamic playmaking, rebounding and interior scoring. He’s also brought an invaluable swagger to this team, while his sheer presence has opened things up greatly for big man Andre Drummond.
Drummond was always a force, but with defenses having to worry about another explosive interior threat, he’s playing with even more confidence in the post.
DeAndre Jordan can potentially limit the impact of one of these guys, but the Pistons don’t have another big body that can slow down the other. Jordan also isn’t an offensive force, which is something Griffin and Drummond could easily exploit.
The Clippers are still a threat here, of course. Lou Williams has enjoyed a career season, Tobias Harris has proven to be a dangerous outside shooter and a healthy Danilo Gallinari rounds out an underrated bunch.
Los Angeles can put up points, but doing so on the road (13-15) is another matter. Even worse, the Clips have to go into Detroit, where the Pistons tend to batten down the hatches and get wins (18-10).
Both of these teams have respectable numbers against the spread, but there isn’t anything overly convincing either way. The Pistons have not been impressive ATS as the home favorite, but the Clippers are also just 8-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
The big thing I’m looking at here is Detroit’s tendency to convert wins when favored at home. The Pistons are a staggering 15-6 in those situations. Add an angry Blake Griffin to the mix, and I think Detroit stays perfect under their new leader.
Just remember to shop for lines. My base odds I used today are from Bovada, but they don’t have the best straight up price for the Pistons. So far that’s at 5Dimes (-150), so that’s where I’ll roll tonight.
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