Colorado vs USC – NCAA Football Pick for October 13th

by Rick Rockwell
on October 9, 2018
6

Minute Read

The #19 ranked Colorado Buffaloes will hit the road on Saturday to take on the USC Trojans in a huge game for the Buffaloes. Currently, Colorado is undefeated on the season and looking to continue their rise through the Top 25 rankings. The Trojans are having a down year, but are still dangerous enough to take out Colorado at home. Kickoff inside Memorial Stadium is at 10:30 PM ET.

Betting Data Colorado Buffaloes USC Trojans
Current S/U record 5-0 3-2
2018 Home 3-0 2-0
2018 Away 2-0 1-2
2018 ATS 4-1 1-4
2018 ATS Home 2-1 0-2
2018 ATS Away 2-0 1-2
2018 O/U 1-4 3-2
2018 O/U Home 1-2 2-0
2018 O/U Away 0-2 1-2

Colorado Buffaloes vs USC Trojans Pac-12 Game Preview

The Trojans have owned this head-to-head series with an all-time record of 12-0. These two teams have played 7 times in the last 8 years and the Trojans have easily won all 7 games except for a 21-17 victory in LA two years ago. Last year, the Trojans won 38-24 at Colorado.

The Buffaloes (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) come into this game as a 7 point underdog despite being undefeated on the season. Last weekend, Colorado earned a tough victory over ASU 28-21, which was their second conference win in a row. Two weeks ago, Colorado easily defeated UCLA 38-16. Can the Buffaloes bring their high octane offense into So-Cal and pull off a huge win?

USC (3-2, 2-1 Pac-12) squeaked out a win over Arizona two weekends ago by a score or 24-20. It was their second straight conference win as they also beat WSU 39-36 three weeks ago. USC has appeared strong in games against inferior opponents, but have looked awful against good teams like Stanford and Texas. However, the Trojans do have the luxury of coming off a Bye Week. Can USC buck that trend this weekend and hand Colorado their first loss of the season?

The spread opened with Colorado getting 7 points. At most betting sites, the spread went as high as 7.5 points for Colorado before coming back down to 7. The Over/Under opened at 55.5 points at many sportsbooks, but has gone as high as 58 before settling at the current 57 total points.

Free Pac-12 Spread Bet and Game Prediction

Despite USC being in a down year, it’s easy to see why they are the favorite in this game. Colorado hasn’t played against any real challengers other than ASU last weekend. The Trojans have played a tougher schedule, but lost their games against good teams. However, they have dominated this head-to-head series all-time.

For Colorado to win, they’re going to need to get their offense going and try to score more than the 26.2 ppg that USC is allowing. The Trojans are also allowing 381.2 total yards per game, which bodes well for Colorado who averages 490.6 ypg. It should be pointed out that Colorado tallied 494 total yards against a good ASU defense. So, they’re not just doing it against cupcake teams. With that said, they need to prove it on the road this weekend.

The Trojans, despite a 3-2 record, could move to first place in the Pac-12 South division with a win this weekend. Therefore, they have a lot to gain and really nothing to lose. However, Colorado has everything to gain and everything to lose, which makes them a more desperate team in my opinion.

Coming into this matchup, Colorado QB Steven Montez has outplayed his counterpart JT Daniels of USC. Montez has 1,420 passing yards and 11 passing TDs with just 2 INTs on the year. Daniels has 1,257 passing yards, 4 TDs and 3 INTs in 5 games so far. Additionally, Colorado has the better running back and wide receiver statistically.

As a team, USC gives up 163.2 rushing yards per game and Colorado averages 197.6 rushing ypg. The Buffaloes also average 293 passing ypg and USC allows 218 passing ypg. It’s almost a pick your poison situation for USC this weekend. They will have to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball to realistically beat the Buffaloes.

The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS this year, 7-4 ATS in their last 11 road games, 2-0 ATS in Pac-12 play, 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games during October, 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in grass games this year, 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games during Weeks 5 through 9, and 8-4 SU after winning 2 or more games in a row.

The Trojans are 1-4 ATS on the year, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 overall games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-10 ATS when playing against winning teams, and 1-3 ATS following a Bye Week.

Until USC beats a good team, I can’t take them to cover the spread. I believe Colorado has looked better this season and has shown more potential than USC so far. Additionally, QB Montez has looked superior to USC’s JT Daniels this year. With an explosive offense, the inconsistent Trojans defense will have troubles on Saturday.

A win this weekend will essentially give the Buffaloes a 2 game lead in the South division over the Trojans. I see the Buffaloes finally getting over the USC hump on Saturday and covering the spread. If you feel like taking a risk, then look at betting on Colorado’s moneyline of +230. They have a realistic chance at knocking off the Trojans this Saturday.

Colorado vs USC Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Colorado (+230) and USC (-275)
  • Spread: USC -7 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 57 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Colorado 30 – USC 27
Pick: Colorado +7
-115

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