Colts vs Seahawks – NFL Pick for Sunday, October 1st

by Jason Armstrong
on October 1, 2017

The Indianapolis Colts picked up their first win of the season last week against the Cleveland Browns 31-28. This week things are going to get much tougher as they travel to Seattle to play against the Seahawks and that twelfth man home crowd. The Seahawks come into this one with the same 1-2 record as Indy, as they lost on the road in Tennessee 27-33, last week. This line opened at Seattle -13.5 points and has come down slightly as the consensus line now is Hawks -13. The over/under game total is 41.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM PST from Century Link Field in Seattle, Washington.

I have been very leery of the Seattle Seahawks this season. They came into the year as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and I just can’t seem to figure out why. This is a team that has been good over the past several seasons with a dominant defense and a power running game, and they don’t have either of those things this year. The defense is still decent, but this isn’t the Legion of Boom that took the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. And that power running game? Yeah, not so much.

Indianapolis Colts
Seattle Seahawks
Total: 41.5

They came into the season with Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and C.J. Prosise all fighting for carries in a crowded backfield. They have quickly moved on from all of those options and are now starting 7th round rookie running back Chris Carson. Carson has been serviceable with a 4.5 YPC average, but he hasn’t scored a TD yet this year and isn’t the bruising Marshawn Lynch type running back that this offense was built around. Russell Wilson has spent the entire season running for his life as the pass rush doesn’t have to worry about stopping the run and Wilson has been less than his stellar self as he just tries to stay standing on most snaps.

The Seahawks lost a tough game against the Packers on the road in week one at Lambeau Field, and the offense sputtered and failed to score a touchdown. The running game was nonexistent, and Wilson got sacked three times and threw for only 158 yards. It was a really ugly start to the season. In week two the Hawks had what should have been a very cushy matchup at home against the San Francisco 49ers. The offense failed to impress yet again as they could only muster 12 points in a 12-9 win. 12-9, against what might be the worst team in the NFL this year. It wasn’t a performance that made Seattle fans think they had snapped out of their funk. That brings us to last week and their loss in Tennessee. It was another weak offensive showing for Seattle. The scoreboard showed they scored 27 points which is better than they had produced in the season’s first two weeks. However, they entered the 4th quarter trailing 30-14, and their two late touchdowns came in what was essentially garbage time as the Titans were just trying to run out the clock. So yeah, they moved the ball a little bit in the fourth quarter, but this game doesn’t make me think that this Seattle offense isn’t secretly really bad.

Look, this Indianapolis Colts team is a bad one. I am not even going to try and argue the other side of that. They got blown completely out in week one against the Rams and lost to an Arizona Cardinals team that has zero offense now that David Johnson is out for most of the season in week two. They did pick up a win last week, but it was against the Cleveland Browns. So yeah, the Colts stink. The rotting corpse of Frank Gore is just sad to watch at this point, he is averaging a career-worst 2.3 YPC and has gained 57 yards on the season, with 21 of those coming in one run.

This Colts offense looks significantly better with Jacoby Brissett at QB rather than Scott Tolzien, and I liked that Brissett fed the ball to T.Y Hilton last week. Hilton is lightning fast, and really the only offensive weapon the Colts have until Andrew Luck gets back on the field, so they need to be getting the ball in his hands as much as possible. That being said I don’t have high hopes for this Colts team, this week or for the rest of the season. It’s looking more and more like we won’t see Luck for any foreseeable future and without him, this is a four or five-win team at best.

This game boils down to the fact that I don’t think the Seattle Seahawks should be close to two touchdown favorites against anyone at this point. Their offense is stuck in the mud, and with a game total of just 41 points, they would basically have to shut the Colts out on Sunday to cover the 13 points. I just don’t see that happening. I expect, as do the books, for this game to be a low-scoring affair. And 13 points is a LOT in a game where points are going to be hard to get. Seattle is too well coached to completely blow this one and lose at home but don’t be surprised if the Colts find themselves in the lead at some point in this one. I figure this ends up at about a 20-13 Seattle victory with the Colts easily covering the 13 points. Give me those points on Sunday night in Seattle!

The Bet: Indianapolis Colts +13 points
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