D-backs vs. Giants MLB Pick – August 11, 2021

By in MLB on
7 Minute Read
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
D-backs vs. Giants Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-135)
BetUS Logo

We have another busy MLB schedule on deck tonight and despite fewer evening games on the docket we’ll go out west for one of those nightcaps with a D-backs vs. Giants MLB Pick from Oracle Park in San Francisco!

D-backs vs. Giants Betting Odds

Odds Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants
Moneyline Odds +235 -285
Runline Odds +1.5 (+115) -1.5 (-135)
Over/Under Odds Over 7.5 (-115) Under 7.5 (-105)

D-backs

It’s likely to be a long next seven weeks for a D-backs club that currently sits as the favorite to pick first overall by top online sportsbooks in the 2022 MLB draft by way of the worst record in Major League Baseball at 35-79 and with a run differential of -179.

They’ll look to snap a three-game losing streak – all on the road – behind the right arm of Merrill Kelly who has largely been good here in the 2021 season for a D-backs club that hasn’t been able to get much in terms of pitching this season.

Kelly will enter this one sporting a 4.13 ERA/3.78 FIP on the season while his 4.08 xERA, 4.11 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA more or less agree with that solid work across 23 starts and 137.1 frames so far this season.

Like his team in general, however, Kelly’s struggles have come on the road where the numbers take a noticeable dive.

Outside of Chase Field, Kelly sports a 5.10 ERA/4.74 FIP while allowing 1.65 HR/9 compared to just 0.58 HR/9 at home. His home park at Chase Field can act as a launching pad when the roof is opened but Kelly has managed to deal at home and keep home runs in check in a big way.

A great example of his home/road splits this season can be described by his work against this Giants team this season.

In three home starts with the Giants, Kelly has combined to hurl 21 innings of five-run ball including eight shutout innings his last time out. However, in his lone start in San Fran, Kelly was limited to just three innings while allowing four earned runs.

We’ll see if he can buck the splits trend in this one tonight.

Beleaguered Bats

The D-backs haven’t received much in terms of pitching but their offense hasn’t exactly been there to pick up the slack. In fact, they’ve been at their worst when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road.

For the season, the D-backs sit 26th with a .299 wOBA and 28th with a .142 ISO, so they’re certainly one of the lighter-hitting clubs in the league.

However, against right-handed pitching they slip to a .291 wOBA which puts them 29th in the league while their .133 ISO off righties puts them 29th as well, just a couple points above the last-place Pirates (.131).

As for the work on the road, it gets even worse to a .286 wOBA that’s tied with the Cubs for 26th in baseball while their .138 ISO outside of Chase Field sits 27th.

While the bats can handle themselves well against left-handed pitching, offensive output has certainly been a struggle against righties, especially on the road.

They actually scored seven last night despite taking the loss, but they’ve still averaged just 3.6 runs per game over their last 10.

Unreliable Relief

Even if the D-backs are able to generate some offense their bullpen has ensured that no wins come easy for this club.

That group will enter tonight’s contest ranked 29th with a 5.41 ERA on the season, only one point ahead of the last-place Rockies and their 5.42 mark. Their 4.86 FIP and 4.83 xFIP are close to the worst in the league as well, so there’s no mistake here.

While walks have been kept in check with a 3.59 BB/9, there’s been lots of balls in play due to a tiny 7.93 K/9 clip that ranks 29th while home runs have certainly been an issue by way of a 1.43 HR/9 clip that sits 28th league wide.

As for their work of late, they’ve turned in a brutal 6.85 ERA over the last two weeks, so the bleeding has not been stopped as this group continues to struggle mightily throughout the season.

Giants

The Giants just continue to win ball games and remain atop the NL West by four games over the second-place Dodgers as they’ve actually doubled that lead since the All-Star break.

They’ll look to keep rolling tonight in search of their fourth straight win behind Kevin Gausman who has his name in the Cy Young conversation now that Jacob deGrom is likely out until September.

Gausman will bring a 2.31 ERA/2.91 FIP into action tonight while his 3.21 xERA, 3.38 xFIP and 3.44 SIERA are all top-tier numbers as well. He’s struck out 10.68 K/9 against just 2.65 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard at a 0.82 HR/9 clip.

The surface numbers suggest he hasn’t been quite as sharp at home where he owns a 3.34 ERA compared to an eye-popping 1.55 mark at home, but peripherals suggest he’ll be better at home moving forward as he also owns a 2.96 FIP/3.05 xFIP at Oracle Park to go along with a slightly superior 4.31 K/BB ratio.

Gausman endured a couple of tough starts prior to his placement on the Paternity List as he surrendered nine runs in 8.2 frames spanning two starts against the Pirates and Astros, but he did hurl six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts against zero walks his last time out which came on the road against these D-backs.

He’s also hurled 19 innings of three run ball (1.42 ERA) across three starts against Arizona this season and dominated them to the tune of eight shutout innings in his lone start with his division rival at home this season.

Sticks No Longer Surprising

If you’re still surprised by how potent this Giants offense is you should just probably stop, or at least pay more attention as this group is for real.

They surprised many with a standout performance at the plate last season, but that work has gotten only better this season on the back of a couple of written-off veterans in Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford.

The Giants will enter this one ranked fifth in baseball with a .327 wOBA on the season, but their power has been even better with a .192 ISO that is tied with the Blue Jays for the top mark in baseball.

Against righties such as Kelly, the Giants sit fifth once again with a slightly superior .331 wOBA while the power actually improves to an even .200 ISO that is the best mark in the big leagues.

Despite the pitcher-friendly nature of Oracle Park, the Giants sit fourth with a .341 wOBA at home while their ISO sits at .189 and seventh in the league.

They’ve certainly had the sticks going of late as they hung eight runs on the D-backs to open this series last night while they’ve now scored 22 runs over their last three games, or more than seven runs per game. Over their last four against the D-backs the Giants have seven runs or more three times and have averaged 6.75 runs per game, so they’ve been able to rough up a weak D-backs pitching staff with authority.

Icing on the Cake

If the starting pitching and offensive work this team has put forth this season weren’t enough, the team’s bullpen has been among the league’s best.

That Giants ‘pen sports a third-ranked 3.24 ERA on the season and while the strikeouts are down to 8.31 K/9, their 2.76 BB/9 is the best mark in the business.

While the hard-hit rate is in the middle of the pack, the Giants’ bullpen has managed to keep in the ball in the park at a quality 1.04 HR/9 rate thanks in large part to a 5.9% barrel rate that sits second only to the division rival Dodgers and their 5.8% mark.

Obviously, it’s been tough to get to this Giants bullpen, one that puts you away late in games on the back of the one-two punch of Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee at the back end.

D-backs vs. Giants MLB Pick

Pick: Giants -1.5
Odds: -135
$100 Could Win You...$174.07

While I’ve seen the Giants run line shift from -125 to -135 earlier today, I have a heck of a time believing this team cannot win this one by two or more runs tonight.

The D-backs can’t hit righties and don’t hit on the road and their facing a right-handed Cy Young contender.

The Giants rake righties, rake at home and are facing a right-hander that’s struggled on the road.

Add in the massive difference in bullpen work — especially of late with the D-backs sporting a 6.85 bullpen ERA over the last two weeks and the Giants a sub-3.00 mark — and this one should go to San Fran by a landslide.

Sign me up for the Giants on the run line, -1.5 at -135 odds courtesy of BetUS!

James Peralta

As a recent addition to the GamblingSites.org team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. ...

View all posts by James Peralta
Email the author at: [email protected]