Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs Pick – Kansas City (-140)
Expect to see a few points on the board on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys head to face the Kansas City Chiefs in an exciting clash of NFC and AFC. These teams have Super Bowl aspirations, and they’ll be using Sunday’s game as a measuring stick to see if they can legitimately get there.
Both teams are coming off impressive wins in their last start where they completely dominated their opponents, setting up a great showdown. Look for the kickoff on Sunday afternoon at 4:25 PM Eastern Time from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Considering they’re teams from different conferences, the Chiefs and Cowboys usually hook up only once every four years or so. As a result, there have been only 11 games between the two teams since the Chiefs joined the NFL from the AFL in 2017. The Cowboys hold the edge in the series at 7-4.
Dallas has enjoyed a resurgent season thanks to a defense that is vastly improved from where it was in recent seasons. After losing an opening game heartbreaker, they reeled off seven straight wins before a clunker against Denver. They bounced back from that by beating Atlanta by 40 points last week.
Kansas City has not often looked like the two-time defending AFC champion in this 2021 season. The offense has been turnover-prone and the defense hasn’t stopped too many teams. Still, the Chiefs are coming off perhaps their best overall performance of the year in a win over division rival that stopped a two-game losing streak.
Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game
The point spread opened with Kansas City as a 2-point favorite at home over the Cowboys. It crawled back towards Dallas, getting down as low as a single point. But the recent trend has been back towards the Chiefs, rising to its current level (at the time of this writing) or 2.5 points.
Even with Dallas on the rise defensively this season, bettors seem to think this is going to be a high-scoring affair. Originally, the over/under line stood at 54 points. But the trend has been mostly upwards, with the most recent line sitting at 56, two points higher than the original.
Head to Head Betting Trends
Dallas has won three of the four games it has played against Kansas City
The Cowboys have also covered the spread in three of the last four games they’ve played against the Chiefs
The under has been the correct bet in the last two games between these two teams
The home team has won seven of the last eight games played in this series
Before Dallas won by 11 in 2017, the previous four games between the Cowboys and Chiefs were all decided by six points or less
Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends
Dallas has been one of the best teams in the NFL in covering the spread this season, doing it in eight of the nine games that they’ve played
The Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 against the spread when playing on the road so far in 2021
Dallas has only won 30 percent of their last ten games against AFC opponents
When playing against AFC West opponents, the Cowboys’ last five games have all gone under the projected points total
Dallas has covered the spread only 29 percent of the time when playing on grass since the start of the 2019 season
In games where the point spread is three points or less over the past three seasons, Dallas is only 3-11 against the spread over the past three years
The Cowboys have covered the spread only 36 percent of the time when playing teams with a winning record over the past three seasons
Dallas is four games above .500 over the past three years against the spread when playing as an underdog since the beginning of 2019
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
The Chiefs have yet to cover the spread when playing at home this year (they’re 0-5)
Kansas City is only 3-7 against the spread overall in 2021
Dating back to last year, Kansas City has covered the spread only 20 percent of their last 20 games
Kansas City has won 11 of its last 12 games when playing against AFC opponents
The Chiefs have covered the spread 75 percent of the time over the last three years in games where the point spread is three points or less
Kansas City has followed up a divisional win by covering the spread in their next games 70 percent of the time since 2019
Surprisingly considering the reputation of Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City is three games below .500 against the spread at home in the last three years of play
As a favorite over the past three seasons, Kansas City is dead even at .500 against the spread
Free Bet and Game Prediction:
There would appear to be a perfect storm of sorts in this game when it comes to the turnover department. The Chiefs are 31st in the league in giveaways, while the Cowboys are 4th in takeaways. Kansas City cleaned it up a bit last week with just a special teams turnover, but it is an area of concern.
Dallas will likely mimic what other teams have tried to do against Kansas City in keeping Tyreek Hill from beating them deep. That might mean interception machine Trevon Diggs won’t be in as much man-to-man coverage. But Dallas will make that tradeoff to prevent the big plays.
The good news is that Patrick Mahomes found his groove once again last week with a 400-yard game taking what the Raiders gave him. Travis Kelce also rebounded from a few off weeks by picking them apart over the middle. And without Randy Gregory, the Cowboy pass rush could struggle to pressure Mahomes.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs did a nice job last week against Las Vegas, but that was a depleted Raider team. The Cowboys offense presents a far different collection of threats. They’ll pound away on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to keep time of possession.
Once the Chiefs creep closer, Dallas will start to strike with Dak Prescott throwing to his assortment of receivers. Look for CeeDee Lamb in particular to have a big day. With Michael Gallup back, Lamb is free to run more routes in the middle of the field, which is where the Chief defense is vulnerable.
The key to this game will ultimately be in Mahomes can maintain the patience he showed last week against Vegas, even if Dallas is scoring points. We’re guessing that he’s learned his lesson. Look for the Chiefs to win a very tight one, with Dallas covering the slight spread in the process.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Recap:
Moneylines: Dallas Cowboys +120, Kansas City Chiefs -140
Spread: Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (-105), Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 56 (Over -115, Under -105)
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 33, Dallas Cowboys 31
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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