Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints Pick – New Orleans (+182)
The Dallas Cowboys visit the New Orleans Saints in an interdivisional NFC clash Thursday night with a lot on the line. Both teams are trying to bounce back from recent slumps that they can’t afford to see extended any longer.
Injuries and illness have beset these teams of late, and the Cowboys go into this game with defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as temporary head coach due to the COVID issues of Mike McCarthy. It should make for an interesting affair that kicks off Thursday night at 8:20 PM Eastern Time from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
The Cowboys and Saints have met on a semi-regular basis ever since New Orleans joined the NFL in the late 60s. Their first matchup was a Cowboys win back in October of 1967. Dallas does lead the overall series between the two teams, winning 17 games against the Saints’ 13 wins.
The Cowboys are in the midst of a stretch where they’ve lost three of their last four games. Injuries have been piling up on the offensive side of the ball. But it was the defense that let them down last week on Thanksgiving when the Raiders defeated them in a 36-33 thriller.
The Saints are in an even worse spot right now in terms of their recent play. It looked like they were ready to continue their success in the NFC South even after losing Drew Brees to retirement with the way they started the year. But they’ve dropped their last four games after starting 5-2 to drop below .500.
Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game
It’s perhaps not surprising that this point spread has been all over the place over the past few days. With injury news coming in on several key performers for both teams, the bettors have been responding. But what’s interesting is that the line, at the time of this writing, is right back where it started, with Dallas favored by 5.
Meanwhile, the over/under line has stayed relatively rigid at 47.5 points. In fact, the only thing that has moved with the points total is the corresponding moneyline. There is now a slight overlay to bet the over on this game.
Head to Head Betting Trends
The home team has both won the game and covered the spread the last five times that the Cowboys and Saints have played
Dallas hasn’t won in New Orleans since all the way back in 2009
The under has been the right bet the last three times the Cowboys met the Saints, after the over had been the right bet in the previous four games between the teams
The last three games in this series have been decided by six points or less
The underdog has covered the spread in 12 of the last 14 games these teams have played
Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends
The Cowboys covered the spread in the first seven games they played this year, but have since covered just one of their last four
Dallas has been solid against the spread on the road, covering four of their five road games this season
When the Cowboys game against the Raiders went over the projected points total last week, it broke a streak of four “under” games in a row played by Dallas
The Cowboys have won six of the last eight games they’ve played against NFC South opponents
The Cowboys haven’t won a Thursday game (0-5) in the last three years and have covered the spread in just one of those five Thursday contests
Dallas has covered the spread 75 percent of the time in the past three years when playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
In the 7 road games that Dallas has played since 2019 where they’ve been favored by between 3 1/2 and 7 points, they’ve covered 5 times
Dallas has covered the spread in three of four games played in a dome since the start of the 2019 season
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends
The Saints loss last week to Buffalo went under the points total, but their previous four games all went over
In their recent four-game losing streak the Saints have only covered the spread once
New Orleans will be the underdog on Thursday night against Dallas, making that four games in a row that they’ve gone off as underdogs
The Saints are just 2-4 against the spread in the last six games they’ve played at home
New Orleans has covered the spread as an underdog 75 percent of the time over the last three seasons of play
In games played against teams with winning records in the second half of the past three seasons New Orleans has covered just 29 percent of the time
The Saints covered 62 percent of the games they played in December in the 2019 and 2020 seasons
As an underdog of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points since the start of the 2019 season, New Orleans has both won outright and covered the spread 80 percent of the time
Free Bet and Game Prediction:
So much of this game will ride on which regulars who are banged up will be able to play. For New Orleans, it’s looking hopeful for running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and tackle Ryan Ramczyk. Meanwhile Ramczyk’s bookend Terron Armstead could sit, along with defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Tanoh Kpassagnon.
Although owner Jerry Jones expressed confidence in his return, wideout Amari Cooper will likely miss his third straight game with COVID, although his running mate CeeDee Lamb should return. Of note is the fact that Ezekiel Elliott practiced in full to start the week. This came after reports that Dallas could shut him down and allow Tony Pollard to lead the backfield.
The other big news in this game is that all signs point to Taysom Hill taking over at quarterback for New Orleans. Trevor Siemian went 0-4 as starter after leading the team to a win over Tampa Bay when he first relieved Jameis Winston. Hill and Kamara could form a 1-2 running punch that bothers the Cowboys in this one.
Sources: The #Saints appear poised to make a QB change. Taysom Hill is taking first-team reps this week in practice in preparation to face the #Cowboys. Trevor Siemian is taking No. 2 reps.
Dallas’ defense has started to struggle in recent weeks as the turnovers that carried them early in the season have dried up. If Ramczyk plays, the gives the Saints the kind of line play that could overwhelm the smallish Dallas front. And Kamara is a weapon that they have been sorely missing of late.
Many people feel Dallas would be wise to turn Pollard loose a little bit more, as Elliott has struggled to get untracked in recent weeks. Dak Prescott had his best game through the air since his return from injury against the Raiders last week. The return of Lamb will help, although the Saints might shadow him with corner Marshon Lattimore.
It feels like the Saints will be able to do some more of the things Sean Payton wants now that he has some of his longtime weapons in play. That should keep this game close into the final minutes. The Saints need this one a little more, so look for them to pull out all the stops for the upset victory.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints Betting Recap:
Moneylines: Dallas Cowboys -212, New Orleans Saints +182
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -5 (-110), New Orleans Saints +5 (-110)
Over/Under: 47.5 (Over -106, Under -114)
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 23, Dallas Cowboys 21
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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