Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns Pick – Cleveland (-125)
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A pair of .500 football teams go at it on Thursday night when the Denver Broncos go on the road to face off with the Cleveland Browns. Each team needs the win to put themselves into better playoff positioning in the AFC, which has proven to be extremely competitive so far this year.

It’s a game that both teams want badly, as Cleveland has lost two straight and the Broncos have dropped three in a row. The whole football world will be watching the kickoff at 8:20 PM Eastern Time from First Energy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Denver Broncos +1.5 (-110) +105 Over 41 (-110)
Cleveland Browns -1.5 (-110) -125 Under 41 (-110)
Betting Data Denver Broncos Cleveland Browns
2021 Record 3-3 3-3
2021 Home 1-2 2-1
2021 Away 2-1 1-2
2021 ATS 3-3 3-3
2021 ATS Home 1-2 1-2
2021 ATS Away 2-1 2-1
2021 O/U 2-4 4-2
2021 O/U Home 1-2 2-1
2021 O/U Away 1-2 2-1

Denver Cleveland Game Preview

These two teams don’t play each other all that often, as AFC teams that have always been in different divisions. But Denver has dominated what there has been of this series, winning 24 games against just 6 wins for Cleveland. A pair 80s playoff losses to the Broncos still haunt the Browns franchise.

For the Broncos, it’s been the tale of two seasons just six games into the year. They stormed out of the gate with three straight victories, taking advantage of weak opponents. But as the scedule has toughened up they’ve headed in the wrong direction, losing three straight to fall to .500.

The Browns schedule, meanwhile, hasn’t really let up at all. After losing a heartbreaker in the opener to the Chiefs, they reeled off three straight victories. But things have gone south the past two weeks with losses to the Chargers (in a close one) and Cardinals (in a blowout)

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

At press time, the point spread stood at 1 1/2 in favor of Cleveland. That’s quite the dropoff from where it started with the Browns as a 6-point favorite. The big move is largely in response to crucial Browns injuries at the skill positions changing bettors’ minds.

The over/under has gone through a similar trend. Originally, the line came in at 44, which is a relatively low-scoring estimate to start. But all of the injury doubts have pushed bettors to be bearish in the over/under, and it has plummeted all the way to 41.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • These two teams split the last two games in their series, but prior to that the Broncos had beaten the Browns 11 times in a row
  • In the last seven Browns Broncos games, Cleveland has covered the spread at a rate of 5-1-1
  • The over has been the correct wager in four of the last six Cleveland-Denver contests
  • The last time that Cleveland was able to beat the Broncos at home came all the way back in 1989
  • The underdog has won the last two games in this series outright and has won four of the last eight

Denver Broncos Betting Trends

  • Denver has both won outright and covered the spread in two of its first three games on the road this season
  • The under has been the right bet in four of the first six Broncos games this year
  • Five of the last seven games that the Broncos have played on the road have gone under the projected points total
  • Denver has covered 11 of their last 14 games played on a Thursday night
  • In the last three years following losses to AFC West opponents, the Broncos have followed it up by covering the spread the next game they played seven times in a row
  • The Broncos are five games above .500 against the spread as an underdog since the 2019 season
  • They’ve covered the spread at a rate of 58 percent over the past three years in games on the road
  • Denver has won only one of its last four games against the AFC North, covering in two of those four contests

Cleveland Browns Betting Trends

  • The Browns have covered only one of their first three games that they’ve played at home in Cleveland
  • The over has been the right bet in 67 percent of the games that the Browns have played so far in 2021
  • Four of the last five games the Browns have played in Cleveland have gone over the projected number
  • Cleveland has lost five games in a row to AFC West teams
  • The Browns have covered the spread in only 30 percent of their games played in October dating back to 2019
  • Cleveland is five games under .500 against the spread when playing as a favorite over the past three seasons
  • In addition, the Browns are just 7-11 at home against the spread in that same time span
  • In games the Browns have played the last three seasons where the spread has been below 3 points, they have covered only 40 percent of the time

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

Injury issues are the main storyline for this game. Cleveland will be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, starting running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and possibly starting wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. It will be a skeleton crew lining up against a Denver defense fourth in the league in yards against.

Case Keenum, who was the Broncos signal-caller a few years back, gets the nod under center for Cleveland. It’s not likely that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski will put too much on his plate. Instead, look for third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson to be the offensive focus behind the Browns excellent offensive line.

Denver’s run defense has been excellent, but they’ll be without their top two inside linebackers in this game. Throw in expected windy connections and the lack of breakout targets, and it’s likely Keenum will be in his typical game manager mode. That puts pressure on Johnson to step up big with his opportunity.

For Denver, it appears that Teddy Bridgewater, hobbled by injuries the past few weeks, will be under center, at least to start the game. It doesn’t seem likely that Jerry Jeudy will be returning from injury this week. But Bridgewater has some good options for catching the ball with
Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant.

Cleveland’s pass defense sprung some huge leaks in losses the last two to the Chargers and Cardinals. But they could get better with their Myles Garrett-led pass rush coming after Bridgewater, who is stuck behind a line allowing the 7th-worst sack rate in football.

Cleveland has played the run consistently well throughout the early part of the season, which could put a crimp in Denver’s ball control plans. Look for that Browns defense to win the night by providing a major shutdown of every phase of the Broncos attack, and look for Cleveland to win and cover.

Pick: Cleveland
Odds: -125
$100 Could Win You...$180

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Denver +105, Cleveland -125
  • Spread: Denver +1.5 (-110), Cleveland -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 41 (Over -110, Under -110)
  • Prediction: Cleveland 24, Denver 14
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

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