Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Pick – Kansas City (-410)
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The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in the Sunday Night Football showcase in the NFL this weekend. In addition to this being a traditional rivalry, first place will be on the line in the AFC West when these two meet up.

As the above tweet implies, the Broncos have a had a long, hard road against the Chiefs in recent years. Will this game be more of the same, or will there be an upset. we’ll find out with the kickoff on Sunday night at 8:20 PM Eastern Time from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Denver Broncos +10 (-120) +330 Over 47 (-108)
Kansas City Chiefs -10 (+100) -410 Under 47 (-112)
Betting Data Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs
2021 Record 6-5 7-4
2021 Home 3-3 4-2
2021 Away 3-2 3-2
2021 ATS 6-5 4-7
2021 ATS Home 3-3 1-5
2021 ATS Away 3-2 3-2
2021 O/U 2-9 5-6
2021 O/U Home 1-5 2-4
2021 O/U Away 1-4 3-2

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Game Preview

The Broncos and the Chiefs have been knocking heads all the way back to their time as expansion teams in the NFL at the start of the 1960s. It’s been a streaky series, with both teams enjoying periods of dominance over the other. At the moment, Kansas City leads the overall matchup with 67 wins against 55 for the Broncos.

The Broncos have been an extremely streaky team this season. After winning their first three games, they then went into freefall with four losses in a row. But they’ve rebounded to win three of four, with impressive wins over Dallas and the Los Angeles Chargers in that stretch of play.

Kansas City has also known some of that inconsistency as they try to win their third straight AFC Championship. Losing to AFC powers Baltimore, the Chargers, Buffalo and Tennessee put them at 3-4 and made that goal seem far-fetched. But they’ve come back to win their last four, cleaning up in on that NFC with three of those victories.

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

This line has pushed slightly in favor of the favorite since the beginning of the week. Kansas City was originally installed as a 9 1/2 point favorite to begin the week. Since then, Chiefs backers have brought that up to an even 10-point spread.

There has been significant movement on the over/under line, all in a downward direction. The line was set at 50 to start off, but bearish pressure has been on it the whole time. It has dropped down to 47, a full three points from where it began.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Kansas City comes into this game with 11 straight victories over the Broncos
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 9 of those 11 straight wins over Denver
  • Since 1985, there hasn’t been in instance where an underdog of 10 points or more in a Chiefs-Broncos game won outright
  • Denver’s last win over the Chiefs came all the way back in September of 2015
  • In five of the last six games played between Denver and Kansas City, the under has been the correct over/under wager

Denver Broncos Betting Trends

  • The last five games that Denver has played have gone under the projected points total
  • Overall, just two Broncos games have gone over the over/under line so far this year, including only one of their five road games
  • Denver has won three of their last four games outright and have covered the spread in three of four as well
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in every game they’ve won this year and failed to cover in every game that they’ve lost
  • In games following up another division game over the past three seasons, the Broncos have covered the spread 82 percent of the time
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 56 percent of their road games since the start of the 2019 season
  • Denver has covered the spread in 58 percent of their games as an underdog over the past three seasons of play
  • The Broncos have covered the spread only 43 percent of the time against other AFC West teams in the last three years

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread at home this season, doing so just once in their six home games
  • Only two of the six games the Chiefs, who have a reputation as a high-scoring team, have played this year at home have gone over the number
  • The under has been the right bet in five of the last six Chiefs games
  • Going back to last season, Kansas City has covered the spread in just 25 percent of their last 20 games
  • Kansas City has covered the spread in 67 percent of their December games since the start of the 2019 season
  • When playing a game following a winning streak of at least two games over the past three seasons, the Chiefs have covered the spread 56 percent of the time
  • The Chiefs are two games under .500 against the spread at home since the start of the 2019 season
  • They’ve covered the spread in 56 percent of their division games over the last three seasons of play

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

How do the Broncos go about stopping the long losing streak to the Chiefs, especially at Arrowhead, which is so unforgiving to visitors. The best way to to do that is to run the ball, and that’s what Denver wants to do anyway. If the game script stays positive, Denver is going to pound away with Melvin Gordon ad Javonte Williams.

The Chiefs tend to funnel opponents into passing the ball, but their run defense isn’t that imposing. They allow 4.6 yards per carry, which is 28th in the NFL. But there is no doubt that the Kansas City defense has stepped up its game in recent weeks, allowing less than 20 points a game in the four-game winning streak.

Part of that has to do with facing opponents who weren’t at their best (Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, Dallas without several key receivers.) But Denver’s passing attack, even at full-strength, doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents. And they especially struggle to come from behind, which certainly could be the case in this one.

As long as the KC defense continues to play well, they can get away with Patrick Mahomes operating at less than maximum efficiency. Kansas City is still attempting more passes than anybody in the league. But Mahomes has been content to dink and dunk instead of forcing the big play, which has led to excess turnovers.

Mahomes has thrown for under six yards per pass in three of the last four. But he has also only been picked twice in that stretch, after throwing eight interceptions in the first seven games. That might have to be the tradeoff until defenses release their death grip on the Chiefs deep passing game.

This game feels like one where both teams will move the ball well between the 20s. Kansas City has more options in the red zone, however, which gives them the edge for the victory. The winning streak will continue, but Denver will keep it close enough to cover the point spread.

Pick: Kansas City
Odds: -420
$100 Could Win You...$124.39

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Denver Broncos +330, Kansas City Chiefs -410
  • Spread: Denver Broncos +10 (-120), Kansas City Chiefs -10 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 47 (Over -108, Under -112)
  • Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Denver Broncos 17
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

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