Dodgers vs Giants – MLB Pick for September 13th

by Kevin Roberts
on September 13, 2017

The Los Angeles Dodgers are back, baby! Well, maybe they are and maybe they aren’t. All we know for sure is Clayton Kershaw did his job and the Dodgers held on late to snap a nasty 11-game skid.

The win comes just in time to save the Dodgers from an epic collapse, handing them the NL West title and a spot in the 2017 MLB playoffs. For the moment, L.A.’s spot as the top World Series favorite at Bovada (+300) remains in place and the slumping Dodgers can focus on getting back to elite status.

Taking down the Giants to break a slump isn’t impressive, but it was absolutely necessary. Now Los Angeles heads into the heart of their series with their rivals, hoping to build momentum as the playoffs near. Yu Darvish (8-12, 4.25 ERA) helps make the Dodgers easy -215 favorites at Bovada and pretty much any MLB betting site you stumble across today.

Only helping the Dodgers is the conservative AT&T Park and a cakewalk matchup with the volatile Matt Moore (5-13, 5.31 ERA), who has gotten waxed by L.A. in 2017. There isn’t much value with the Dodgers straight up, but this should be a safe pick that puts their -1.5 Run Line (-130) very much in play.

Should we trust the Dodgers and take what looks like free money, or should we target the upset? Let’s break this matchup down further to find out:

Los Angeles Dodgers(-185)
VS
San Francisco Giants(+185)
Total: 7.5

Given the fact that the Dodgers literally just ended an 11-game drought, there is serious value with the Giants here. San Francisco offers major upside at +185 and they’re at home, where they’ve gone a respectable (for them) 33-39 on the year.

That, unfortunately, is where the optimism ends.

San Francisco has given a more concerted effort in the second half of the season, but their season ranks are still atrocious. The Giants face an elite arm in Darvish and don’t convert on righties very well. They lack any real pop (dead last in home runs versus righties) and they aren’t very efficient (26th in batting average) when taking on right-handed pitching, either.

If you’re trying to pitch the argument that they’ve been better since the All-Star break, it’s a faint narrative. While they’re clearly less terrible, the Giants still rank dead last in homers overall since the midway point, while their collective batting average is still good for a pedestrian 14th place.

San Francisco knows the Dodgers and they’re at home, but they don’t really know Darvish. The former Rangers hurler hasn’t faced the Giants yet this year, so this has to be looked at as a tasty matchup for him. The 31-year old righty hasn’t been in elite form lately (3+ runs allowed in each of his last four starts), but this is a welcomed matchup on paper.

It only helps that Darvish has for some reason been at his best on the road this year (2.84 ERA), he has the splits edge and the main thing he has issues with (27 homers) isn’t going to be prevalent in this park against these Giants.

Darvish is impossible not to love here, but MLB bettors can find even more comfort on the other side of this NL West showdown.

Matt Moore will toe the rubber for the Giants and on the year he’s been worse than Darvish by a mile. His recent form has actually been solid, as he’s given up 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s prone to brutal outings, however, and his history against these Dodgers in 2017 (0-1, 7.02 ERA across three starts) isn’t promising.

It’s true that L.A. hasn’t been themselves as a whole and that obviously extends to their offense. However, this has turned into a team that absolutely rakes against southpaws. Moore has seen that firsthand, while Los Angeles currently chimes in as the 2nd best lineup in terms of power and 14th in batting average when taking on lefties.

You obviously aren’t cashing big with the Dodgers straight up tonight. That’s a safe and logical bet, but we might as well aim high here. The odds are good that L.A. wins, Darvish contains the Giants and Moore doesn’t contain the Dodgers. Collectively, that points to the -1.5 Run Line and when you get the Dodgers by two runs for -130, you have to take it.

Tonight as a whole does not hand us much value to get after, so the Dodgers over the Giants by two runs feels like one of the best picks to make. You can even hunt for a little extra value, as BetOnline gives you the same bet at -126 and some other MLB betting sites could offer a little more upside, as well.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-130)
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