Dolphins vs Patriots – NFL Pick for September 30th

by Rick Rockwell
on September 28, 2018
6

Minute Read

Sunday’s AFC East showdown pits an undefeated team against a struggling team desperate for the win. However, if you thought the struggling team was Miami then you would be wrong. The Dolphins have stunned the NFL by coming out of the gates and going undefeated as the sit atop the division all by themselves, while the Patriots are desperately trying to get a win. Kickoff inside Gillette Stadium is at 1 PM ET.

Betting Data History Miami Dolphins New England Patriots
2018 record 3-0 1-2
2018 Home record 2-0 1-0
2018 Away record 1-0 0-2
2018 ATS 3-0 1-2
2018 ATS Home 2-0 1-0
2018 ATS Away 1-0 0-2
2018 O/U 2-1 1-2
2018 O/U Home 2-0 0-1
2018 O/U Away 0-1 1-1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots AFC East Game Preview

Sunday’s matchup marks the 106th meeting between these two rivals. Overall, the Dolphins lead the series 54-51 and they also won the last encounter, which was December 2017 in Miami. Since 2009, the Patriots are 13-5 against the Dolphins. Additionally, the Patriots are 9-1 against the Dolphins in the last 10 games in New England.

Miami (3-0) has won all three of their games by 8 points or less and look to get another divisional win this weekend. The Dolphins have already defeated the Jets in Week 2 on the road. Miami will try to kick the Patriots while they’re down and improve their record to 4-0.

New England (1-2) has lost two straight games and look rather beatable right now. Running back Rex Burkhead was just placed on IR and the team is still waiting for Edelman to return. However, they might have Josh Gordon on the field this weekend, which could really open up the offense especially for Gronk. Can the Patriots hand the Dolphins their first loss?

With many online betting sites, the Patriots opened up as a 7 point favorite. Currently, the spread has remained unchanged. The Over/Under opened and 48 points before fluctuating slightly and eventually returning to 48 total points with most sportsbooks.

NFL Spread Bet and Game Prediction

As I look over what Miami has done, I’m not impressed. They’ve defeated the Raiders, Jets and Titans on the year. None of those teams will make the playoffs. Furthermore, Miami is averaging under 100 yards rushing per game, which is a surprise considering that Drake and Gore are talented backs.

Offensively, the Dolphins rank 23rd in total yards per game at 345. They’re 19th in passing and 16th in rushing. They average 25 ppg, which is good for 11th in the NFL. With that said, I don’t believe this offense has the firepower to go into Gillette Stadium and beat an angry Patriots team.

The Patriots offense has been rather weak this season. They’re scoring 19 ppg, 20th in rushing, 26th in passing, and 25th in total yards per game with 312.3 ypg. That is not Patriots football and I expect this offense to get going on Sunday.

The Dolphins defense gives up 388.7 ypg with the bulk of that coming via the passing game at 299.7 ypg. That’s great news for Tom Brady who really needs a big game this season. New England’s offense has struggled over the last two weeks only averaging 15 ppg and losing both of those games on the road. Now, that they’re back home this weekend, I expect the stadium to be rocking and the offense to be scoring.

As for the Patriots defense, they have been gashed this year as they’re allowing 25.7 ppg and 414.7 total ypg. New England is the second worst rush defense in the league allowing 143.3 ypg. That means if NE doesn’t improve quickly, Dolphins’ RBs Drake and Gore could be in line for a big day.

The Patriots are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, 6-1 ATS as a favorite at home when the line is 3.5 points to 7.5 points, 14-5 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record, 8-4 ATS AFC East opponents in their last 12, 22-8 ATS against AFC opponents, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Miami, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Dolphins. Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

I think whoever can establish the running game this weekend will win the AFC battle. I expect Brady to come out and lead the Patriots to victory. Look for Tom to throw for over 250 passing yards and 3 TDs. Additionally, I like Michel this game as I believe the Patriots could really feed the rookie running back. I believe the defense will show improvement especially with Flowers coming back.

The Dolphins have been decent so far, but they will need to be great in order to beat the Patriots on the road.

There’s no betting value in the Patriots moneyline and I’m not comfortable with the Over/Under in this game. I like New England to win by at least a touchdown. Over their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Dolphins have averaged 19.6 ppg and the Patriots have averaged 27.5 ppg. I like those averages to come close this weekend as I’m picking New England to win 28 to 20.

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Recap

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Dolphins (+245) and Patriots (-290)
  • Spread: Patriots -7 (-102)
  • Over/Under: 48 total points (-112)
  • Prediction: New England 28 – Miami 20
Pick: Patriots -7
-102

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