Baseball gives us a fully loaded Tuesday slate, as we get no day games and see all 30 teams in action, starting at 7:05 pm ET.
This looks like a great slate for MLB betting, especially since we really only have two elite arms – Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish – to contender with. Picking against the Rangers and Nats could be problematic (although it likely offers some nice upset upside), but the other 13 games could otherwise be fair game.
It’s a jam-packed slate with a lot to consider, so let’s dive in and see where our MLB bets should lead heading into Tuesday night’s action:
Chicago White Sox (+1.5)
New York Yankees (-1.5)
Miguel Gonzalez (1-0, 4.22 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (1-0, 4.50 ERA)
Weather: 10 mph winds, high of 57 degrees, 3% chance of rain
Moneyline: White Sox +168, Yankees -196
The White Sox are back at it with the Yankees on Tuesday, following their series opening tilt at Yankee Stadium on Monday night. Miguel Gonzalez is scheduled to toe the rubber for Sox, who have been hit or miss early in 2017, but have had most of their success away from home.
That couldn’t be said for Gonzalez a season ago, when he went 0-4 with a 3.68 ERA on the road. Gonzalez did find some success in this particular matchup in 2016, however, as he blazed through this Yankees lineup with a sweet 2.31 ERA across 11 innings of work.
Gonzalez hasn’t exactly been unhittable early on this year, but he’s kept it together with 11 Ks and 16 ground balls through his first two starts. He will understandably need to be on top of his game in a hitter’s park, where he’ll battle a red hot New York offense that is mashing righties (4th in batting average vs. right-handed pitching).
Even if New York’s bats don’t stay hot, the Yanks could get another strong outing from starting pitcher, Luis Severino. Severino torched the Rays (11 Ks) in his most recent start and could be in for an equally impressive outing against a Chicago lineup that ranks 28th at connecting versus right-handed pitching.
While this matchup could favor Severino, it’s worth noting things didn’t go quite as planned the last time he faced the White Sox. Chicago destroyed him in 2017, lighting him up for seven earned runs in just two innings of work.
Odds are Severino won’t face plant that hard on Tuesday, as he’s coming off of a gem and should get some support from his hot bats at home. This is a pitching matchup that admittedly could go either way, but New York’s offense holds the mild edge in their home stadium.
Boston Red Sox (+1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
Brian Johnson (2017 debut) vs. Marcus Stroman (1-1, 1.76 ERA)
Weather: Irrelevant (Retractable Roof)
Moneyline: Red Sox +145, Blue Jays -170
We get a clash of two AL East rivals on Tuesday, but this matchup might not be as explosive as it was a year ago. Toronto has been one of the worst teams in baseball to get 2017 rolling, as their sluggish offense has badly missed Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson is currently missing time with a calf issue.
This could be the perfect spot for Boston pitcher Brian Johnson to make his 2017 debut, which will be just the second start in the majors ever for the lefty. Johnson gave up three runs on three hits in his lone start two years ago, and will be eyeing a little better production against a Toronto offense searching for answers.
Marcus Stroman appears to be the only real stability for the Jays, who haven’t been able to secure wins even when the pitching has been spot on. Stroman knows that as good as anyone, as he’s given up just three runs and induced 27 ground balls, yet is just 1-1 on the year. Stroman will aim to add a little more heat to the plate in this one, as he’ll certainly have his work cut out for him against a Boston offense that forced him into a staggering 9.92 ERA across 16 frames in 2016.
While Stroman has been a bright spot for the Jays in 2017, this isn’t a good matchup for him and truth be told, the Red Sox are still waiting to truly take flight as an offense. I’m not entirely sure a road tilt versus Toronto has them explode, but they should inflict enough damage on Stroman to back Johnson into a win.
Weather: 9 mph winds, high of 73 degrees, 17% chance of rain
Moneyline: Orioles -145, Reds +135
Ubaldo Jimenez will toe the rubber for the Orioles for the third time this year, this time hoping to deliver a strong performance that ends in his first win of 2017. Jimenez has not been on top of his game early on this season, getting slapped around in two starts versus the Yankees and Red Sox.
Jimenez can make batters miss and get into the zone, but he hasn’t locked into that mode yet this season. The 33-year old righty will get a chance to redeem himself on Tuesday against an explosive Reds offense that has made itself known to be one of the more potent offenses in the majors this year.
That’s understandably a bad spot to be in, but Jimenez could easily be bailed out by a dream showdown with an even worse pitcher in the 40-year old Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has been all kinds of awful in his return to the majors after a two-year hiatus, going 0-2 while getting dinged up in his first two starts.
Neither team is going to get much help from their starting pitching in this one, but the mild edge still belongs to the Orioles, who have the more proven bats and a pitcher that carries a little more upside. Both pitchers will ultimately cave in a showdown that will beg for us to bet on the Over, but Baltimore has actually been passable on the road and feels like the safer play.
Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5)
New York Mets (-1.5)
Zach Eflin (2017 debut) vs. Zack Wheeler (1-1, 7.45 ERA)
Weather: 13 mph winds, 57 degrees, 3% chance of rain
Moneyline: Phillies +144, Mets -168
The Phillies and Mets go to war on Tuesday, as both NL East rivals try to get their seasons back on the right path. Philly has sunk down to the bottom of the division after a 4-8 start, while the Mets have regressed after a blazing 7-3 start, losing each of their last three games.
Zack Wheeler will try to get the Mets off the schneid at home, where he’ll attempt to handle a Phillies lineup that can explode offensively. The 26-year old righty got dinged up in his 2017 debut, but forced 10 ground balls and was more in control in his second start – a win over these very Phillies in Philadelphia.
Zach Eflin will toe the rubber on the other side for the Phillies, where he’ll also be making his first start of the year. Elfin didn’t really produce at a high level on the road a year ago (2-3, 6.45 ERA), while his run-in with the Mets in 2016 also produced a sluggish 4.50 ERA.
Overall, Wheeler looks to have the edge here, as he’s at home and has a more potent offense backing him. The Phillies are also below average to start the year against right-handed pitching, so provided New York’s bats show up, the Mets look to be in a good spot to get the win. The volatility of the pitching on both sides also probably points to the Over in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers (+1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
Michael Fulmer (1-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. Matt Andriese (0-0, 4.50 ERA)
Weather: Irrelevant (Dome)
Moneyline: Tigers -105, Rays -115
The typically stable Michael Fulmer prepares to make his third start of the year on Tuesday, as he tries to keep a hot Tigers team rolling in Tampa Bay. The Rays are back home after a long road trip and they’ve enjoyed almost all of their success at Tropicana Field. Can Fulmer keep them under wraps, or will the Rays bounce back in front of their home crowd?
Fulmer certainly has positive momentum working on his side, as he’s looked sharp across two starts, allowing three total runs and striking out 11 batters. He hasn’t taken to the road yet in 2017, but fared admirably there in 2016, going 8-5 with a solid 3.09 ERA. Fulmer also easily dispatched these Rays in 2016, grinding them to a pulp while displaying an elite 0.64 ERA with a 2-0 mark across 14 frames.
Backed by some lethal bats, Fulmer looks to be in a pretty solid spot. He’ll still have to be on top of his game, however, as the Rays play well at home and could finally get a gem out of Matt Andriese, who hasn’t really delivered at a high level through two starts, but could be due.
Andriese handled the Yanks fairly well at Yankee Stadium in his last start, and now he’s back home where he went 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 2016. He didn’t fare all that well against these Tigers, unfortunately, going just 1-1 with an unhealthy 5.40 ERA in 2016.
This matchup absolutely favors Fulmer and the Tigers, with the only knock being the Rays at home. I’m not sure that’s enough to get behind Tampa Bay, though, as this team has struggled lately (lost three straight) and might not be able to limit Detroit’s pop. it’s worth noting, of course, the Tigers could be a bit less explosive than usual if Miguel Cabrera misses any time with a tweaked back.
Ultimately, we’re siding with the Tigers, and given the park and pitching talent, we’ll roll with the Under in what could be a pitcher’s battle.
Washington Nationals (+1.5)
Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
Max Scherzer (1-1, 2.13 ERA) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (0-1, 6.35 ERA)
Weather: 8 mph winds, high of 79 degrees, 58% chance of rain
Moneyline: Nats -175, Braves +150
The top ace on this loaded MLB slate is without a doubt Max Scherzer, as he’ll take on a familiar foe in the beatable Atlanta Braves. On the surface this looks like a cakewalk for the K king, as Scherzer knows the Braves like the back of his hand and also won’t have to worry about dong master, Matt Kemp.
Scherzer has still taken his licks in this series and anything can happen on the road, but he’s been largely on top of his game through two starts (17 Ks, 3 earned runs) and the 32-year old righty got past the Braves (4-0, 3.78 ERA) well enough in all of his starts a year ago.
That ERA isn’t quite what we want from a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber, but he’s always had a little trouble with the long ball. That could put Freddie Freeman on high alert in this matchup, but with Kemp down it’d be shocking if Mad Max didn’t just avoid Freeman entirely.
Freeman is the chief concern in a matchup Scherzer should otherwise dominate. It’s not quite set in stone on the other side, as Mike Foltynewicz has some arm talent but hasn’t lasted longer than three innings in two starts this year. Folty was at his best at home a year ago and he’s shown he can survive a powerful Nats lineup, but this obviously is a less than desirable spot for him.
It can’t help that Washington is absolutely slaying right-handed pitching these days (5th in the majors) and is even fourth in baseball with jacks against righties. Overall, this just isn’t an ideal spot for Folty and he’s going up against one of the best arm talents in the game today. One way or another, the Nats are getting a win in this one, but with the pitching talent the scoring might be contained enough to have this one hit the Under.
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 1.38 ERA) vs. Brett Anderson (1-0, 0.84 ERA)
Weather: 11 mph winds, high of 71 degrees, 3% chance of rain
Moneyline: Brewers +150, Cubs -175
The Brew Crew looks to stay hot on Tuesday, as they hunt for back-to-back wins at Wrigley Field and their 8th win in their last 11 tries. Milwaukee has really been heating up lately, as Eric Thames has donged in an insane five straight games, while Ryan Braun has also sported a lively bat. Milwaukee’s pitching has also surprisingly held up, while Jimmy Nelson faces the Cubs for a second time, hoping his recent success against them holds firm.
Nelson has certainly had a hold on the Cubs, as he pitched six innings of one-run ball against them at Miller Park in their first series and held them in check for the most part last year (1-3, 3.77 ERA). The downfall for the Brewers tends to be the lack of run support for a homed in Nelson, who clearly isn’t a fan of the Cubs.
As solid as Nelson has been in the face of a nasty Chicago offense, he historically just hasn’t gotten the help he’s needed. Add in his traditional road struggles (10-21 with an ugly 5.10 ERA over the last three seasons) and this isn’t the best spot to ride and die with the Brew Crew.
Of course, we do need to pay some mind to Chicago’s surprisingly inconsistent bats. Chicago is slumping with four straight losses thanks to an erratic offense, while they specifically are having major issues against right-handed pitching (28th in homers, 22nd in batting average) so far in 2017.
Chicago doesn’t figure to get much of a break on the other side, either, as southpaw Brett Anderson takes on a Brewers team that is crushing left-handed pitching (3rd in baseball with a .281 batting average and .395 wOBA) right now. Anderson did handle Milwaukee just fine on the road in his 2017 debut, however, when he scattered five hits and one earned run across five innings.
The knee-jerk reaction is to trust the Cubs at home, but Anderson isn’t exactly an elite arm and the Brewers are mashing lefties. On the flip side, Chicago has not been themselves for pretty much the entire year on offense and Jimmy Nelson has really been dialed in against this offense. If the Brewers can simply back him up, we like him to get a rare win. While we like Nelson and the Brewers, there remains a ton of offensive potential in these bats, so betting on the Over isn’t a bad idea.
Cleveland Indians (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5)
Josh Tomlin (0-2, 18.47 ERA) vs. Phil Hughes (2-0, 3.86 ERA)
Weather: 14 mph winds, high of 56 degrees, 5% chance of rain
Moneyline: Indians -120, Twins EVEN
Josh Tomlin will look to turn his 2017 season around in his third start of the year, as he takes on a powerful Twins lineup on the road on Tuesday. He’ll be facing the volatile Phil Hughes on the other side in a game that gives us a clear shot at the Over with loads of offensive upside.
Tomlin was a stud in the playoffs a year ago, but he’s again flashed his propensity to give up the long ball early in 2017. Tomlin has actually only allowed two home runs, but he’s otherwise gotten slapped around with regularity, as he’s given up 15 hits in just over five innings of work.
That could be some rough foreshadowing for this road tilt with the Twins – a team Tomlin didn’t necessarily have his best stuff against in 2016 (5.14 ERA in four starts). The silver lining here, of course, is the Twins have not mashed righties thus far in 2017 (25th in homers and 18th in batting average versus right-handed pitching). He could still struggle on the road given his recent form, but this otherwise might not be the worst matchup.
Phil Hughes will also look to keep it together, just as he’s actually been able to do across two solid starts. Hughes will eye his third win in a row, as well as a perfect record, as he tries to aid the Twins in avoiding a three-game skid.
Hughes has kept himself from coming unglued to this point, but could be in trouble against a potent Indians offense that has the 9th best batting average against righties this year and the 8th most home runs.
Overall, this game leans Cleveland’s way due to their offensive upside, while the best bet is the Over.
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5)
Houston Astros (-1.5)
Ricky Nolasco (0-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-0, 4.35 ERA)
Weather: Irrelevant (Retractable Roof)
Moneyline: Angels +135, Astros -155
We get a very interesting pitching matchup in Houston tonight, as the ever shaky Ricky Nolasco tries to pick up his first win of the 2017 season as he faces off with the 24-year old Musgrove, who offers some K upside.
Things could certainly even out in this tilt, of course, as Musgrove can struggle with his control and will be taking on an Angels lineup that usually isn’t very explosive, but also doesn’t K a ton. That could demand Musgrove to be on top of his game, especially since he hasn’t brought the heat (4 Ks) to this point.
The good news is Musgrove has been sensational at home, posting an elite 3-1 mark with a stellar 1.75 ERA at home a year ago. He also quieted these Halos, holding them to just one run in seven innings of work in 2016.
It will be very interesting to see which version of Musgrove shows up in this matchup, but it may not matter with an explosive Astros team taking on Nolasco, who is prone to giving up the long ball. Nolasco has displayed his shakiness more often than not early in 2017, allowing five jacks and 19 hits in just three starts.
Nolasco is still chasing that elusive first win and will be attempting to snag it on the road against a Houston lineup that is third in the majors right now (.289) at connecting on right-handed pitching. The power hasn’t been there, but the Astros could find it against Nolasco.
Houston looks like the easy call here. They’re at home, they’re red hot (5 straight wins), they have the pitching talent edge, they have the more explosive offense and this is a great spot for them to have a dong party. L.A. has also been awful (2-6) on the road and may not garner the run support Nolasco needs even if he does somehow deliver a gem. We simply don’t see the former happening, so we’re siding with Houston and with all of the offensive upside in this one, we’re naturally hunting the Over.
San Francisco Giants (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
Matt Cain (1-0, 4.82 ERA) vs. Jason Hammel (0-1, 6.52 ERA)
Weather: 10 mph winds, high of 76 degrees, 15% chance of rain
Moneyline: Giants +110, Royals -130
The Giants dropped three of four against Colorado at home over the weekend, and now they’ll hit the road for an interleague series in Kansas City. The Royals, meanwhile, just swept the Angels and come into this one having won four straight.
San Francisco will turn to human gas can Matt Cain in this one, as he’ll try to keep himself from bursting into flames on the road against a Royals offense that has woken up lately. Cain was surprisingly brilliant in a home win (6 Ks, 1 earned run) over the Diamondbacks recently, but he could be in trouble on the road, where he was just 1-3 with an ugly 5.81 ERA in 2016.
On the other side, we get Jason Hammel, who was as reliable as they come at home with the Cubs in 2016, but failed to deliver in his Royals home debut on April 12th, falling to the Athletics. The 34-year old righty will search for his first win overall as a member of the Royals on Tuesday, however, where he’ll try to outsmart a Giants offense that has been merely a middle of the pack unit against right-handers in 2017.
The easy money rests with KC in this one, as Hammel was elite at his home base a year ago and is arguably too good to stay down for much longer. He’s far easier to get behind than Cain, too, while the Giants (2-5 away from home) haven’t shown the ability to produce on the road on a consistent basis yet in 2017.
Kansas City lacks reliable power and we don’t really trust the Giants on the road, but the pitching remains suspect. We’ll back the Royals at home, but this game wouldn’t shock us to hit the Over.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
Chad Kuhl (1-0, 2.38 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (1-1, 0.60 ERA)
Weather: 7 mph winds, high of 75 degrees, 6% chance of rain
Moneyline: Pirates +115, Cardinals -135
After walking six Braves in a wild 2017 debut, Chad Kuhl calmed things down in his second outing against the Red Sox. He was extremely effective in Boston, hurling 6.1 innings of one-run ball in what was an eventual Pirates loss. He isn’t an overpowering strikeout guy, but he’ll pitch to contact and induce a decent number of ground balls when the control is there.
Kuhl will get to go up against a Cardinals lineup that has stumbled out of the gates. Dexter Fowler has yet to find his footing in his new digs, and the rest of the lineup has been largely punchless. Stephen Piscotty, hitting a cool .258, was the Cardinals’ leading hitter entering play Tuesday. That paints a pretty clear picture of just how inept STL has been with the bats.
On the mound for the Cards will be Mike Leake, who’s looking strong after a forgettable first season with the club in 2016. Leake has allowed just one run through 15 innings so far this season, including an impressive outing last time out against the Nationals in which he didn’t allow a run and struck out seven. He’s an elite ground ball pitcher, though he does have a solid 13 whiffs so far this year.
Leake has started more games against the Pirates (13) than he has against any other club over the last three seasons, and the results have been largely favorable for him. He’s 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA during that stretch, though he was just 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in three starts against the Bucs last season.
Neither pitcher is what you’d call an ace, but these are also a pair of offenses that have been sputtering over the first couple of weeks. We’ll give the slight edge to the Cardinals at home.
Texas Rangers (-1.5)
Oakland Athletics (+1.5)
Yu Darvish (1-1, 2.33 ERA) vs. Andrew Triggs (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
Weather: 12 mph winds, high of 60 degrees, 8% chance of rain
Moneyline: Rangers -135, Athletics +115
With the Rangers’ bullpen in the midst of some serious turmoil, they’ll breathe a sigh of relief when they send Yu Darvish to the mound tonight in Oakland. Darvish was electrifying in his last outing against the Angels, as he shut them out over seven innings while scattering five hits and striking out 10. He had everything working that afternoon, and he’ll look to build off that tonight in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game.
The A’s will counter with their own potential ace in-the-making in Andrew Triggs. Triggs was originally slated to start Monday, but Sunday’s rainout pushed him back to tonight. The young right-hander has yet to allow an earned run in his two previous starts on the season, and his ERA since becoming a starter last season is a tidy 1.93. His unusual three-quarters delivery makes it tough for hitters to pick up the ball, especially fellow righties.
We’re going to take the under in this one with two quality starters taking the mound. The Athletics have been one of the few teams to give Darvish problems over the years, but we’re not going to go out on a limb and say they knock him around in this spot. Assuming the awful bullpen doesn’t blow it for him, Darvish leads the Rangers to a much-needed W here.
After kicking off 2017 with an excellent outing against the Mets, Wei-Yin Chen was battered by the same New York club in his second start. He lasted just three innings as the Mets blasted him for six runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs. Facing the same team twice in the same week tends to favor hitters, though, so we can give him a pass there. It won’t get much easier for him tonight, though, as he’ll have to do battle with a Mariners lineup with plenty of hitters that crush left-handed pitching.
The M’s will throw Yovani Gallardo to the mound for the third time. The veteran has looked rather mediocre through two starts against the Angels and Astros, as he gave up at least three runs and didn’t make it past the fifth in either game. He’s been extremely hittable over the last couple of years, and he’s really been equally bad against hitters from both sides of the plate.
The Marlins have been swinging hot bats lately, and we think that means Gallardo is likely in for another lackluster night. Chen can be volatile on the other side, but when his stuff is right he can be an ace-level pitcher. That said, it wouldn’t be particularly shocking if he got pounded, too.
Weather: 5 mph winds, high of 65 degrees, 8% chance of rain
Moneyline: Rockies +147, Dodgers -172
The Dodgers’ homestand continues tonight with the Rockies coming to town. Colorado is riding high after taking three of four from the Giants in San Francisco over the weekend, and they have the look of a team that plans on sticking around in the NL West race for a while.
Kyle Freeland will face the Dodgers for the second time in his first three big league starts. We know LA struggles against southpaws, and Freeland used that to his advantage in his first outing. He held the Dodgers to just a run on four hits over the course of six innings, though he did struggle in a big way last time out against the Padres (six earned runs in 4.2 innings). Freeland gets a major park upgrade here in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers will counter with a lefty of their own in Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s two starts this season both came on the road against tough offenses (Colorado, Chicago Cubs), and he was only able to go 4.2 innings in each outing. He’s been an excellent pitcher in the past for LA, though his last two seasons have been seriously marred by injuries. He’s been excellent at home in the past, and he should enjoy pitching here for the first time in 2017 after having dealt with Coors and Wrigley previously.
Freeland gave the Dodgers issues last time out, and those LA bats still haven’t shown they can consistently do damage against southpaws. They should have better success against Freeland now that they’ve actually faced him, and Ryu will enjoy his finest start to the young season in his first outing in his home digs. We’re leaning toward taking the under along with the Dodgers in this spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
San Diego Padres (+1.5)
Shelby Miller (1-1, 5.06 ERA) vs. Jarred Cosart (0-0, 3.86 ERA)
Weather: 10 mph winds, high of 66 degrees, 22% chance of rain
Moneyline: Diamondbacks -128, Padres +108
Here we have a matchup between a pair of middling right-handers. Shelby Miller hasn’t been awful to start the season, but he has been hittable. Miller has surrendered 12 hits through just 10.2 innings so far, with six runs coming against him in the process. The Dodgers crushed him in two outings last year, scoring nine runs on 18 hits over the course of just 9.2 innings.
Jarred Cosart will make another start for the Pads after looking surprisingly strong last week at Coors Field. He settled for the no-decision in the end, but held a potent offense scoreless over his four innings of work. He only threw 70 pitches, so it looks like San Diego planned all along to start him and then ride the bullpen for the rest of the game. There’s no telling how the Padres will approach that situation tonight.
We say all this as a means of getting to the point, which is that we expect this to be a fairly high-scoring game. Both starters may be able to annoyingly hang around, but both teams appear to be in good spots with the lumber in this one. Petco isn’t exactly a hitter’s haven, but expecting both of these pitchers to come out and dominate is unreasonable.
We like Arizona here, especially with the Padres having had to take an overnight red-eye flight from Atlanta last night.
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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