Giants vs Buccaneers – NFL Betting Pick for 10/1

by Jason Armstrong
on October 1, 2017

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the New York Giants in a matchup of two teams that badly need a win. The Giants enter the game at 0-3 and history tells us that any team that starts 0-4 can basically give up any dream of making the playoffs. The Bucs, on the other hand, are 1-1 but they are seeing the Atlanta Falcons run out to a 3-0 record and Atlanta could run away with the NFC South Division title if the rest of the Division doesn’t keep pace. This line opened at Tampa Bay -4.5 and has now dropped down to Giants +3. The game over/under total is 44 points. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:05 PM PST from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

This type of line move is why you need to do your research early in the week and jump on those opening lines if you like the number. The difference in Giants +3 and Giants +4.5 is huge in football handicapping. Anytime you get moved off of, or on to a three, it is a big deal. I am going to write this breakdown on the current consensus line but make sure you are shopping your lines early and late to try and get the number that best fits your bet.

New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 44

The media has buried the New York Giants so far, this year. Everyone is acting like the Giants are terrible this year, and really, they aren’t. Is 0-3 a good record? Of course not, but when you look at who the Giants have played and how those games have played out, the story isn’t as bad, and I think the G-Men are getting very undervalued. The Giants lost at Dallas in week one to a team that many have labeled as the favorites in the NFC. The game was a low-scoring competitive game. In week two the Giants hosted the Detroit Lions and lost 24-10. That game was another one that was close most of the day. It was a one-score game until the Lions pulled away in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t how the Giants wanted to open the season at home but the Lions look like they might be really good this year and I think they are absolutely a playoff team.

And then last week. The Giants lost on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles. To a 61-yard field goal at the buzzer. What would the media talking heads be saying if that miracle of a kick had missed and New York had won last week? I’m guessing it would be a very different conversation. So, we are basing our entire opinion of this team on the fact that they saw a rookie kicker boom a 61 yarder to beat them? Doesn’t seem overly fair to me. I am not trying to say that this Giants team is elite or even really good but they lost two road games to division rivals and all three of their losses have come to teams that I expect to make a run at the playoffs. I’m not giving them a pass, but I also am not going to overreact and start saying they stink, they don’t.

The Bucs have only played two games this season as the hurricanes in south Florida delayed the start to their season. The stomped a bad Chicago Bears team in week one, and the defense completely shut down the Chicago running game and also had a pick-six against new Bears QB Mike Glennon. It was a great performance against a not so great team.

Week two saw the Bucs come back to reality as they got rocked by the Minnesota Vikings. A Minnesota Vikings team without their starting quarterback. It was a sobering affair as the Tampa Bay run game forgot to show up. Their leading rusher on the day was Jaquizz Rodgers, who ran for 15 yards on just five carries. They got completely shut down.

I wouldn’t put the New York Giants in the same category as the Minnesota Vikings this season, but I don’t think they are really that far off. The Giants defense can be really good, and if the Buccaneers can’t run the ball this week like they couldn’t last week, they are going to struggle badly. It was almost as if Eli Manning forgot he had Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall until the fourth quarter of game three. Once he started forcing the ball into his big guys, they moved the ball up and down the field at will. I expect a similar game plan Sunday and expect both Beckham and Marshall to have big games. Eli Manning’s career record against the Bucs? 5-0. His best record against any team in the league. I think the Giants get their season back on track this week at the expense of the Buccaneers. Like I mentioned before I jumped all over this line when it opened at 4.5, but I still see a lot of value in backing the G-Men. Give me the Giants +3 points in this one.

The Bet: Giants +3 points
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