Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks NBA Pick for December 7th

by Taylor Smith
on December 7, 2018

Warriors vs Bucks Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of Live Odds feed:

Betting Data Golden State Warriors Milwaukee Bucks
Straight-up record 17-9 16-7
Home record 11-2 12-2
Away record 6-7 4-5
ATS record 12-14-0 12-10-1
ATS home record 7-6-0 9-4-1
ATS away record 5-8-0 3-6-0
O/U record 15-11-0 15-8-0
O/U home record 6-7-0 9-5-0
O/U away record 9-4-0 6-3-0

Wobbly Warriors

The Warriors were largely expected to win a third consecutive championship this season. Golden State still has the most loaded roster of any team in the league. Coming into the season, there was little reason to believe they’re beatable at this point.

However, things haven’t exactly been a breeze for the Dubs thus far. Golden State has dealt with injuries to key players as well as some potential discord in the locker room. Draymond Green and Kevin Durant were infamously at each other’s throats about a month ago. Things seem to have cooled on that front since, but any situation involving someone as volatile as Green is a ticking time bomb.

In spite of it all, the Warriors still have an excellent chance at finishing the regular season with the best record in the Western Conference. Golden State is 17-9 thus far, which puts them just a game behind the conference-leading Denver Nuggets. The West is incredibly tightly-packed, with 14 of the 15 teams in the conference within 2 games of the playoffs at this point. An awful lot can and will change between now and April.

The most important thing for Golden State right now is health. Stephen Curry recently returned from a nagging groin injury, and he showed us in the last game that he’s back to full strength. Curry absolutely devastated the lowly Cavaliers in his last outing, finishing with 42 points along with 9 rebounds and 7 assists in 34 minutes of action.

The Warriors have picked up back-to-back wins, but it’s probably worth noting they beat arguably the two worst teams in the league (Atlanta, Cleveland) along the way. Needless to say, tonight’s game in Milwaukee presents a far tougher challenge.

Curry has been phenomenal when healthy this season. The 2-time league MVP is averaging 30.2 points, 5.7 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game through his first 15 games. He’s Golden State’s most important player, and their offense has a way of getting stuck in the mud whenever he’s not out there.

Having Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson is a nice luxury, but the Warriors aren’t themselves unless Curry is out there doing his thing.

Rising Bucks

The Bucks have had plenty of talent on the roster for the last handful of years, but they could just never get the right coach. Finally, it seems as though they’ve found their man. The Bucks made the smart decision to hire ex-Hawks boss Mike Budenholzer during the offseason, and the results have been there already.

Milwaukee is off to a tidy 16-7 start, which has them in the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference behind Toronto.

The Bucks are the only team in the league that ranks in the top-6 in both offensive and defensive rating. Milwaukee has had the second-best offense in the league this point, as they have averaged 113.2 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors (114.1) have been better. The Bucks also have the No. 6-ranked defense, as they’re surrendering 103.2 points per 100 possessions.

Everything with Milwaukee begins and ends with the great Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak leads his team in scoring (27 points per game), assists (6), rebounding (12.9) and steals (1.5). He’s the only player in the league currently leading his team in 4 of the 5 major statistical categories.

The Warriors are strong defensively, but without Draymond Green they’re quite a bit more vulnerable. Giannis is borderline unguardable. He’s a legit 7-footer that handles the ball and can get to the rim whenever he wants. He has never quite developed a reliable 3-point shot, but he doesn’t really need one, either. Without Green around, the Warriors obviously have nobody with a prayer of stopping Antetokounmpo.

Green reportedly wants to try and play tonight, but the Warriors have him listed as questionable as of this writing. Steve Kerr said at shootaround that they’re likely to give Draymond “a few more days” to fully recover from his toe injury, so I’m expecting him to sit this one out once again. On the other side, the Bucks have listed Ersan Ilyasova as available to play aver he missed the last couple of games.

Vegas thinks we’ll have quite the high-scoring game here. The implied total is sitting at 240 points, which is the highest I’ve ever seen for an NBA game. The Bucks are currently listed as 1-point underdogs at home, as well. I like Milwaukee here. The Bucks are a tidy 12-2 at home so far, while the Warriors are just 6-7 to this point away from Oracle Arena.

You won’t often get the Bucks as underdogs at home, so I like Milwaukee outright. You can bet on them to cover the 1-point spread and the moneyline, as I think they’re going to win this game outright. I love the value you can get betting on the Bucks at +100 to win this one. Milwaukee is for real, and they’re going to prove that much tonight with a statement win over the 2-time defending champs.

Pick: Bucks +1

$100 Stake Could Win...

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, but he’s willing to take one for the team on that front every now and then.

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