Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears expert pick

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Pick – Green Bay (-195)
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The Green Bay Packers head to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon to resume the oldest rivalry in professional football. And this one comes with some added spice as the teams currently sit 1-2 in the standings in the NFC North division.

The Packers know how tough it is to go into Chicago and win, while the Bears want to prove to the Packers that they’re going to be in the middle of the division chase all season long. We’ll find out who comes out on top when the kickoff takes place on Sunday afternoon at 1 PM Eastern Time from Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Green Bay Packers -4 (-115) -195 Over 44.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears +4 (-105) +170 Under 44.5 (-110)
Betting Data Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears
2021 Record 4-1 3-2
2021 Home 2-0 2-0
2021 Away 2-1 1-2
2021 ATS 4-1 3-2
2021 ATS Home 2-0 2-0
2021 ATS Away 2-1 1-2
2021 O/U 2-3 1-4
2021 O/U Home 1-1 0-2
2021 O/U Away 1-2 1-2

Green Bay Chicago Preview

It doesn’t get more traditional in the NFL than the Bears versus the Packers, two original franchises who have been meeting twice a year forever. They first played all the way back in 1921. The series is also remarkably close for how often they’ve played, with Green Bay holding a slight lead at 101-95-6.

Green Bay started the year off on a down note, with an ugly loss to New Orleans where nothing went right. But they’ve come to life since, winning four games in a row. Last week was a thriller, as they went into Cincinnati and came away with an overtime win that easily could have gone the other way.

As for Chicago, they’ve been making the transition to rookie quarterback Justin Fields, and it hasn’t always gone smoothly. But the Bears are also playing well with wins in a row to move to 3-2. In fact, their victory last week over Oakland was probably their most complete performance to date this season.

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

There hasn’t been too much going on with the point spread since this line opened up at the beginning of the week. It started at Green Bay by 4, then made a brief move to 4 1/2. But it has since dropped back down to its original level of 4.

The over/under line has seen a bit more movement, all in a downward trend towards a more low-scoring game. Originally, the over/under sat at 46. But betters have been applying bearish pressure all week long to drop that number down to its current level at 44.5

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • The Packers have dominated the series over the last decade-plus, winning 21 of the last 26 contests, including the last four and nine of the last ten
  • The Packers also comes into the game on Sunday having covered the spread the last four times they played the Bears
  • The Bears have defeated the Packers twice at Soldier Field since the 2010 season
  • The over was the correct bet in both of the two games that these two teams played last season
  • In the last nine Packers-Bears games, the over has won out over the under six times

Green Bay Betting Trends

  • The Packers have won four in a row and also covered the spread in each one of those games
  • The over bet has come in at a rate of 67 percent over the last nine games played by the Packers
  • The Packers have won four of their last five road contests dating back to last season
  • In the last seven games that the Packers have played in the month of October, they’ve covered the spread at a rate of 86 percent
  • As a road favorite of between 3 1/2 and 7 points over the last three years, Green Bay has covered 80 percent of the time
  • They are 12-7 against the spread in road games since the beginning of the 2019 season
  • Green Bay has won 12 of their last 13 games against NFC North opponents and have covered the spread in nine of those games
  • The Packers are 6 games above .500 as a favorite in games played the last three seasons

Chicago Bears Betting Trends

  • The Bears have won both of their games played at home this season and have covered the spread in both as well
  • Each of the two Bears home games have gone under the projected points total number
  • The under has been the right bet in four of five Bears games this season
  • Chicago has covered only 30 percent of the time in their last ten games overall
  • As an underdog of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points since 2019, the Bears have only covered the spread at a rate of 29 percent
  • As a home underdog of between 3 1/2 and 7 points since 1993, Chicago is an impressive 24-11 against the spread
  • The Bears are just 5-11, both outright and against the spread, when facing teams with winning records over the past three seasons
  • Chicago has covered the spread only 44 percent of the time in home games since the 2019 season

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

The Bears defense has been playing very well the last few games, buoyed by a tough front seven. Khalil Mack is predictably causing havoc, but he’s been getting help this season from Robert Quinn, who is having a bounce-back season with 4 1/2 sacks. Those two will try to get at Aaron Rodgers as much as possible.

They’ll need to do that, because the Bears could have a hard time containing Davante Adams. The Packers star receiver is coming off his best game of the season, and Chicago no longer has Kyle Fuller as a shutdown man. It will have to be a team effort to contain him, although fast-improving corner Jaylen Johnson will step up.

It would help the Bears is they can get run-stuffing defensive tackle Akiem Hicks back from injury. Rodgers is hard enough to stop, but it gets much trickier if Packer backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are effective as well. That sets up play action, where Rodgers is as good as it gets in football.

Chicago’s has been playing it relatively vanilla, even since Fields took over. Many have criticized the play-calling because they haven’t taken advantage of the rookie’s running skills. Maybe they’ve been saving it for this crucial divisional game, as the threat of Fields could open up running lanes for backs Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert.

Green Bay is missing top corner Jaire Alexander, and they struggled last week to contain Bengals rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Although he’s a different type of receiver, maybe the Bears can use this game to get their go-to wideout, Allen Robinson II, untracked. He’s averaging just 36 yards receiving per game so far in 2021.

The over/under suggests a low-scoring affair, but these offense should be able to move it some. Chicago has what it takes to frustrate Rodgers a bit with their pass rush. But it always seems like he gets the ball last in games like this, which is why the Packers should be able to win a close one on the road.

Pick: Green Bay
Odds: -195
$100 Could Win You...$151.28

Green Bay at Chicago Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Green Bay -195, Chicago +170
  • Spread: Green Bay -4 (-115), Chicago +4 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 44.5 (Over and Under -110)
  • Prediction: Green Bay 26, Chicago 24
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

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